Ivan Advisories

[das8929]

70 MB??? Damn.... lets hope this wont happen with Ivan .

[Matthew5]

This could do the same after Jamaica?

[B-Bear]

The slight shear to the north that was messing with the outflow. You can see it clearly on the infrared.

I don't believe that was shear. I believe that was dry air interference from the mountains of western Hispaniola. That's why it went away as Ivan moved more west of Hispaniola.

[NorthGaWeather]

Given the TCHP out there west of Jamaica. Watch out everyone in its path.

[Guest]

There are 6 threads on the first page devoted to this topic. haha I find that rather funny. Lets see when another one is made.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 102332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2331Z
B. 17 DEG 11 MIN N
   76 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2436 M
D. 35 KT
E. 184 DEG 77 NM
F. 264 DEG 106 KT
G. 163 DEG 007 NM
H. 926 MB
I. 12 C/ 3058 M
J. 18 C/ 3037 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/70
O. .1 / 1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 29
   MAX FL WIND 118 KT SW QUAD 2034Z.

[lman]

This could be an event where many thousands sie in Jamaica.

[MWatkins]

And...despite the NHC track...I think Jamaica is going to see a direct landfall within the next few hours.

MW

[Brent]

Could regain Cat 5 as it passes Jamaica.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[soonertwister]

Just listening to a caller on Jamaica radio, he refused to evacuate after a mandatory order, AS DID MOST OF HIS NEIGHBORS.

These people are going to become fish food. Terribly sad.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 102332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2331Z
B. 17 DEG 11 MIN N
76 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2436 M
D. 35 KT
E. 184 DEG 77 NM
F. 264 DEG 106 KT
G. 163 DEG 007 NM
H. 926 MB
I. 12 C/ 3058 M
J. 18 C/ 3037 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/70
O. .1 / 1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 118 KT SW QUAD 2034Z.

[jpigott]

i've heard some here refer to a cat 4/5 landfalling hurricane as a "train wreck" i guess that's what we may be seeing in Jamiaca

[Fodie77]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 34a


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004



...Extremely dangerous Ivan strengthens as it approaches Jamaica...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of
Youth...and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 17.0 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 80 miles... 130
km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 11 mph...18 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion is expected to
bring the core of Ivan to near or over Jamaica tonight or early
Saturday and over the Cayman Islands late Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph...240
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated
terrain. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
24 hours...and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5
status as it passes Jamaica.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter
plane was 926 mb...27.34 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 76.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 11 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure... 926 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Matthew5]

Ivan could become Gilberts big brother!

[yoda]

...Extremely dangerous Ivan strengthens as it approaches Jamaica...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of
Youth...and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 17.0 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 80 miles... 130
km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 11 mph...18 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion is expected to
bring the core of Ivan to near or over Jamaica tonight or early
Saturday and over the Cayman Islands late Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph...240
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated
terrain. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
24 hours...and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5
status as it passes Jamaica.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter
plane was 926 mb...27.34 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 76.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 11 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure... 926 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Guest]

Repeated topics wonderful.

[MWatkins]

This HAS to be a typo. This is the exact poisiton of the 5PM advisory...hard to do that with such a distinct eye...I would think.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT4.0409102347

MW

[chris_fit]

yup.. called that too.

[FritzPaul]

What's up with the Lat/Long? Same as 5EDT Adv.

Disregard: problem corrected in another thread:

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43764

[greeng13]

with regards to the pressure difference with gilbert i have 2 questions
1) what category was he?
2) does a lower pressure increase the amount of wind damage? i would expect it would---or is it more related to flooding?