Ivan Advisories

[southerngale]

I've noticed the west Gulf Coasters really pick up on a model when it trends their way. Seriously, though, the CMC has been the most consistent with making this a Appalachicola westward strike. I think it is now trending too far west, but I agree it has performed the best thus far.

Of course rxdoc. Would you expect west gulf coasters to ignore it or not discuss it? That would be silly. If there's any chance their area could be affected, it is just common sense that they'd be more interested. I see plenty of west gulf coasters discussing Ivan period. For them to hush up when a model trends their way would be ridiculous.

[dennis1x1]

the official is around a min cat 3.....100-105 kts.....

[ericinmia]

appears when he hit 80 west he realized it was time to go north a little so he took a jog in the nice evening weather...
-Eric

[LowMug]

ACK!! Screw that model.

Yea...I am south of St. Andrews...can you say screwed if it was to be so

[Lindaloo]

Low Mug? How can you be South of St. Andrews? That would put you out in the Gulf.

[latemodel25]

off topic here but you wouldnt happen to be a met in tampa would you?

[LowMug]

Low Mug? How can you be South of St. Andrews? That would put you out in the Gulf.

yep pretty much...800 yards away from the Gulf ...I meant south of the entrance to St. Andrews

[mobilebay]

IT has shifted west again. That means so for the GFS is again the eastern outlier near Appilachicola.

[latemodel25]

dennis1x1 is whom im refering to

[Lindaloo]

AH okay, gotcha! That area was pretty messed up from georges. That area is growing. I have not been out there since georges. Did that lighthouse survive?

[calidoug]

I'll take that as a "No, I don't have any coordinate estimate for 2145Z and 0345Z frames."

Well I do:

2145Z: 79.71W 18.03N
0345Z: 80.03W 18.21N



arctan( .18 / .32) = arctan( .5625 ) = 29.35 degrees + 270 = 299 heading.

Voila!

If you disagree with my coords, provide your own.

[ strictly speaking, this heading formula is not perfect, but in the tropics, it's accurate to within a degree or so. ]

[dennis1x1]

nope...im a fairly well studied amateur in dallas.....my speciality is current observations..leave forecasting to the models and nhc..

[Ixolib]

I've noticed the west Gulf Coasters really pick up on a model when it trends their way. Seriously, though, the CMC has been the most consistent with making this a Appalachicola westward strike. I think it is now trending too far west, but I agree it has performed the best thus far.

Of course rxdoc. Would you expect west gulf coasters to ignore it or not discuss it? That would be silly. If there's any chance their area could be affected, it is just common sense that they'd be more interested. I see plenty of west gulf coasters discussing Ivan period. For them to hush up when a model trends their way would be ridiculous.

Thanks, Southern.... I often wonder why folks can't just make factual, useable comments without having to attach sarcasm to their posts. Guess it's just a reflection of society, but this unfortunate TREND has surely picked up in here in the last few days.

[Lockhart]

Now that's more like it. It's nice to have have real analysis instead of vague "no, it isn't!". Good math. Thanks.

[LowMug]

AH okay, gotcha! That area was pretty messed up from georges. That area is growing. I have not been out there since georges. Did that lighthouse survive?

yes m'am the lighthouse is still there ... as is Dr. Sangani's unbelievable house...

[montrealboy]

IT has shifted west again. That means so for the GFS is again the eastern outlier near Appilachicola.

Interesting Nogaps trends west and as well as the Canadian, the questions is will the track move more west in the next runs?

[calidoug]

Yeah, the last frame didn't show a west wobble. It was NW, with the eye also distorting a bit.

The last 12 frames (through 0345Z) work out to a heading of 300. (1/3 of the way from W to N)

2145Z: 79.71W, 18.03N
0345Z: 80.03W, 18.21N

(Measured using large blowups of those frames)

[Ixolib]

AH okay, gotcha! That area was pretty messed up from georges. That area is growing. I have not been out there since georges. Did that lighthouse survive?

yes m'am the lighthouse is still there ... as is Dr. Sangani's unbelievable house...

...and they say money can't buy happiness!!

[Sean in New Orleans]

IT has shifted west again. That means so for the GFS is again the eastern outlier near Appilachicola.

Interesting Nogaps trends west and as well as the Canadian, the questions is will the track move more west in the next runs?

Probably a little...I wouldn't think a whole lot...maybe to Destin.

[wabbitoid]

The NHC forecast had it going right over Grand Cayman, but if you extrapolate that loop it'll be just a shade west of Grand Cayman. If it doesn't turn NW in the next few hours, will it ever?