Ivan Advisories

#4221 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:22 am

B-Bear wrote:Unless the high doesn't move soon? He's moving at 8 mph. He could head west for a couple of days and still not hit Yucatan. That high will move away and Ivan will track north.

Obviously those "models" the NHC worships are seeing something that you are not because they continue to shift further west. But don't lose
hope they may just as easily shift back east.

Website · #4222 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:23 am

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphic ... 1538W5.gif

Even going on the western edge of the projected path it would miss the Yucatan by a good bit.

Derek Ortt · #4223 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:25 am

well, if we dont see a nrothward component to the motion soon, we are going to be in for a major bust here

B-Bear · #4224 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:28 am

Stormcenter wrote:
B-Bear wrote:Unless the high doesn't move soon? He's moving at 8 mph. He could head west for a couple of days and still not hit Yucatan. That high will move away and Ivan will track north.

Obviously those "models" the NHC worships are seeing something that you are not because they continue to shift further west. But don't lose
hope they may just as easily shift back east.

Like I said, show me a model that takes it to the Yucatan.

WESTCHESTERPA · #4225 Postby **WESTCHESTERPA** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:29 am

Ivan's will be further West than the current Model with the most Western Track soon. Models are completely missing this one.

canegrl04 · #4226 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:29 am

I think Ivan could go thru the Yucatan channel barely touching the tip of Cuba

das8929 · #4227 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:30 am

I think it will go a bit east of Havana.

B-Bear · #4228 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:30 am

If it makes you feel better, keep saying it.

WESTCHESTERPA · #4229 Postby **WESTCHESTERPA** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:33 am

This may wind up being an Adam Vinaterri special: Long, and straight through the goal posts.

I'm convince Ivan will miss Cuba at the very least.

ExtinctionEvent · #4230 Postby **ExtinctionEvent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:34 am

Does this mean we have to start sending prayers out to the Yucatanites?

Ziplock48 · #4231 Postby **Ziplock48** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:34 am

Check this out: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... geflt.html

in the middle of the loop you can see a suggestion of those amazing meso scale vortices that appearred in Isabel when she was an annular hurrican last year.

Remeber that crazy pentagram?

Looks like Ivan has it too.
Zip

B-Bear · #4232 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:35 am

WESTCHESTERPA wrote:This may wind up being an Adam Vinaterri special: Long, and straight through the goal posts.

I'm convince Ivan will miss Cuba at the very least.

Okay, now that's a different story. I can see the possibility of Ivan tracking around the western edge of Cuba. But bear in mind that Ivan has taken a western track EVERY TIME he goes through an ERC. And as soon as he completes the ERC he has taken a more northerly track. So I'll be looking for a more northerly track as he completes this ERC.

btsgmdad · #4233 Postby **btsgmdad** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:35 am

Has Ivan become annular?

#4234 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:37 am

He's definitely getting there...again. Looks to be fighting off that dry air to the NW and the outflow is expanding and becoming more circular. Ivan may duel the likes of Gilbert after all. Ok, time to head to the football game...can't wait to get back at 4.

B-Bear · #4235 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:37 am

I can't tell if those are mesovortices or if it is just cloud cover Ivan hasn't cleared out of his eye yet.

CaluWxBill · #4236 Postby **CaluWxBill** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:38 am

Who said no models take it west?

bwstg · #4237 Postby **bwstg** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:39 am

B-Bear wrote:
WESTCHESTERPA wrote:This may wind up being an Adam Vinaterri special: Long, and straight through the goal posts.

I'm convince Ivan will miss Cuba at the very least.

Okay, now that's a different story. I can see the possibility of Ivan tracking around the western edge of Cuba. But bear in mind that Ivan has taken a western track EVERY TIME he goes through an ERC. And as soon as he completes the ERC he has taken a more northerly track. So I'll be looking for a more northerly track as he completes this ERC.

Yeah, everytime I go to the bathroom I go left side up or right side up, it depends. Just kidding. I understand what you are saying, but I still say it will head nw then ne just above tampa.

kevin · #4238 Postby **kevin** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:42 am

Has the fungus got to your brain, Mr. Coldcut?

WESTCHESTERPA · #4239 Postby **WESTCHESTERPA** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:42 am

If it continues on this course for another 7-8 hrs or so, it will have to stop on a dime, and make a 90 degree turn straight N to hit cuba. I'm sticking with a Cozumel landfall.

Derek Ortt · #4240 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:43 am

just checked the 12Z obs and the ridge north of Ivan continues to hold. There is a wekaness before the Yucatan, so this shouldn't make it that far west, but this could very well move very near or over Grand Cayman

Ivan Advisories

vortices in new giant eye, reminds of Isabel

Rdige north of Ivan is holding

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