Ivan Advisories

[dennis1x1]

i think that land had nothing to do with it and that was the latitude the steering currents became weak and stairstepping commenced. just chance. the storm took on a sandwiched appearance at the time of west turn and i think he was feeling the effects of the ridge building from the north

ivan is going through a similar period of west movement now after abruptly changing from a nw track earlier.......and there is no landmass to the north to blame this for.

had he gone strong NW, then W, then strong NW again maybe id think differently

[eye of the storm]

000
URNT12 KNHC 112218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2218Z
B. 18 DEG 07 MIN N
79 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2309 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 318 DEG 135 KT
G. 217 DEG 010 NM
H. 912 MB
I. 12 C/ 3119 M
J. 22 C/ 3108 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C17
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z.

[USAwx1]

Thanks, BTW 18z GFS out to 102 hrs shows an eastern Panhandle solution w/ DUE N movement after making the turn N of the western tip of Cuba.

Landfall around 30N/84W. Still going to be a MEAN severe wx outbreak---initially over The FL peninsula in the favored eastern/NE quadrants as the feeder bands move over the pininsula, then spreading Northward as the 500H low progresses up into GA/SC providing this solution pans out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108s.gif

not to mention a whole lot of rain. AGAIN

[nolecaster]

scary thought

[James]

He (Allen) also dropped to 909mb in the west Gulf of Mexico.

[das8929]

Slowly but surely...

[FLLuckyAgain]

No matter where he hits people are going to die folks..We may be looking at the worst natrual diaster in history here...And that includes Camielle and Andrew...I pray for the humans in this things path. We can go ahead and just say 2004 is the worst Landfalling season ever for the US..

[chakalakasp]

Good lord. I hope they're hunkering the heck down in the Caymans. I can't imagine what it must be like to have a 912mb hurricane less than half a day away from your island residence.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well saying Cuba is in the clear is pretty bold, something like that shouldn't be put into the board until confirmed even if it happens to be a opinion, thats insanity.

Confirmed? This isn't a news board..it's a weather forum. Nothing is "confirmed" with weather until it's history. I stand by my amateur prediction...Nothing any person says with weather is ever set in stone or "confirmed."

[dennis1x1]

ridiculous.

[Fodie77]

Talk about a needless first post.

[JTD]

Fox News said that they would start coverage on Sunday.

What kind of coverage, petunia...24/7?

[feederband]

It's like it's doing a countdown.

[corpusbreeze]

forgot to mention I DONT THINK ivan will make it was far west as 88W somewhere between 83W and 86W looks most probable right now

Just what the models say. Also Gilbert plowed right through Jamaica in 88. Also Ivan is still moving west.

[dennis1x1]

luckily with every hour of west (now a little south of west), a direct hit is looking unlikely.

a luckily is a very strong word here because a direct hit on grand cayman at this strength would be mind blowing.

[Guest]

did not Joe B say the other day SE Fl?

[Agua]

Dear lord when is this damned thing going to turn north?! Hell, ram into the Yuc, whatever, just miss us.

[frankthetank]

Heres the one from today...shes looking at you!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.500m.jpg

big one
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.250m.jpg

[canegrl04]

This has all the look and feel of aonce in a 35 year hurricane

If Ivan slips thru the YC,God help us

[MBryant]

One of these days we're going to see coverage that puts the reporters under 6' of dirt.