Ivan Advisories

[LaBreeze]

No nervous breakdown here (and I'm in Louisiana). Been through quite a few in my many years, if by some odd chance that it heads this way, we will weather it and move right along.

[~SirCane]

This week is going to be very interesting. I won't sleep much!

[NateFLA]

Then why not join the so called "west" bandwagon and not continue to sound like you want it to come to Florida if you really don't want there?

All of the predicting/wishing/whatever you call it in the world is NOT going to change the track of the storm.

I think the people, like myself, that defend the position that the peninsula is by no means out of the woods is because we are being realistic and realizing that it is simply less likely that the peninsula will be the target for the eye, not unlikely. That said, its far off, and none of us know where it is going to go exactly.

Not necessarily directed at any specific person:
I wish people around here wouldn't be so edgey. Yes, we are all stressed, especially those of us who are living with this constant danger, day after day, week after week this season... but we need to remember, we are ALL humans and all deserve respect. So long as someone presents their idea / thought in a clear concise manner with supporting evidence, they should be fully respected. That doesn't mean you have to agree with them, it means you have to respect them.

[Stormcenter]

The last satellite loop before the eclipse blackout shows a west wobble.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[tronbunny]

Blech!
I could just jump outta my skin when we get into arguments about paper and pens over the computer screen!
Numbers, give me numbers.
I want to read the hard data from he vortex messages or eve..we could only hope...the actual position data transmitted from the satellite itself.
I DO NT trust my eyes to make that kind of call on my 15in computer monitor!

:-P

[dennis1x1]

i saw a nw bobble....from 3:32 to 3:45

bobbles, jogs, turns...whatever..the bottom line is that during the last 2 hours ivan made significant northern progress of probably 20-30 miles....bad bad bad news for grand cayman.

[stormwatcher]

I agree with you NateFLA.

[Stormcenter]

Then why not join the so called "west" bandwagon and not continue to sound like you want it to come to Florida if you really don't want there?

All of the predicting/wishing/whatever you call it in the world is NOT going to change the track of the storm.

I think the people, like myself, that defend the position that the peninsula is by no means out of the woods is because we are being realistic and realizing that it is simply less likely that the peninsula will be the target for the eye, not unlikely. That said, its far off, and none of us know where it is going to go exactly.

Not necessarily directed at any specific person:
I wish people around here wouldn't be so edgey. Yes, we are all stressed, especially those of us who are living with this constant danger, day after day, week after week this season... but we need to remember, we are ALL humans and all deserve respect. So long as someone presents their idea / thought in a clear concise manner with supporting evidence, they should be fully respected. That doesn't mean you have to agree with them, it means you have to respect them.

I agree .

[miamijaaz]

Motion from 2115Z through 0315Z appears to be about 300.

Bad news for Grand Cayman.

Eye appears to be contracting in the last couple frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also might be entraining a little bit of drier air from the NW... convection not as intense on that side....

They call it a wobble which is what it's been doing all day.
Though it really does need to start turning NW now otherwise some of you guys in Florida are going to have a nervous breakdown.

Don't start with that. All we've heard all day from everyone east of Florida is west, west, west!!!! It seems the folks from LA, Miss, AL and TX are the ones who will suffer from a nervous break down. We here in FL have had our share of storms, so if it keeps going west, we are OK with that.

Then why not join the so called "west" bandwagon and not continue to sound like you want it to come to Florida if you really don't want there?

Stormcenter, not everyone who lives in Florida and thinks that it might affect the peninsula is a wishcaster. Some of us are looking at this objectively, you know. (By the way, I don't have the foggiest idea where its going).

[calidoug]

NateFLA, well said.

In addition, if someone wants to refute, say, my claim of a 300 heading over the past 12 frames, they are more than welcome to cite claimed coordinates for 2145Z and 0345Z, measured my blowing up those frames in "Paint" or "Photoshop", or something, and actually performing the calculation, like I did, and saying, "No, look, I get 295 using the following coordinates." Then we can compare coordinates and see who is in error.

But just saying, "No it isn't! You're blind!" doesn't add much.

[NateFLA]

I agree .

Thank you!

[NorthGaWeather]

im going to bed but you need a eye check if you think it is moving 305 goodnight.

I said the samething last night.

[LaBreeze]

Well put NateFLA.

[calidoug]

tronbunny, it is quite easy to work with the frame images and use on screen measuring tools, if you have basic software skills.

But I agree that citing coordinates leaves less wiggle-room for argument.

[ericinmia]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm5.GIF

[wabbitoid]

No matter what you think of this model or the general possibility of it being as far west as New Orleans, the point is that there is a finite possibility that this is the Monster that Eats New Orleans. As long as that possibility exists, it is very important that Louisiana start taking precautions now (if not sooner) because the kind of evacuation that will be needed is immense. Compared to Frances, this will be Exodus (and if it does hit New Orleans as a 4 or 5, it will be like the Red Sea closing).

What is unfortunate is that these preparations take a lot of time. The Florida Keys may have been evacuated for "nothing", but anyone who knows about these things know that you have to decide before you have good information. And, it seems, we got nuthin'.

[Ixolib]

No nervous breakdown here (and I'm in Louisiana). Been through quite a few in my many years, if by some odd chance that it heads this way, we will weather it and move right along.

I hear 'ya breeze... Storms come and go, some worse than others and some not so bad. But no matter what, things do return to normal down the road, and most folks generally come out okay when everything's said and done. Been through several in my years too - all in the same neighborhood right next door over here in MS. No need gettin' all nerved up anyway - ain't gonna change what's meant to be.

[calidoug]

NorthGaWeather, Re: "I said the samething last night."

Yes, which is part of the problem. If you disagree, post your coordinate estimates for 2145Z and 0345Z.

At that point the heading is just:

270 + arctan( change in long / change in lat )

[NorthGaWeather]

I did last night but you seem to think that recon and NHC estimates aren't correct.

[EverythingIsEverything]

Does the NHC expect alot of weakening possibly down to a Cat. 2?