Ivan Advisories

anjou · #5161 Postby **anjou** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:06 pm

Well, lemme know if you hear them talk about water purification. :roll:

In a what-can-I-do moment, I e-mailed the station a how-to-make-sure-water's-OK-in-an-emergency FAQ

Of course, it's the Caymans. They've probably got stockpiles of every exotic fizzy water you can imagine. :roll:

Raebie · #5162 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:06 pm

Jus announced most shelters closed (full). Sound like they just now lost their signal.

adelphi_sky · #5163 Postby **adelphi_sky** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:10 pm

You heard it hear first 895

#5164 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:10 pm

I am a bit concerned about the latest tropical discussion.

AXNT20 KNHC 112359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT 11 SEP 2004

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...

DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N93W CONTINUING S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH IS A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND WETTER CONDITIONS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIGRATING WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
MID/UPPER HIGH IS NW OF IVAN NEAR 24N85W... A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS INCREASING DUE TO IVAN MOVING A BIT CLOSER. ALL EYES ARE TO THE SE
IVAN... FORECAST TO MOVE INTO GULF WATERS MON.

The Easterly sea breezes are being influenced by Ivan? WoW!
What will that trough, now standing between the Panhandle and 25N93W do as it moves westerly. Will it move NW, change axis or just guide Ivan like a gate into the NE (kind of like a pinball flipper).
And what about that stronger mid/upper high at 24N85W?
That has got to be a major player, it's just standing there above the strait!
What does it all mean?
:?:

rsm · #5165 Postby **rsm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:11 pm

Will the NHC move it's track westward in deference to the FSU SE, or will it stay the same?

dennis1x1 · #5166 Postby **dennis1x1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:25 pm

still moving due west....as this continues grand cayman looks better...would need a 310 degree abrupt turn for a direct hit of the northeastern eyewall now......definitely could happen..but not as likely as 5 hours ago.

chakalakasp · #5167 Postby **chakalakasp** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:26 pm

It's dead, Jim! :beam:

gkrangers · #5168 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:27 pm

METAR MWCR 120100Z 06030G44KT 1000 +SHRA OVC014 29/25 Q1003 NOSIG

#5169 Postby **stormcloud** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:27 pm

When does Ivan become too big to be guided northward by weak steering currents?

dwinpcola · #5170 Postby **dwinpcola** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:28 pm

question , for us here in the western panhandle ? With Ivan for now heading in this general area , what is the idea on the power of teh winds and movement speed.? I have seen winds of 120-125mph. I just wonder if he will be slow moving by then or moving faster than he is now. Ideas

dw

Windfall · #5171 Postby **Windfall** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:30 pm

New tropical development following ivan? http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atldef ... large.html

Derek Ortt · #5172 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:30 pm

this may be closer to 150 or 155KT at the present time

This is something for the central Gulf coast to monitor over the next few days, in the event that the trends continue to shift to the west

whc · #5173 Postby **whc** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:31 pm

Has anyone checked out these radio station for the Cayman Islands?

http://www.tvradioworld.com/region1/cym ... ternet.asp

Website · #5174 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:34 pm

Public Advisory http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT34.KNHC

Discussion http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT44.KNHC

Landfall near Panama City Wednesday Afternoon

tw861 · #5175 Postby **tw861** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:34 pm

das8929 wrote:Yucatan is NOT getting hit, but it may get hurricane gusts depending how close the center passes through the strait.

Hmm... Thats good to know, where is it going, south Florida ?

chakalakasp · #5176 Postby **chakalakasp** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:34 pm

whc wrote:Has anyone checked out these radio station for the Cayman Islands?

http://www.tvradioworld.com/region1/cym ... ternet.asp

None of them stream.

Derek Ortt · #5177 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:35 pm

the eye wall extends north of the storm. 310 is needed for the eye but only 290 would bring the eye wall across

boca · #5178 Postby **boca** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:35 pm

What are the implications if Ivan were to stall. What kind of weather conditions should SE FL expect.

calidoug · #5179 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:35 pm

It hasn't been moving due W for the past 6 hours...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

WNW. About 285, from 2015Z through 0215Z.

The GOM loop makes the N component even more clear:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

bwstg · #5180 Postby **bwstg** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:36 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

Ivan Advisories

Ivan's wake?

11pm Ivan-165 mph winds, 910 mb pressure

What if Ivan stalls

11pm advisory

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