Ivan Advisories

chris_fit · #5261 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:25 pm

Yes..

see:
http://www.aboutmylife.net/users/chris_fit

#5262 Postby **sgastorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:25 pm

FFC is the identifier for theAtlanta, GA forecast office. CWA=County Warning Area. The forecaster is saying rough weather will be moving into their area of responsibility on Wed.

Guest · #5263 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:28 pm

no split, use this link for better imagery.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

CFL · #5264 Postby **CFL** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:28 pm

I'm in the western Florida panhandle. Yuck! Yuck! Yuck! I really hope Ivan runs into some terrible shearing conditions in the Gulf and just goes away.

#5265 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:30 pm

Alrgight, now I know I need sleep.
I'm actually getting paranoid about what I see on the satellite images.
I do not like the look of that ULL to Florida's East.

I know, I'm just weary.

southerngale · #5266 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:31 pm

Thanks for posting Sean...very informative discussion.

Tri-State_1925 · #5267 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:32 pm

I also notice the jog...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

The Cayman Islands are NOT out of the woods...

Raebie · #5268 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:33 pm

Crap. (That's the best image I've seen all day.)

Burn1 · #5269 Postby **Burn1** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:34 pm

If you look at recent floater it looks like cane just wobbled straight up the 80 line. I am sure this is temporary

Website · #5270 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:35 pm

The reason it's scary is Atlanta is WAY inland.

Doesn't happen often. Last big wind event was Opal in 1995.

As long as the track stays east of me... I should be OK, but anymore westward shift would have it over me. It's only 30 miles off right now. I just don't want any outages. Rain is fine(even though we don't need it).

Possum Trot · #5271 Postby **Possum Trot** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:38 pm

per recent report on Power 106

#5272 Postby **NateFLA** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:38 pm

I see that temporary wobble more north in the frame too.

Odds are that it is nothing more than an anomaly and will continue on the NHC track, but there is a slight chance it is the early indications of a more NW motion now.

It's way too early to know, and the SATs will be in blackout in a few hours

Travelgirl · #5273 Postby **Travelgirl** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:39 pm

Thanks Sean, I also saw John Gumm on the 10:00 news. He gave a very good analysis of possible forcast for Ivan. I also watched NBC news, the met only said the storm was going to Florida and our weather will be a little breezy. He didn't suggest that we monitor the storm. Mr. Gumm suggested we continue to monitor the hurricane's progress. It's amazing the difference in mets.

Sean in New Orleans · #5274 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:39 pm

I believe the storm is too far South to respond to any of this at this time...Florida Peninsula, thank God, can pretty much rest easy with this hurricane. You all have gotten shot twice, I don't see a three strikes and your out this time---the peninsula came dangerously close, though, to having it's economy collapse, IMO. Someone's watching out for you guys...

montrealboy · #5275 Postby **montrealboy** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:39 pm

#5276 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:39 pm

NateFLA wrote:I see that temporary wobble more north in the frame too.

Odds are that it is nothing more than an anomaly and will continue on the NHC track, but there is a slight chance it is the early indications of a more NW motion now.

It's way too early to know, and the SATs will be in blackout in a few hours

waking up in the morning will be interesting!

#5277 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:42 pm

The only "split" in the ridge is to the NE of the storm. It has already missed this weakness. The ridge remains strong just to the NW of Ivan, which is why he has been moving so slowly. This (clockwise rotation) is evident in both the 00z upper air data, and any satellite loop. As the ridge breaks down, Ivan should begin moving a little more quickly to the WNW and NW. I still think he will just clip the western tip of Cuba, w/ very little land interaction.

gkrangers · #5278 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:44 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Someone's watching out for you guys...

They just go thit with 2 very strong hurricanes...somebody has it IN for them.

calidoug · #5279 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:45 pm

Motion from 2115Z through 0315Z appears to be about 300.

Bad news for Grand Cayman.

Eye appears to be contracting in the last couple frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also might be entraining a little bit of drier air from the NW... convection not as intense on that side....

#5280 Postby **NateFLA** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 10:45 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I believe the storm is too far South to respond to any of this at this time...Florida Peninsula, thank God, can pretty much rest easy with this hurricane. You all have gotten shot twice, I don't see a three strikes and your out this time---the peninsula came dangerously close, though, to having it's economy collapse, IMO. Someone's watching out for you guys...

I regretfully am going to point out that although the season is just going to start to decline, it is by no means over, and the FL pen is in big trouble if another major hurricane comes around here.

Lets hope they all go :uarrow:

before they get to the caribbean next time!

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