Ivan Advisories

[dennis1x1]

would probably depend on where this stall was to take place?

[dennis1x1]

id say 300....depends on your definition of "eyewall"...i only give the actual eyewall 5 miles max (from the edge of the eye...not center).....the true devastating 155mph winds. its not as big as some here tend to think (doesnt encompass all the cdo in that quadrant)

[AL Chili Pepper]

Should be moving faster once he rounds the ridge. Everything I've seen calls for a strong storm, but not the cat 5 that he is now. Regardless, if he's heading this way on Monday, I'm preparing for a cat 5.

[Opal storm]

Yucatan is NOT getting hit, but it may get hurricane gusts depending how close the center passes through the strait.

Hmm... Thats good to know, where is it going, south Florida ?

Yucatan...maybe,south Florida,no.It's going straight towards the panhandle/Gulf coast.Some impacts might be felt along the west coast of Florida though.

[huricanwatcher]

think storm has got them... all are down

[N2FSU]

It shows intensity at 96 hrs around 115 mph (Cat3)

[yoda]

Yeah... and read this part in the discussion:

The hurricane has deepened a little more this evening and the last
central pressure observation...by dropsonde from the hurricane
hunters...was 910 mb. Ivan ranks sixth for lowest Atlantic Basin
central pressure behind Camille in 1969 and Mitch in 1998 at 905 mb
each...Allen in 1980 at 899 mb...the 1935 Labor Day hurricane at
892 mb...and Gilbert in 1988 at 888 mb. Both the atmospheric and
oceanic environment are expected to remain favorable for the next
day or so...and Ivan could strengthen even more. That is VERY SCARY....

[boca]

Should watches go up along the East coast of Yucatan like Cycloneye stated on an earlier post.

[dennis1x1]

when it gets to 905 we will let you report it yoda

[Sean in New Orleans]

Today Ivan didn't moved NW 310 degrees but instead it moved between 285-290 more west than north and if this motion continues my opinion is that the Yucatan Penninsula may have to have at least a hurricane watch.

I agree....this system will affect the Yucatan based on its' consistent motion for today. I believe it will miss Cuba entirely....

[lilbump3000]

Ok here are 3 possible things i think ivan can do.

Before i start i like to note that the models fail to see a high pressure in the gulf of mexico just ahead of ivan which you can see the clockwise rotation out ahead of ivan in the gulf on water vapor loop.

Also to note that the low thats swinging through the central u.s., personally i think thats to weak to even pick up a powerful system like ivan, and i think thats what the models are still thinking that the low will pick up ivan.

Ok here are the 3 possible things i think ivan can do

1. The high just head of ivan could weaken quickly thus turning ivan towards the western tip of cuba making landfall along the western tip of cuba and then continue into the gulf making landfall somwere along the western part of the flordia panhandle. Alabama coast could be in a great risk as well.

2. The high takes a while to weaken thus continueing ivan on a more west to westnorthwest track close to the yucatan but coming through the yucatan channel and then possible into the central gulf making more of a LA/MS/AL landfall more likely.

3. This will be a good for the U.S. but not good for mexico and the yucatan. The high never weakens out ahead of ivan and continues to move to the west taking ivan along with it into the yucatan and then into the southern gulf and then into mexico.

[logybogy]

You have it at 130kt in 72 hours. The NHC has it at 115kt.

You don't expect the shear to develop like the NHC says?

[canegrl04]

JUST WHOA

[yoda]

when it gets to 905 we will let you report it yoda

Oh why thank you very much!!!

[TyphoonTim]

Why start another thread??

[Stormcenter]

It sounds to me like the NHC is downplaying the leftward trend of the models for the moment. I think if it wasn't for the past landfalls on Florida they would have shifted the projected track even further west. I think they DON'T want to give Florida residents a false sense of security this far out. I totaly agree with that thinking if that's the case.
We ALL know with hurricanes that just because they say it's suppose to go there doesn't mean it will. Everyone along the NE GOM S.Fl, & C.GOM NEED to beware of Ivan.

See quote below from 11pm EDT discussion to see what I mean.

The current NHC track forecast has been
adjusted very slightly to the left of the previous one...but it is
on the eastern side of the latest model guidance suite.

[Galvestongirl]

you kidden me..its gonna hit eh coast of texas...near brownsville...lol

[Sean in New Orleans]

when it gets to 905 we will let you report it yoda

Hahahaha!! I was here last night!!!

[gpickett00]

It's going straight towards the panhandle/Gulf coast

I do not think it is going to hit the yucatan, but it is not at the time going straight towards the panhandle. right now it is going straight toward the yucatan. only models are going straight at the panhandle.

[dennis1x1]

well the model consensus is still in florida...just further over in the panhandle....so i dont thing the florida conspiracy angle is valid.

when they say they are on the right edge of the consensus...they are only talking about 30-40 miles it appears.