Ivan Advisories

[JoanFlorida]

For Grand Cayman radio

http://www.vibefm.ky/

go to this site, click upper right for live streaming....

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

graphics now available

[dennis1x1]

ships model really cuts him down in the gulf...latest shear forecasts are even higher than yesterdays..

definitely hope for the us landfall area...

[huricanwatcher]

just ignore the music they play UGH...

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm with the model.....Mobile to Destin, IMO.

[BigO]

Crap.

[BigO]

The implications for New Orleans. Not the forecast!

[Ratchet]

Howdy folks,
I`ve made it back into here, but the radio webcast seems a bit on the flaky side at best. Does anyone have any news as of yet? All I heard when I did get into the webcast was music.

[wxman57]

The HRD updated their analysis links of Ivan's wind field. The 1930Z Sept. 11 links work now:

8 deg:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l08deg.png

4 deg:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png

2 deg:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l02deg.png

Note that the 100+ mph winds now extend all the way around the eye, and out to 40 miles north of the center. That's MUCH larger than the other day when they were only out to about 12 miles north of the center and only on the north side.

[das8929]

Yucatan is NOT getting hit, but it may get hurricane gusts depending how close the center passes through the strait.

[JoanFlorida]

don't bother...I just got knocked off the station...can't get back on...network overcrowded! Sheesh...and I thought sharing was a good thing?!

[anjou]

A caution though... if you start to have difficulty connecting to the streams - may be most considerate to stop listening... the folks on the Caymans are probably trying to connect too (if they still have power) - and probably don't have high speed connections... thus... someone in the U.S. listening out of curiosity might unwittingly be bumping off the stream some poor soul huddled under a mattress in the bathtub on Grand Cayman.

So - if the streams get hard to connect to... it would be considerate to just not listen. (Much as I'd love to be listening...)

[Hurricanehink]

I say 902.

[JoanFlorida]

never tho't of local listeners reverting to streaming...won't they be tuned into their battery-powered radios? Especially under the mattress and all? I could be wrong...sorry.

[tronbunny]

I am a bit concerned about the latest tropical discussion.

AXNT20 KNHC 112359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT 11 SEP 2004

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N93W CONTINUING S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH IS A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND WETTER CONDITIONS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
MID/UPPER HIGH IS NW OF IVAN NEAR 24N85W... A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS INCREASING DUE TO IVAN MOVING A BIT CLOSER. ALL EYES ARE TO THE SE
IVAN... FORECAST TO MOVE INTO GULF WATERS MON.

The Easterly sea breezes are being influenced by Ivan? WoW!
What will that trough, now standing between the Panhandle and 25N93W do as it moves westerly. Will it move NW, change axis or just guide Ivan like a gate into the NE (kind of like a pinball flipper).
And what about that stronger mid/upper high at 24N85W?
That has got to be a major player, it's just standing there above the strait!
What does it all mean?

[anjou]

Something I mentioned on another thread too - the number of streams is limited... so IF they still have any electricity in the Caymans, IF someone is listening online there... our eagerness to hear what's going on may actually prevent them from hearing what they need to.

I'd suggest to be prudent about it - disconnect once in awhile, and if you aren't able to get back on right away, give it up. Probably (I think) folks on slower connections (say maybe on an ISLAND getting hit by a CAT 5) are less able to compete for live stream logins than folks with broadband.

Let the people in the tub with the mattresses over their head have their streaming online radio back.

That said, hopefully most people there are listening over am/fm/whatever instead.

[Raebie]

I'm listening with no problems. Not much news, just lots of funko music and thanks for all of the emails. Sounds like there's some flooding on the east side of the island with sporatic power outages. They're hunkering down.

This site, however, is a different story...

[BensonTCwatcher]

USA,

Well,

First a question. Is it correct that the primary steering currents for TC are on are at the 500-700 mb levels more or less? I have just been watching the wind analyses and vorticity and watching where the "channel" forms that's all.

For at least 12-18 hrs the weakness in front of the ridge in the midwest that was left over from Frances departure has been where Ivan has "wanted" to go. The ridge NE of bermuda had an elongation to the SW that was jogging Ivan westward. This seems to have flattened out and now the features you described above have taken over. The ridge that extends eastward from TX is the main factor I see steering the storm over the next 24-36 hours since the good 'ol bermuda high seems to have flatten out and shifted a little ENE.

All in all the big player is once again how much the trough digs in behind the sub-tropical and when. I think it will a little more than the models show now in 36 hours and put Ivan into and across the neck of the FL peninsula.

Since I am a newbie, I could be all wrong and my good friends in Niceville will need a LOT of help.

[alicia-w]

Does it have any indication of strength at landfall?

[alicia-w]

vbhoutex needs to get his mother out of Destin!

actually i think she lives near me in Niceville or Valparaiso.