Bonnie Advisories

[HurricaneLover]

Will have a better picture of the location of the center and its strenght tomorrow with the RECONNAISSANCE PLANE going in.

[Valkhorn]

Rainstorm likes to subtly entice others into confrontational situations by deliberately disagreeing with them (which would be fine) but provides no facts to back up her thoughts about a situation.

*coughTROLLcough*

I think that's a clear definition of trolling if ever I've heard one

At any rate, I don't think she's an intentional one, but she should realize that's the aura she gives off to some people.

[HURAKAN]

I think tomorrow the RECON plane would find a much stronger system.

[Weatherboy1]

I'd bet dollars to donuts that the NHC isn't exactly certain where the "center" of this depression is either. If you read the 5 p.m., discussion, Avila basically admits as much -- and even questions whether this is a system or not. Plus, the NHC used the code words "poorly defined center" in its public advisory. In the past, when systems have been described that way, it's a signal that a center relocation could be coming down the pike. Not saying they're doing anything wrong -- this is just a developing system that's still too far from any observation posts and/or recon planes to say definitively what ... or where ... it really is!

THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES

[Derek Ortt]

the link has now been corrected

[MGC]

Thats right, in its 5pm discussion on TD#2, the folks at the NHC admit to a degree of uncertainty that there is even a surface circulation ATT. So, don't go shooting off about anyones credibility. Even the pros make mistakes, blow forecasts, ect. At least some of us have the guts to admit our mistakes......MGC

[Hyperstorm]

It is still difficult to ascertain if
the system...an especially fast moving one...has a closed
circulation without data from a reconnaissance plane. Sometimes
fast moving systems have a good satellite presentation but lack
surface circulation as indicated by recon data in the past. This intensity forecast is highly uncertain since none
of the global models develop the depression...and the GFDL which
made it a hurricane in the 06z run now dissipates it in the 12z
run.

Forecaster Avila

This is what I have been saying all along, especially since this morning. I don't think the upgrade to depression status was accurate. The system looked great this morning and is looking good today, but more as a tropical wave than anything else. I don't think this system has any kind of surface center as I have been saying. I have lots of trouble finding one and it looks like the NHC as well. Yes, it could have a mid-level twist, but that's not what we need. The fast forward speed isn't helping either and I'm quite sure the recon tomorrow will have trouble finding a closed circulation. Let's see what happens.

[rainstorm]

Thats right, in its 5pm discussion on TD#2, the folks at the NHC admit to a degree of uncertainty that there is even a surface circulation ATT. So, don't go shooting off about anyones credibility. Even the pros make mistakes, blow forecasts, ect. At least some of us have the guts to admit our mistakes......MGC

thanks mgc, i was wondering if a 30 mph depression moving at 23 mph could have a circ as well. i stand by my statements, and i appreciate the back up from the nhc. whenever they are uncertain where a circ is there may be none, and it is rapidly heading to the zone of death

[Rainband]

It will recurve out into the atlantic after passing PR, thats the lastest!!

[Hyperstorm]

It is still difficult to ascertain if
the system...an especially fast moving one...has a closed
circulation without data from a reconnaissance plane. Sometimes
fast moving systems have a good satellite presentation but lack
surface circulation as indicated by recon data in the past. This intensity forecast is highly uncertain since none
of the global models develop the depression...and the GFDL which
made it a hurricane in the 06z run now dissipates it in the 12z
run.

Forecaster Avila

This is what Derek and I said early this morning. I think the upgrade to depression status was premature. The system looked great yesterday with a closed circulation, nice outflow, but had little convection. This morning it looked good satellite-wise, but more as a tropical wave than anything else. I don't think this system has any kind of surface center as I said earlier. I was very surprised the NHC pulled the trigger to name it. I have lots of trouble finding a LLC and it looks like the NHC as well. Yes, it could have a mid-level twist, but that's not what we need. The fast forward speed isn't helping either and I'm quite sure the recon tomorrow will have trouble finding a closed circulation. Let's see what happens.

[hurricanefreak1988]

"Will T.D. Two dissipate"?! I don't ever want to hear anything that evil again!

[msbee]

Brent
It does NOT need to slow down
it needs to hurry up and pass us in the islands quickly
Please consider us when you say thnigs like that
thanks!

[rainstorm]

"Will T.D. Two dissipate"?! I don't ever want to hear anything that evil again!

[caneman]

Alright already. Getting tired of hearing everyone claim East Caribb is zone of death. I know this is true for June and July. However, I don't know that this is true during the meat of the season. If someone feels it is true for August, please be so kind as to post that information. I'm not afraid to be set straight if need be but also hate to see erronous info get passed about. Thanks

[rainstorm]

the only time the east carib is a little favorable, or less hostile is late in season, after 15 sept

[Derek Ortt]

I think a circ formed around 4 p.m. This afternoon, I was one of those indicating that it was a wave at the hrd briefing (about a 50/50% at the map discussion today). But recently, a center looks to have formed where NHC has it, not farther south

[Matthew5]

I agree derek on that. The system is looking very good.

[donsutherland1]

Rainstorm,

I believe TD #2 will likely develop into a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane) for three reasons:

1) It is tracking through an area of falling wind shear
2) It will not encounter moderate to strong wind shear for at least the next day
3) It is moving across 28°C and warmer waters (SSTAs are near normal to ever slightly above normal).

Whether or not it becomes a hurricane is a whole different matter. However, I do believe odds are high that it will become at least a tropical storm.

[TerryAlly]

Reading the comments of Dr Avila, in discussion #2 it must have been a difficult decision for the hurricane center to upgrade and I can understand now why they were hesitant to upgrade earlier.

I want to see what the measurements are from Saint Lucia and Guadeloupe when the system passes their way.

[Brent]

I think a circ formed around 4 p.m. This afternoon, I was one of those indicating that it was a wave at the hrd briefing (about a 50/50% at the map discussion today). But recently, a center looks to have formed where NHC has it, not farther south

Agreed. This morning I could see a slight spin when I zoomed in and squinted at it, now I don't have to do that so much. I think recon will defintely close off a center tomorrow morning and will likely find Ms. Bonnie.