Ivan Advisories

[Josephine96]

where do you think is his final destination, wind..?

[das8929]

IMO, i dont think so. This thing has been intense for quite awhile. Camille suddenly exploded. Plus, the SST's and the shear isnt too favorable, or so Ive heard.

[Praxus]

If it was going to be a direct hit by a cat 5 I'd sure as hell be in the vault
if I could.

[kevin]

We're all entitled to our own opinions.. even if there are no facts to back them up..<<

That is a right the ignorant, dogmatic, and stupid have held for many years.

[Chilly_Water]

BTW-It's absolutley god-awful music.

[seannymac]

sorry I am nervous and kept clicking, please forgive me.

[Brent]

I live in a stilt house on Big Pine Key in the Florida Keys. We have evacuated to my parents in Homestead. Do you all think the keys will truly be affected by Ivan. By affected, I mean cat 2 or above in the keys. I am worried that this slow down in motion indicate a shift in movement to a more N movement. What is the chance of the storm coming our way?

If the NHC track happens, you'll just have a brush with this system, not a direct hit. That could still change though...

[Buck]

It almost looks like Camille except for the strange outflow situation on the NE side.

I think it might reach Mitch strength (180mph/905mb) but I don't know about Camille. Thats awfully powerful and awfully rare.

[Matthew5]

Yes there is always a chance!(I think are little friend is droping he load but he is making it stronger!)

[Extratropical]

Tampa is out of the woods?

[Foladar]

What about the Homestead area where they evacuated to, how would their weather be?

[Josephine96]

Kevin..

It was a joke lol

[artinla]

Derek,

I respect your forecasting more than any other here, but I have to respectfully disagree with your statement on the tides. A two foot difference in sea level can mean MILES less flooding inland along the rivers. Storm surge generally doesn't impact inland flooding that much, but the tide level certainly does during a hurricane/flash flood scenario. Frederic hit us at high tide and although it only had 130mph winds, the river went over the roof of my house. I could have at least saved the items in my attic if the tide had been a couple feet lower! LOL

Keep up the good work forecasting, I think you had Ivan pegged days ago.

[seannymac]

Well in Homestead, I feel that I really do not have to worry about a storm surge so much. If it looks as if it is coming this way as a 4 or 5, we will be out of here also.

[Josephine96]

Now if any of you are wondering..

This thing is eventually forecast to make a north turn.. I believe when it does.. It'll also have an easterly component..

Thus.. the NE movement bringing this sucker over this way

[Hurricanehink]

Sadly, there is a chance... It is already at 165. It will have to do it soon before Cuba, but after the last few hours of rapid intensification, it is possible.

[Brent]

Chance, but I don't think so.

Camille was 190 MPH SUSTAINED.

[TS Zack]

They most definitely will trend West. Computer models continue West they will go West.

[Buck]

I wouldn't worry too much if its well built, but don't let your guard down.

[Josephine96]

I said RIGHT not LEFT lol