Ivan Advisories

[Dean4Storms]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/avntc2.c ... =Animation

[FloridaDiver]

Can you give a little bit of meteorological reasoning as to why you think a turn north is coming "soon"?

In another thread, I think it’s the “EXPECT RIGHT TURN” thread there is the meteorological reasoning from others on the board, or educated opinions of course based on sat loops. As I see it the basic reasoning is if the trough from the Midwest keeps digging south as it appears it is in the posted sat loop links and the ULL over the Bahamas or in that general vicinity is maintained and if Ivan slows down and exits Cuba, the trough may be right in front of Ivan and with the ULL to the East this may cause him turn north or even maybe kick him NNE if the ULL is weaker. Just my opinion of course.

[Brent]

The trend is NOT my friend. I don't want another Opal...

[sea oat]

i'm not liking this! i find it ironic my insurance company, florida select, sent me a postcard yesterday stating it was the middle of hurricane season with their phone number and to keep it with my insurance paperwork.

[WESTCHESTERPA]

I haven't seen any of the models with this track, but latest imagery seems to support this

[B-Bear]

No.

[Brent]

No.

[Dean4Storms]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[WESTCHESTERPA]

I beg to differ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Radar]

Dean,


You said you have some concerns Ivan could go further west. May I ask how far west could Ivan go if the ridge over the Atlantic does strengthen? I know you may not want to committ to a western shift at this time but I was just curious in your educated estimate.

[B-Bear]

No. He has already started heading NW. Show me a model that forecasts him to hit the Yucatan.

[otowntiger]

All I'm hearing here is west, west, west!!!!! From the sounds of it he's heading for Texas/Mexico. You northern gulf-coasters should be able to relax now.

[das8929]

Wow, thats just as much chance as it hitting NC head on!

[CFLCaneWatcher]

WOW!!!!!!! Charley did the same thing!!!! It must be the mojo! Anyway, lucky for them. ALTHOUGH i HATE TO SEE ANYONE INJURED NOR HURT, i LOVE A GREAT STORM!!!!!!!!!!! I pray for the safey of all in harm's way!!!!

[btsgmdad]

You posted the water vapor. Look at it, the High reaches down into the Yucatan Channel. Unless it gives soon the turn NW can't happen.

[WESTCHESTERPA]

no models to support this, but definitely not moving NW. I coudn't draw a line straighter West.

[das8929]

Haha thats as much chance as it turning around and hitting Haiti.

[WESTCHESTERPA]

I agree. If high dose not give soon, Ivan's going West of Cuba, and might cross Yucatan

[B-Bear]

Unless the high doesn't move soon? He's moving at 8 mph. He could head west for a couple of days and still not hit Yucatan. That high will move away and Ivan will track north.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

models have come into agreement with you? ha ha if that is not one of the most amusing things i've read here. then your nickname. amusing.