Ivan Advisories

rbaker · #4121 Postby **rbaker** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:11 am

another post in here said that wfor tv wherever that is said that kingston had a wind gust of 186 mph. I don't know about that report if it was estimated or recorded. Frankly i don't think the anamometer could record that type of wind.

Guest · #4122 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:11 am

Its called land interaction, we will not know true movement until the storm clears Jamaica to the west.

Derek Ortt · #4123 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:21 am

mainly done by John Cangialosi this morning

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

I will have the graphics available in about 5-10 minutes

Windfall · #4124 Postby **Windfall** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:22 am

Ivan is already facing light steering currents. i think the models have underestimated the ULL. MAYBE NOT....WE'LL SEE.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Coral Palms · #4125 Postby **Coral Palms** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:22 am

Purdue- West of Cape San Blas would be a nightmare! There would be no more Cape left.
I know that TS Isadore washed out part of the road at the "stumphole" (the bend on the Cape) and threatened to make the Cape an island.
Here is an aerial of the stump hole
http://www.grabarek.net/indiansummer/ae ... las_08.jpg
Notice the road is basically on the beach.

#4126 Postby **Deenac813** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:23 am

If the models have underestimated the ULL what does that mean?

Derek Ortt · #4127 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:24 am

just a heads up, a type has been corrected in the 36 and 48 hour positions

catzmeow · #4128 Postby **catzmeow** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:25 am

You rock, Derek. Thank you. Your earlier forecasts gave us a heads up that we needed to prepare, and allowed us to beat the rush at the stores on alot of basic supplies. Alot of Tallahasseeans had been watching the NHC and thinking we didn't need to prepare at all. Now they're a little panicked.

Thanks again.

Coral Palms · #4129 Postby **Coral Palms** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:27 am

Here is a close up photo of the road next to the water
http://www.floridabeachhouse.net/08%29% ... 0Beach.htm

#4130 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:27 am

Nothing has changed, I still take Ivan over the very western tip of Cuba and then northward toward the Panhandle with a landfall come late Tues. or very early Wed. AM. Most all of the model guidance has come into agreement with me this AM with a spread of Landfalls from Pensacola to Appy. Bay. I predict Ivan to be a 125 mph hurricane at landfall with some strengthening very possible as he gets over the continental shelf in the gOM where water is shallow but very warm. My bullseye is Tyndall AFB just east of PC. FL.

x-y-no · #4131 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:27 am

He does seem to be slowing down. Partly this may be an artifact of the ERC, but I don't think it's entirely an illusion.

#4132 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:27 am

At least we'll be able to see it real well!

From NHC recon, 9:15am DST
FYI..GOES-E SUPER RAPID SCAN WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL

1843Z FOR RESEARCH PURPOSES OVER HCN IVAN...

Guest · #4133 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:28 am

check out your water vapor loop, you'll see that the same subtropical high that pushed Ivan west lastnight has help put the brakes on his forward speed, this will change as the high will begin to expand back to the northwest as the patterns shift

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#4134 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:28 am

Nice image! Yeah, I don't think there would be much of that road left even if a Cat 1 or 2 hit.

Windtalker · #4135 Postby **Windtalker** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:30 am

meaning????

chris_fit · #4136 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:33 am

The west jog has a huge TEMPORARY effect on the models which bring it way west of where it will actually go and giving the residents of S/Central west Florida a false sense of security. I expect models to shift back to the EAST by the 11pm advisory.

Guest · #4137 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:35 am

meaning, slower forward speed Sat & Sun to the west, resuming to 10mph within 36-48 hrs, wnw then eventually nw

#4138 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:37 am

So is it the continous west jog with respect to most of the models that has kept them too far to the right for about a week now? Seriously, I don't necessarily buy that comment from the NHC about a west jog having such a big impact on the models. You are entitled to your opinion, but none of us will know what track Ivan is more likely to take until Monday at the earliest. The GFS and others have constantly trended west w/ with this storm over the past day or two, that has nothing to do w/ Ivan's W to WNW long-term movement overnight.

Derek Ortt · #4139 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:39 am

forecast graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

glad that I have been able to increase some awareness regarding this very dangerous hurricane

stormy1959 · #4140 Postby **stormy1959** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:40 am

This is my first post on this forum. I have already learned a lot from the infinitely more informed posters. Please indulge me with my totally un-learned opinion on what may happen next with Ivan. As I have often watched an object floating in a stream of water veer around obstacles and then regain its original direction. I know this has probably been pointed out already by other posters. It will be interesting to see if the track of Ivan now shifts more east and picks up some speed after its encounter with Jamaica. Any possibility of even a little sling shot effect taking place?

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