Ivan Advisories

[LSUChamps0002]

902.5

[chakalakasp]

It looks bad, but who knows -- we thought Jamaica would be clocked, too. Right now it looks like it might soon be about as terrible as it could be. Wind gusts right now are at around 200mph near the eye, which may pass over Grand Cayman sometime tomorrow morning.

Right now, the death toll stands at 4 in Jamaica (house collapse, father and 3 children), there is widespred looting in downtown Kingston, and apparently the police are opening fire on looters. Communications on the island is sporadic and many lines are down. And Jamaica took a glancing blow.

Tropical storm force winds will be entering the area of Cayman rather soon.

[dhweather]

901

[Anonymous]

das...get some sleep, please. You may be loosing your vision.

[Anonymous]

Models look to be trending east....Turning northeast around 24N Turn the GFDL or UKMET from their current forecast positions at 24N and paralell them to the new Bamd, looks a lot further east... Also, the UKMET turns the storm NNE at 24 N only to zig-zag the rest of the run--not likely and once the NNE turn begins-if its at 24N, look out Peninsula

[canegrl04]

I'm almost expecting to wake up tomorrow morning to find out Ivan is a 180mph hurricane.


Thanks for the tip about knot to mph convergence

[Aquawind]

Thanks USA ...Good Stuff...

[Matthew5]

150 knot flight level winds in the southeastern quad??? Thats 173 mph flight level. Which go down to surface around 160 mph? In this thing is still bombing. I expect at least 175 mph surface winds at the 11pm Advisory. Why because the northeastern Quad is much stronger!

[Stormsfury]

Heres the link

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2004091112-thirteen13e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That's for 13E (Javier) ...

Here's 18z GFDL for Ivan, and notice the difference of how both Ivan and Javier are handed between the two links ...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation

SF

[tronbunny]

If anyone cares to see the numbers, I've posted snips of Vortex messages from this afternoon and evening.
in the sticky "Post Ivan Summaries Here"
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43938

[N2FSU]

Shifts west even more...landfall around Pensacola to Destin/Ft. Walton
Haven't seen the 00Z

[Ixolib]

Heres the link

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2004091112-thirteen13e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Gotta say - this model is REALLY hitting my heart. I'm making reservations now for somewhere at least 4 hours NW of here. Many of the hotels we're checking are already full for the 14th - 16th!!!

[canegrl04]

Camille is the grand dame to measure Ivan by,now. She had sustained winds of 190mph.I think its conceivable Ivan can match her

[chris_fit]

Is it down for anyone else? im gettin an operator tone.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I'm almost expecting to wake up tomorrow morning to find out Ivan is a 180mph hurricane.


Thanks for the tip about knot to mph convergence

Here's one:

http://www.disastercenter.com/convert.htm

[anjou]

Aw, heck. This is a Cat 5. Raging drunk is the ONLY way to get through this with your sanity. Raging drunk and in a bank vault.

Rum, gold... aaaarrrrrr aaaaaaaaaarrrr

[Houstonia]

THIS is Cayman Islands radio?!? THIS ... This.. STUFF?!?

bleagh.

[anjou]

More seriously, as of now - 9:15pm -ish Eastern time... where are they in terms of wind strength and the hurricane's approach right now? (Time to do anything except sit tight?)

[bree4bryce]

I got an operator tone too but all I had to do was retry (refresh) and it came right back.

[chakalakasp]

FYI: Yesterday's Jamaica station is providing excellent coverage of what's going on in the Caymans. They're taking lots of phone calls from people in the Caymans making reports.

http://war.str3am.com:7550/listen.pls