Ivan Advisories

[hesperhys]

"locked in on south Florida for the last few runs"

Give us a break, please... the last few runs of the GFS have ranged from the Bahamas, to Flamingo, to Cape Sable, to Naples, Ft Myers... yes its the southern half (mostly) of the peninsula... this is "locked in"? You "bring it on" boys are dreamers (albeit misguided ones)...

Last night ECMWF was the knight in shining armor for misanthropic Miamians who dream of CAT 5 drama... what happened to it...?

[StrongWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

That link posted at beginning of thread shows Ivan becoming very symettrical with a very clear eye. But does it look like it is curving more west?

SW

[kantuck]

Appears to be a wobble, not a trend.

[B-Bear]

I agree, it is likely a wobble. But you never can tell how these hurricanes are going to behave when they start slowing and interacting with land. It is POSSIBLE that he will ride right along the southern coast of Jamaica. To tell you the truth, I'm not so sure that isn't the worse of the two scenarios for Jamaica because he wouldn't lost any intensity, and he will be heading for the Caymans and Cuba as a cat 5.

[Stormsfury]

12z ECMWF further west than the 00z run, and looking more like the 12z CMC ... the 18z GFS is still fairly right of of the guidance, but still becoming a little more clustered as we near to the events ... and right now, points more from the Panhandle of Florida to the Peninsula ...

Linked below are the previous 12z (9/10/04) and 18z (9/10/04) guidance spread ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/Ivan091012z.png

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/Ivan091018z.png

[shimmer]

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N 77.9W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.3N 79.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.4N 80.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 81.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

[tampawx]

Just got a message from NHC saying that the forecast advisory was released in error early and to disregard the advisory until the full 11pm advisory package is released....OOOPPPS!!!

[feederband]

Ir looking real scary for the island tonite....

[dennis1x1]

looks like the forecast shear is continued.......drops to a cat 3 in the gulf....hopefully a 1 or 2 by us landfall...

[shimmer]

Apparently, TPC is shaken.

[calidoug]

Dennis, you've been going on about non-existant shear all day.

Earlier this morning and afternoon you were telling us all that Ivan was weakening, when it was strengthening.

[gravitylover1]

I was wondering about that other low in the Atlantic too Mike. Could you (or someone else) expand on the options that may create.

[dennis1x1]

ivan was and did weaken...and then restrengthen..

all the models and official forecasts develop significant shear in the gulf...thankfully....

not cheerleading..just passing along info...dont take it personal.

[calidoug]

It had weakened overnight, and was restrengthening at the very time you were claiming there was shear.

[dennis1x1]

ok....bandwidth cant handle arguments so this will be my last response........restrengthening began after my post this morning....at the bottom of the weakening trend...

as for the "non-existant shear" forecast..

from the 5pm nhc discussion:

Once in the Gulf
of Mexico...the shear is forecast to increase and Ivan should
gradually weaken.


thankfully.

[Possum Trot]

http://tinyurl.com/4q8dy

What are the latest corrdiantes?

[Sanibel]

Ivan is ripping the south shore of Jamaica right now at 150mph...

Anyone posting that "Ivan is missing Jamaica" is ignorant...

[dennis1x1]

150mph probably within a few thousand feet of the eyewall...definitely not onshore yet......still hope for a continued westward bobble leaving these catastrophic winds offshore...

[Guest]

How did this deserve a topic?? wonder why the site shuts down.

[Stormcenter]

"locked in on south Florida for the last few runs"

Give us a break, please... the last few runs of the GFS have ranged from the Bahamas, to Flamingo, to Cape Sable, to Naples, Ft Myers... yes its the southern half (mostly) of the peninsula... this is "locked in"? You "bring it on" boys are dreamers (albeit misguided ones)...

Last night ECMWF was the knight in shining armor for misanthropic Miamians who dream of CAT 5 drama... what happened to it...?

CONGRATULATIONS THAT WAS THE BEST POST OF THIS WEEK!!!
IT'S NICE TO SEE SOMEONE ELSE POINT OUT THE OBVIOUS.
THANK YOU!!!!