Earl Advisories

[Guest]

I thought charlie looked dead during the time earl was in the same place. It may look dead, but it will strengthen.

[Hurricanehink]

Remember Bonnie? It was practically dead for the night, but it restrengthened to a strong Tropical Storm after some serious convection developed. On the other hand, the storm looks pathetic.

[Wnghs2007]

It looks like Charley did. Charley did the exact same thing. Lost all of its convection and I thought It was going to become like bonnie. But later on more storms fired over the circulation and boom.

[HURAKAN]

Is not dead, just going through a bursting cituation. Look how a blob of convection is trying to pop into picture.

[PurdueWx80]

It's probably suffering from moisture inflow problems since a giant continent is so closeby. If it were a stronger system now that wouldn't matter, but it has to maintain its low level core before it can survive in that environment. If that 'blob' keeps blowing up, which it likely will since we are entering a convective night-time max, then he should be ok.

[kevin]

Great, my first thread is made big by a picture.
*cries in a corner*

Anyhow.

The stuff over the islands looks better than the popup of orange. It went from being ALL that color and concentrated to having massive amounts of outflow and little in the way of central convection.

We'll see..

[Stormsfury]

Western semicircle of the cyclone ...

Not good in the short term ...

FAVORED ...
1) Earl is slowing down some
2) Convection beginning to refire, meaning inflow is still present on the eastern side of the cyclone
3) Very healthy twist seen on satellite imagery

UNFAVORED ...
1) Still racing a fairly healthy clip
2) Uncertain if Earl has a purely closed low level circulation
3) No detectable west wind on satellite imagery
4) Close proximity to South America
5) High level westerly winds in SW Caribbean

[corpusbreeze]

Earl is just going through a weaking period. I would expect it to happen one or two more times before a strong strenghthing phase into a hurricane. Also the East Caribbean is a tough place for a storm to strenghten. Right before Jamacia Earl will start to gets act together.

[kevin]

Thanks stormsfury for posting the information! I noticed this, and posted my 'Earl looks dead' topic as a result. Doesn't look like a healthy system.

[Anonymous]

Despite its current lack of convection, its structure is quite impressive. It shouldn't take long for it to strengthen a bit more.

[kevin]

Those outflow boundaries are massive my friends.

[lilbump3000]

I dont think its dead yet. Just like with charley i mean he set so many examples. When he was in the eastern caribbean he had outflow boundaries coming from him as well, then when you wake up the next day he is a health looking tropical storm.

[Rainband]

Hope he is dying

[Stormsfury]

Yep, Purdue ... definitely looked like an MCV associated with a weak s/w embedded along the stalled boundary ...

SF

[kevin]

Something to watch. If convection fires tonight, might be a player. I saw a discussion of some sort that said a barocyclonic system might form on the front.

[Brent]

Poor Earl.

[hial2]

Still alive!! And refiring somewhat north of the previous center of circulation..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[kevin]

The refiring convection is right next to another outflow boundary. Probably will be yanked away from the true center.

[rockythehusky]

Now, I have spent the afternoon with Rainband for Weather 101, and from what I have learned today, I beleieve that the storm is weakening, but if it makes landfall, it will go to Mexico, but I could be wrong(<--- good possibility..lol)

[Wnghs2007]

The refiring convection is right next to another outflow boundary. Probably will be yanked away from the true center.

C H A R L E Y......D I D.....T H E.....S A M E......T H I N G!!!!!!