Ivan Advisories

[Stratosphere747]

Good stuff USAwx1....What would have to happen to take a track *from where you have it going now* to either the east or west by a major amount??

[mobilebay]

Also at the beggining of the run it showed almost indenticaly the slow motion observed now. almost in the exact postion at this time.

[floodprone]

They really don't seem real concerned...

This is one of the strangest stations I've ever heard...

[Raebie]

How can that be the eyewall?? Isn't it still too far out? And those bands should be way more intense.

[MGC]

Ivan keeps wobbling along a WNW track which currently appears to pass just south of Grand Cayman. This will keep Grand Cayman in the right front quad so they will be experiencing a long night. Right now I'm giving Ivan a 50-50 chance of shooting the gap and passing through the Yucatan Channel. If Ivan does indeed pass through the Yucatan Channel than the threat of a central GOM landfall increases considerably. GOM or bust......MGC

[Raebie]

They are. Totally. Just trying to lighten the musical mood. What else can they do?

[gkrangers]

They really don't seem real concerned...

It doesn't surprise me.

What can they do?

They are trapped on an island in the direct path (yes, I have seen the wobbles) of one of the strongest hurricanes in recorded history.

[huricanwatcher]

Celebrate?........ oh come on

[USAwx1]

Good stuff USAwx1....What would have to happen to take a track *from where you have it going now* to either the east or west by a major amount??

change in the orientation of the ridge

[tropicstorm]

This pronounced westward jogging / movement was not really anticipated in the earlier models, I suppose. Is the primary reason for the more westerly component based on a weaker trough (not digging far enough southeast) & a stronger Atlantic ridge that just keeps building without the weakening that was expected? What about this cyclonic loop & possible stalling of Ivan? Does anyone here see even a remote possibility that there could still be changing conditions with Ivan that could produce a Charley-like track into the western Florida peninsula after it crosses Cuba?

[Brent]

I noticed that.

I don't like it. We don't even need any rain much less a huge wind storm. The farther west it goes in the Gulf the stronger it will be. I'm starting to think Cat 4 at landfall in the Florida Panhandle is likely.

[Raebie]

Ok, now they're playing "Freak Out". Feel better?

[Tri-State_1925]

It was I who posted it...I'm checking it out right now for myself. I really like one of their satellite loops.

[Zadok]

Does anyone here see even a remote possibility that there could still be changing conditions with Ivan that could produce a Charley-like track into the western Florida peninsula after it crosses Cuba?

I think we have had enough punishment.

[MGC]

Looks to be in the correct position where one would expect Ivan's eye to be located. Tomorrow should yield much better radar loop of Ivan..MGC

[chakalakasp]

Emailed the DJ... just got this reply back:

thanks man we definately need your prayers...it means so mucjh to us
that you are listening and praying for us...thank you

You can email the DJ at: studio@vibefm.ky

[huricanwatcher]

SUPER FREAK!!!!!!! that works.

[Raebie]

And now "Super Freak". I sense a theme here...

[Brent]

Great discussion USAWX.

Just hoping Ivan passes east of here(close to 85 W/33 N)

[Guest]

GOM OR BUST!.....GOM OR BUST....GOM OR BUST! Has a cool beat, but a bad ending. Definitely thru the channel.