Ivan Advisories

das8929 · #4961 Postby **das8929** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:16 pm

Lol. The turn should be starting soon.

#4962 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:16 pm

The big swells would be offshore, but Tampa Bay could see 10 ft. swells depending on Ivans movement of course.

hurricanedude · #4963 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:17 pm

I know what models are used for...Im just saying if they were VERY RELIABLE why would one moment it be in Miami...and the next run in Mobile...get my point?

#4964 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:18 pm

Yep, I definitely get it. Some models suck.

hurricanedude · #4965 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:18 pm

we are clueless beyond 2 days anyway.....look at yesterdays models and todays...only one day and 400 mile error

MiaMom · #4966 Postby **MiaMom** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:18 pm

What about Clearwater Beach?

Raebie · #4967 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:19 pm

Yay! New DJ, better music!!

#4968 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:19 pm

I give up.

hurricanefloyd5 · #4969 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:20 pm

looks tobe a stall about to happen then a turn to the north maybe????????????????

hurricanedude · #4970 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:20 pm

lol..i think you agree with me...just not going to admit it..

rsm · #4971 Postby **rsm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:20 pm

It would be like that movie "The Day After".

#4972 Postby **USAwx1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:21 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Someon posted how similar Camille and Ivans tracks are. Ivan at 20N,82W Camille was at 19.4N,82W

Well it is similar, and so is the synoptic Set-up TO A POINT.

On AUG 16, 1969, the western edge of the Sub-tropical Atlantic ridge extended westward to about 85W w/ a pronounced weakness over the lower MS valley. Drastically different from that of Gilbert, and resulted in the turn NW w/ Camille.

here is the h500 analysis for 00z AUG 16 1969

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/040911231331.gif

and 0z AUG 19

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/040911231828.gif

and Camille's track which followed the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

I do acknowledge the fact that the synoptic set-up is similar, but I don’t think the Atlantic half of the sub-tropical ridge will get that far west.

BTW, thanks Don.

#4973 Postby **abajan** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:21 pm

It's really moving slowly now. At one point, Ivan was moving at 24 mph.

mobilebay · #4974 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:22 pm

hurricanedude wrote:we are clueless beyond 2 days anyway.....look at yesterdays models and todays...only one day and 400 mile error

They could not call it twelve hours before Jamaica. So I admit I really don't know at this point.

lahurricanewatcher · #4975 Postby **lahurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:22 pm

Another one bites the dust???? :lol:

Ok, now Madonna's Holiday. :lol:

hurricanedude · #4976 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:23 pm

mobilebay!!!!..you got it.......when there is a weakness the thing can do about anything!!!!

Raebie · #4977 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:23 pm

So maybe this would be a good time for me to start forecasting?

;-)

Raebie · #4978 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:24 pm

Hey, at least I recognize the songs!

frankthetank · #4979 Postby **frankthetank** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:25 pm

you can also try this one....

http://www.weatherincayman.com/

LSUChamps0002 · #4980 Postby **LSUChamps0002** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:25 pm

My official forecast track:

This time tomorrow, Ivan will not be where it is right now.

i give myself at l east a 10% chance of being accurate.

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