Ivan Advisories

Possum Trot · #4761 Postby **Possum Trot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:48 pm

Here we go again. Power is out in the eastern part of Grand Cayman due to a fallen tree. Officials are apologizing.

mobilebay · #4762 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:48 pm

through the first 42 hours. note- it appears to stall Ivan near it's current location. however, this run already appears to the right of track.

Opal storm · #4763 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:49 pm

das8929 wrote:Guys, this is a wobble, not a trend. Hurricanes dont move in straight lines. It is stairstepping, average it out its WNW.

Yes,but these wobbles can have a huge impact on the forecasted track.

flightpath · #4764 Postby **flightpath** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:49 pm

Just outside of New Orleans, don't see anyone rushing to board up houses just yet. NHC has been pretty good this year - this thing misses us by 100 miles to the east at least. I hope.

Foladar · #4765 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:49 pm

What do you mean the new GFS is east?? fill us "newbies" in please

I know it's a model, but unsure what exactly you mean? The first 42 hours is more east, but what will that mean?

Guest · #4766 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:49 pm

It's also funny to point out that the same people posting on one runs over to the next one to post again. SO with that said, how does having to post the same thing once instead of going to each one not save space????

#4767 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:50 pm

overall, Ivan has moved about 32 miles WNW over the last 3 hours.
1730Z=17.9N 78.9W to
2044Z= 18.1N 79.3W
if Ivan "stays the course" he should be about
00Z= 18.3N 79.7W
That would be right on target with the tropical suite and behind (just a hair south and east) the UKMET.

Foladar · #4768 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:50 pm

It's just a wobble.

das8929 · #4769 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:50 pm

Can you give the link?

rbaker · #4770 Postby **rbaker** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:50 pm

well the model data is only as good as the people who put the data in the computers. In other words, I think the thread is saying the atmosphere is always changing ull's forming and in this case a high pressure at mid levels has formed from gom east across fla. It's true what they are saying the 5 day is just to wide a gap of a cone. If ivan keeps going west in longitude they will be forced to make another shift to the west, which all of these modes have been doing every 6 hrs. I believe it gives people a false sense its not coming my way one day and then the next it is, and then the next it isn't. As for the models, one model does better than the other depending on what storm you take the history of it on.

Lockhart · #4771 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:51 pm

Intensification of storms is an easy result of Global Climate Change. It's what is expected. I suppose we have been in an upswing in the last 20 years without GCC (who knows?), but it's clearly much worse than it would have been. :-(

Matthew5 · #4772 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:51 pm

The eye has become Clear. While outflow has become even more defined. Also with the 17 nmi wide eye falling apart in the 20 nmi wide eye pulling in. Which by the clearing of the eye it appears that this thing is bombing. I expect that the recon will find 170 knots at flight level in 907 millibar pressure?

#4773 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:51 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

EDIT:

The GFS is very good in short term... it runs on three resolutions. THe first few days are run in high resolution, with very good accuracy. Then the next few days is a little more vague, and then after that is the third resolution, even more vague.

They have to do that because the GFS is run 4 times a day, and they do not have the copmuting resources or time to be able to run the entire 16 day model at the highest resolution... so they degrade it in three steps to allow it to be run at its 4 time interval.
-Eric

manofsteele79 · #4774 Postby **manofsteele79** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:51 pm

And the new GFDL has landfall on the AL/MS border. I'm not sure either of these models are reliable past 48-72 hours.

Rainband · #4775 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:51 pm

rainstorm wrote:i think the stronger it gets, the more west it will go

strong canes go poleward :eek:

#4776 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:52 pm

Uhhh...it is still going over or just west of the western tip of Cuba...that is hardly any change so far.

Hyperstorm · #4777 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:52 pm

canegrl04 wrote:One more steep drop in pressure,and Ivan could come pretty close to matching that

Still has quite a ways to go and I don't expect it to happen. At least, not until the eye becomes completely circular and devoid of major cloudiness..

Chilly_Water · #4778 Postby **Chilly_Water** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:52 pm

The brunt isn't supposed to hit until around 8 tomorrow morning and they already have trees down and power outages. This might be horrible.

Sean in New Orleans · #4779 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:52 pm

Foladar wrote:It's just a wobble.

I seriously doubt it---you won't see me start a thread like this unless I see, at least, 3 frames of consistent motion--I know better than that!! 8-)

Persepone · #4780 Postby **Persepone** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:53 pm

I don't have a "listen live" button--what am I doing wrong? What are you using to listen? Winamp? Realplayer?

Ivan Advisories

New GFS way further East

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