Ivan Advisories

[LCfromFL]

Wow.....in the discussion it says "...However...Ivan should remain a
major hurricane until landfall in Florida." He's certainly not sugarcoating anything, huh?

[Anonymous]

I STILL say a landfall hit between Pensacola/Mobile, to Panama City.

I went out on a limb, back on Monday and called this location on this forum.

[Ixolib]

Seems as though may not get pulled in and make actual landfall?????

...almost looks like it's purposely avoiding the northward trend and going around the land masses. There was a post earlier about the land affecting the storm when it's half on, half off. Here' that hi res loop:http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

[Brent]

Wow.....in the discussion it says "...However...Ivan should remain a
major hurricane until landfall in Florida." He's certainly not sugarcoating anything, huh?

As a weaker Cat 3(yes still bad but much better than a Cat 5).

Poor Cuba. When is the last Cat 5 to hit there?

[Buck]

Depending on how strong of a cat 5 it is and how fast its moving when it hits Cuba, it might still be a cat 4 when it hits Florida.

[dennis1x1]

although there is no science to the "land avoidance theory"......jamaica will take anything it can get im sure!!

and its just gone from no chance to some chance of a miss now.....still expect a north jog stairstep to continue..but the west move has lasted a couple hours now and may have saved many lives.

[Dean4Storms]

I know some will yell a wobble, but it has been a big wobble for 4 hours now. It looks as if Ivan's center will stay just along the south shore of Jamaica or catch the very SW corner. If this present movement continues overnight the forecasted track will have to come west.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm still sticking to my position the last two days...between Pensacola and Panama City Beach. However, I will say that this is the first day I've been hearing and reading scary stuff of this thing coming much more West--and it's not just on this site.

[calidoug]

Yeah, the Cat 3 US landfall estimate is premised upon a long run up to the panhandle in an adverse environment.

Should Ivan go into Naples/Miami instead, it would probably not weaken nearly as much.

[mobilebay]

The GFS continues to indicate a landfall over S Fl. We will have to watch this carefully to see if this trend continues as its been locked in on south florida the last few runs.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif

That right of track solution has continued for the last two storms. The Gfs can be counted upon, to make a Noreaster out of a TC. Remember two days ago it had ivan east of cuba now headed out to Sea.

[MW98GT]

from the 8pm to the 11pm, the direction has been 308 degrees acording to the fixes.

[LakeToho]

Its following the NHC Path almost exactly..

[calidoug]

I'd say "The Alley" and "Lionel Town" are marked for trouble... notice how low-lying that southern peninsula is.

[BUD]

Why does it seem that almost at every advisory Ivans Pressure seems to fall like a rock , and he gets stronger

[calidoug]

The GFS called the Frances Bahamas stall 3-4 days out.

[Brent]

Why does it seem that almost at every advisory Ivans Pressure seems to fall like a rock , and he gets stronger

Because he's rapidly strengthening.

[melhow]

...after plowing Cuba as a 5, according to local Tampa channel 8 11p forecast...

[Brent]

...after plowing Cuba as a 5, according to local Tampa channel 8 11p forecast...

That is incorrect. The Monday Evening position is NW of Key West as a Cat 3 and then the Tuesday Evening position is just inland between St. Marks and Cedar Key as a Cat 3. No Cat 4 indicated.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Good grief....look at Grand Cayman. It's a speck of dust compared to Jamaica. I hope they get a little lucky tomorrow!

[melhow]

http://www.wfla.com/

just posting what was reported here in Tampa...