Ivan Advisories

[hurricanedude]

your guess is as good as the next persons at this point

[mobilebay]

Someon posted how similar Camille and Ivans tracks are. Ivan at 20N,82W Camille was at 19.4N,82W

Well it is similar, and so is the synoptic Set-up TO A POINT.

On AUG 16, 1969, the western edge of the Sub-tropical Atlantic ridge extended westward to about 85W w/ a pronounced weakness over the lower MS valley. Drastically different from that of Gilbert, and resulted in the turn NW w/ Camille.

here is the h500 analysis for 00z AUG 16 1969

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/040911231331.gif
So you think Mobile has nothing to worry about?

and 0z AUG 19

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/040911231828.gif

and Camille's track which followed the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

I do acknowledge the fact that the synoptic set-up is similar, but I don’t think the Atlantic half of the sub-tropical ridge will get that far west.

BTW, thanks Don.

[lahurricanewatcher]

Incidentally, the dj said that they would broadcast as long as humanly possible.

[Jetman]

Latest satellite images look absolutely asthetic:

- symmetric eye and eyewall
- eye very distinct, clear
- impressive outflow

We may see a minimum pressure in the 900-910 mb area. So, "Ivan" is approaching the Golden League of hurricanes: Mitch, Gilbert, Camille etc.

Jetman

[huricanwatcher]

billy jean???????? omg.......

[calidoug]

It's not so much an issue of "solving" the right equation, as it is a problem of the non-linearity of the equations (hence great sensitivity to initial conditions) and the sparse and approximate nature of the data reflecting initial conditions.

One simply doesn't know the temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, etc., on a fine enough grid at all levels of the atmosphere, with enough accuracy.

[Stormcenter]

Someon posted how similar Camille and Ivans tracks are. Ivan at 20N,82W Camille was at 19.4N,82W

Well it is similar, and so is the synoptic Set-up TO A POINT.

On AUG 16, 1969, the western edge of the Sub-tropical Atlantic ridge extended westward to about 85W w/ a pronounced weakness over the lower MS valley. Drastically different from that of Gilbert, and resulted in the turn NW w/ Camille.

here is the h500 analysis for 00z AUG 16 1969

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/040911231331.gif


and 0z AUG 19

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/040911231828.gif

and Camille's track which followed the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

I do acknowledge the fact that the synoptic set-up is similar, but I don’t think the Atlantic half of the sub-tropical ridge will get that far west.

BTW, thanks Don.

Nice discussion and analysis but unfortunately Ivan is still moving wnw to w. If he doesn't start turning soon your track will not pan out.

[PurdueWx80]

I guess it depends on what we all mean by "they" as in the models. Our groupings are probably different. The GFS has just plain sucked on Ivan so far. There were/are models that had Ivan going on a west heading to the south of Jamaica...but not all of them did. Those that were south of Jamaica don't suck as much.

LSU, I dunno, apparently Ivan has stalled...maybe it'll do this all night long! Guess that's where the 10% accuracy comes from.

[hurricanedude]

well said!!!!

[Raebie]

I think that's totally appropriate, with the 40 days and 40 nights reference and all...

[das8929]

Yep looks perfect. Watch out Caymans!

[Guest]

9 mph forward speed is not slow and is not crawling, it is typical of a well organized system, Frederic came ashore on AL/MS line at 9mph.

[huricanwatcher]

lol

[mobilebay]

Near 30N and 86.6 W. Although the GFS switched a little right at 18Z, the GFDL wen't a hair left. Someone smarter please explain because I thought these two models where biased?

[USAwx1]

So you think Mobile has nothing to worry about?

re-read my first post and you will see where (for right now) I think landfall may take place.

[canegrl04]

He'll probably reach that pressure range in the next hour or two.

[gkrangers]

you can also try this one....

http://www.weatherincayman.com/

" The anemometer is located about 40 feet above the ground on one leg of a ham radio tower."

Not too sure how long that'll last.

[huricanwatcher]

I think ya'll staring at this thing too long !!! (heck it looked like a fish to me earlier and I dont mean a fish storm... looked like a haddock) LOL

[Possum Trot]

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/dia.asp

Select "Radares"
Then Select "Cienfuegos"

Also check out the sat sequences.

Someone posted this link last night. I forget who.

[Stormcenter]

Ivan still moving or wobbling along wnw. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html