Ivan Advisories

[themusk]

Eric, I completely agree.

I'd like to suggest to the mods here something that might seem draconian -- ban the accusation of "-removed-". Anyone flinging around the word should get precisely one warning, and on second offense, be suspended indefinitely. I think the recent spate of ugliness needs to be firmly and decisively stamped out, now.

[Greg]

The last frame looks like "SuperDuck" trying to stop the spin of the hurricane, or pull it East.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

He's pulling on the north end of the outflow, which seems to be drafting rather quickly to the east.

[Deana Cuevas]

I appreciate you honesty as well. I'm new to this and I have been accused of "-removed-" because I am just worried. I live in Tampa and by no means want this one or anyone for that matter. Any clue on what you think might happen?

[ericinmia]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

The bridge between the highs appears to be strenghtening, and about to bridge another group of isobars between the texas high, and the bermuda. The one anomaly is that it has been pushed a little northward by the ULL in the southwest atlantic. This has caused the lower boundaries of the high to be at south florida now, no longer in the carribean. This should allow Ivan to go a little northward to some degree before hitting the wall again. If this high scenario persists which it seems to be doing for at least the next 24 hours... Ivan shouldn't be moving anywhere very fast, and most likely will be heading mouch more west than predicted thus far.
It all depend on what the high does in the next 24-48 hours. and ... if the ull moves farther west toward florida, that could cause firther weakening of the high allowing Ivan to move up into the gulf.

Its a big puzzle right now, with no easy clear solution... someone has erased the image off our pieces and based on shape alone it is very hard to put it together...
-Eric

EDIT:
Thanks for the support... i have been quite frustrated with the board lately, and appreciate that others have seen the same nonsense occuring. I agree that "-removed-" should be a suspension offense. It and all the bickering are ruing this board, and taking up a great deal of space.

EDIT2: lol
Here are some windmaps...
The first shows that at the upper levels the trough is still present, and pushing into the gulf/florida.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8wvir.GIF

The second image shows the lower level winds which show the still strong westerly flow across the region just north of Ivan.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /wg8ir.GIF

The third image shows the general visible winds, and that they are westerly just north of Ivan, similar to the low level.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8v4km.GIF

On the topic of shear... If Ivan makes it to the GOM he will have to deal with 30+kt wind shear currents. This is the current conditions.
Upper Level....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Mid Level....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF

This shows the shear tendency...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[bigmike]

I'm curious. I live about 60 miles inland from destin florida. I was looking at the inland wind models on the nhc site about how much wind someone can expect with a certain category of a storm. Anyone got any idea about what my area can expect during a cat 3 or 4? I live in a concrete block house up on a bluff so not real sure what to expect. I am in the process of boarding up tomorrow and getting out to my sister in pensacola. Packing the clothes and the cats up. I wish all my fellow emerald coasters well and just remember paradise can be rebuilt:)

[Deana Cuevas]

Greg, can you tell me this in english? I'm new

[bahamaswx]

Too early to board up and evac IMO. Also the inland winds would depend upon the forward movement.

[Greg]

I'm new too, as you can tell by the SuperDuck reference. If you look at the picture as a whole, it looks like a duck holding the top of the hurricane.

There seems to be a wind blowing on the top to the east, which would be his arm.

I Noticed your in Northdale. I'm near Ehrlich and Turner.

[SwampDawg]

naaa...it was a turn to the NW. Wait...no...it's the SE. Wait...no...it's the NE. Wait...no...just kidding guys. Stop looking at every frame.

[Deana Cuevas]

Northdale and Wilcox. Is that bad for us or good for us?

[Deana Cuevas]

I guess we are they only 2 up over here watching this. I really hope it doesn't come this way. I just want to know what to expect. ie. Hurricane winds, Tropical Storm winds or what.

[ericinmia]

hope that helps a little...

At this point you should start to prepare anywhere throughout the gulf; but, you'll just have to wait it out. Most likely after this storm passes cuba we will know MUCH better where it will be going.
-Eric

[Greg]

It could do anything at this point. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I think we fared pretty well with Frances, which was a borderline cat 1 by the time it got here. I have figured out that we are 14 miles from the bay, and out of the evac zone. Its fairly high ground up here, so it removes at least one element from the equation at least.

We are boarded up, but it is left over from Frances.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Thanks for the links, Eric...very informative.

[anjou]

Heard on TV and thought it sounded odd... would like to clarify - Cuba is NOT CURRENTLY getting 20 foot waves due to Ivan is it? That's just the forecast storm surge isn't it... when the hurricane finally gets there...

[ericinmia]

Deana-
as of now its not possible to accurately forecast that. Even the NHC is very unsure about their forecast. You will have to wait until after Ivan passes about 22n or cuba... then we will know what is driving Ivan where. But as of now there is not mutch pulling/pushing him anywhere.

The duck above is wind shear the is cutting off the north to north east of Ivan. That ULL is very very important to where Ivan will end up. If it moves west, it will cause a weakness allowing Ivan to move into the GOM.
-Eric

[glopst7162]

They are still up as of 1:40 AM EST.

[Deana Cuevas]

yeah we still have boards up. Do you think downtown will be open on Monday? I read on another thread there was going to very high storm surge? I Know the whold bayshore got hit hard with Frances. I hope this at least calms down the rush for gas.

[dennis1x1]

they may be getting 20ft waves.......those arent too uncommon when a storm is around.....

surge is alot different than waves (someone try explaining THAT to the media)..the surge is what comes with the eye....and it doesnt "break"...

[anjou]

Oh, simple enough. Cool - thanks.