Ivan Advisories

[hesperhys]

The GFS called the Frances Bahamas stall 3-4 days out.

So does this mean that you think GFS is especially likely to be correct in its 3-day-out-track for Ivan? I didn't think so.

[Brent]

...after plowing Cuba as a 5, according to local Tampa channel 8 11p forecast...

That is incorrect. The Monday Evening position is NW of Key West as a Cat 3 and then the Tuesday Evening position is just inland between St. Marks and Cedar Key as a Cat 3. No Cat 4 indicated.

Maybe that's just the local mets. forecast. It's not like their forecast has to be identical to that of the NHC.

But its a forecast nevertheless. They are meterologists too. I don't see any pro met icons on anyone's name.

I'm not saying he's wrong. I have a suspicion this won't be a Cat 3 in the Gulf either, but I just wanted to say the NHC didn't say that when it sounded like they did.

[mobilebay]

Almost exactly? :think:

I know... I know... I know how you feel.

[FLAgirl]

I'm sure most of the island (at least the southern half) is experiencing terrifying winds. Most of those poor people live in shack type houses. I think the news from Jamaica will be horrible. My prayers are with them.

[CaluWxBill]

Not to be patronizing. but the lower the pressure the stronger the hurricane BUD. Low Pressure air rises, and the lower the pressure the faster it rises, therefore the faster air comes in towards the center to replace that rising air. The spin of the storm is created by the rotation of the Earth.

[Brent]

Hurricane force winds being reported island-wide according to the 11pm advisory...

[dennis1x1]

nope....no way the shear is hitting now.....and not for another couple of days.....according to the nhc anyway...

passing on official forecasts about as far from -removed- as it gets.....

[Guest]

As I recall, I posted a message to the affect, that Ivan would go to the south of Jamaica, of course I got bashed for it. Either way its bad news for Jamaica, hope they come out as safe as possible.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Jamaica is hardly being "missed". The northern portion of the eyewall is raking the south coast, and it is likely to get worse.

They are missing the eye, though...It's clearly visible with the satellite loop....

[melhow]

Again...

"according to local Tampa channel 8 11p forecast..."

LOCAL TAMPA CHANNEL 8 11P FORECAST

Geez....

[dennis1x1]

the next hour is key...if the westward motion can continue for that long there is a chance of a miss...

the eyewall is NOT being experienced on land at this time....that much is clear.

hurricane force winds ARE being experienced inland.....150mph wind near the eyewall are NOT.....

[das8929]

Which is bad news, since they get the bad winds, but the hurricane itself hardly weakens.

[LakeToho]

ALMOST EXACTLY... -removed- wont bring it to you..

[FLAgirl]

It's calm in the eye. It's the surrounding eyewall that has the highest winds, and the southern coast is getting that now.

[ColdFront77]

1) Sea-surface temperature at or above 79°F (26°C), above 83°F (28.3°C) is even better for rapid development

2) Light or non-existent vertical wind shear

3) Reasonable forward speed (below 20 mph, although Claudette eventually did develop moving faster than usual for a time)

4) Warm, moist environment; absence of dry air

5) Upper Tropospheric Anticyclone enhancing outflow

6) Strong Low Level Circulation (LLC)

7) Abundant cumulus convection

[mobilebay]

As I recall, I posted a message to the affect, that Ivan would go to the south of Jamaica, of course I got bashed for it. Either way its bad news for Jamaica, hope they come out as safe as possible.

YEs I do recall . Good Call.

[Sean in New Orleans]

As I recall, I posted a message to the affect, that Ivan would go to the south of Jamaica, of course I got bashed for it. Either way its bad news for Jamaica, hope they come out as safe as possible.

I'm not worried about being bashed...nobody knows me on this board, who is instant messaging me as I post, my experience in weather, my age, etc. It's what makes the board fun, IMO. I'm comfortable with my own positions, knowledge, and experience and enjoying reading others, as well.

[Foladar]

nope....no way the shear is hitting now.....and not for another couple of days.....according to the nhc anyway...

passing on official forecasts about as far from -removed- as it gets.....

So saying the shear is hitting when it's strengthening (like you did the past day, I'm a watcher, I know) - is telling the forecast now?? I never saw anything about shear except from you..you sound confused

[dennis1x1]

the northern eyewall is a good 30 miles offshore still......IT IS NOT ON THE SOUTHERN COAST.....

the 150mph winds are probably confined to just a couple of miles from the actual eye....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[canegrl04]

Theres not a met alive who could accurately predict hurricane intensity 48 hours in advance. Reference Charley Ivan could be a 3,or a 4 or a 5