Ivan Advisories

[SwampDawg]

Mathew5....I agree with watching the trend. I think we really put too much into models too far out. Everyone on the Gulf Coast should be watching this storm very close.

[Pebbles]

ok...does that mean anything special? Does that say anything about the storm?

[das8929]

The slow movement and the drift around Jamaica must be confusing those models...

[Matthew5]

This wonderful news for Cuba!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[Sanibel]

OK. On second look I'll buy a slow sweeping west trend for now...

[Shullate]

Isn't this just east of where Gaston formed?

[rsm]

I, too, don't get the "Hopefully they will get back on track" quote.???

As for Ivan slowing down, was this not predicted days ago and factored into the forecast?

It seems like the FSU superensemble is really setting the standards for these models, seems like they all come around to it (some sooner than later). But from anecdotal remarks on this board regarding the FSU SE and other published reports regarding it, it seems like it has been the west outlier for some time, most closely followed by the nogaps, and everyone else is just playigf catch-up.

I know that the SE is not a model in and of itself but a conclusion based on all the models after throwing out their flaws and unsupportable biases, but if it is saying this thing is going west then that's what I'll believe...sort of......I guess......maybe???????

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Isn't this just east of where Gaston formed?

EXACTLY!!

[Brent]

****.

Your 96-hour position is just a little east of here still as a 75 mph hurricane.

[millibar]

...as I posted last PM!

I think this sucker MAY be trending towards a more N/NW bend SOON!

Really hope I'm wrong, and that the latest model run is correct< I know what its like to have multipke tropical visitors in a short timespan, and the SE is too wet to absorb anything over 30 MPH!!

Regards,
Millibar

[air360]

ok, before we all freak out about this...where is this ULL suppose to be heading...as in direction and speed and track.....i dont want everyone getting all worked up if this thing is moving north and suppose to just get bumped out of the way by ivan and just go up into the N atlantic...it would not be worth the added stress over something that would not even bother anyone

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's certainly possible....this could be a close call, but, Ivan just may enter the Gulf through the Channel. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[alicia-w]

Well I, for one, am not at all crazy about this latest possibility. It just plain bites. Cant it stall somewhere and just peter out?

[GoneWiththeWind]

TWC just said,"it's really just a bit of circulation with a few thunder storms forming behind it"! Is that kind of like the atmosphere is having a bit of the vapors(Southern for having bad gas)?

[wabbitoid]

I think the important point is that Ivan has a chance of going quite far westward, and it wouldn't hurt for people in Lousiana to make sure the ol' "Hurricane Cupboard" is ready, the car is full of gas, etc.

This storm has been billed as definately for Florida for a long time, and I would assume those to the west have been a bit complacent.

[Derek Ortt]

really didnt have much of a choice with this one

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

graphics in about 5-10 minutes

[corpusbreeze]

I saw the same thing and postedit , but was flamed because I said maybe the west coast of the GOM is not off the hook. The CMC has done a pretty good job with this storm, but seems to be overlooked most of the time. Charley was turned by a strong out of the ordinary cold front, not some weak trof that is suppose to develope in the GOM. Ivan will make further west, how far is the question.

[ilmc172pilot]

lol....looks to me like shes got more than vapors......lol...that term cracks me up

[rainstorm]

you have been very consistent so far