Ivan Advisories

#3801 Postby **Buck** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:22 pm

Theres not going to be anything left to rob from these people's homes.

Pray for Jamaica.

Website · #3802 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:22 pm

Sanibel wrote:Didn't expect this rebound after today's bad form.

It will hit Jamaica during an apparent intensification phase.

How this translates to the US approach makes me worry...

You going to evacuate if the current NHC track holds?

#3803 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:22 pm

Code: Select all

10/2345 UTC    17.3N   76.6W    T6.5/6.5        IVAN  --  Atlantic Ocean

I expect Ivan to get 7.0 as it gets out of Jamaica.

huricanwatcher · #3804 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:23 pm

Yorktown person talking ....... most windows gone, some people in shelters. The wind is taking down houses, trees and light poles.

people are now starting to flock to the shelters.
some are filling up and some of the shelters are prone to flooding and people are being directed elsewhere.

gangs of men are looting, armed and dangerous..

Roads are void of traffic and full of debri.. Trees and parts of roofs....

Just had to laugh they use 119 instead of 911 ... and are reminding people to report anytime of gunfire or looting. thats sad but the 119 thing caught me.. Can hear rain and wind as the police officer online is talking..

lilbump3000 · #3805 Postby **lilbump3000** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:23 pm

It should already be T7.0/7.0 how good the system looks right now.

#3806 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:24 pm

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

This could very well be a Cat. 5 before it hits Jamaica. In any case, the forecast is shifted back to the left a little (one track has been forecasted the past 3 nights, the other the past 2 mornings...bit odd.), and Cuba won't have a picnic with this either. Meanwhile, FL looking at a Cat. 3

Foladar · #3807 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:24 pm

Can I meet you guys also ?

Matthew5 · #3808 Postby **Matthew5** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:24 pm

A 6.5/6.5 is 127 knots but with a Pressure of 926 millibars. Boy is this going to be a close call.

das8929 · #3809 Postby **das8929** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:25 pm

You really don't want the eye coming for you.... after the hurricane it will be HELL.

#3810 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:26 pm

MWatkins wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:Significant wobbles to the West aswell. 300 motion the last 3 hrs .

Actually..it's an easy calculation.

5PM Position: 17.0 North 76.2 West
8PM Postion: 17.3 North 76.5 West

Change in North = .3 degrees
Change in West = .3 degrees

Going against a right triangle in that quad...you get two equal sides...or a 45 45 90 triangle. Bisect the 90 degree triangle and add 270 for the quadrant...

90/2 = 45+270 = 315 degrees.

MW

Mike, damn your good!

<RICKY>

Foladar · #3811 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:26 pm

hey MW, is the 315 motion bad for us in South Fla? I see your in SE Fla too..what's that mean for us?

Sanibel · #3812 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:28 pm

I'll be long gone while my keyboard is still warm...

Derek Ortt · #3813 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:49 pm

25KT over Cuba may be slightly overdoing the weakening, thoguh toehrwise, a well though out forecast

#3814 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:51 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
i will meet you in front of the fire station at palmetto and 67th for the eye...lol.

HAHA, I dunno how safe that would be...

If i had an SUV i would say sure, but i drive a small sports car, so i don't know how well i can do in the rain, and trees!! lol, i already have it tuned soo much i chirp on dry pavement let alone on wet pavement!

I Have been looking into different weather station software for my weather station... and i think i have found a really nice flash program to use... check it out here... as long as i have some sort of internet i will be on updating.. i have enough battery backup for 40+ hours... so i should be good

http://www.197358246.com
I know the website has nothing on it, but it does its function for now, and idon't have the time to design a proper webstie yet, but eventually i want to make a miami lakes weather site...

Here is a copy to a better representation of what the 18z gfs is showing...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

-Eric

#3815 Postby **NateFLA** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:54 pm

I am skeptical that it will only strengthen 5 knots from cuba to landfall... that is some very hot water.

flair · #3816 Postby **flair** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:54 pm

We'll probably have a good idea where he will go per the GFS tomorrow.

>5 days out- GFS smokes crack with his buddy, A98E

<5 days out- GFS enters rehab

<3 days out- GFS is hard to beat

LowMug · #3817 Postby **LowMug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:56 pm

Here is the 18Z GFS track...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

#3818 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:58 pm

Foladar wrote:Can I meet you guys also ?

no because das so so.

#3819 Postby **Dave C** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:20 pm

dynomat..... that's too funny!!!!

Rainband · #3820 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:24 pm

I am 82.7

Ivan Advisories

T number 6.5/6.5=127 kts

Ivan #12...over Tampa in 96

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