Ivan Advisories

[SwampDawg]

Sean, good post. It's nice to have information like this. He gives reasons along with his guess.

[Deana Cuevas]

THANKS ERIC! I've been on this darn computer all day and all night trying to get someone to tell in words I can understand. That helps... I've been going to all the links and looking at everything every one said to. You made it very clear.. I can finally understand - somewhat, what I am waiting for. THANKS!

[ericinmia]

Oops i screwed up... sorry... look below for the image...

[ericinmia]

[Possum Trot]

I've heard/read that storm surge is caused by the low pressure of the cyclone and thus the water underneath the cyclone bulges. Is this correct?

[Chilly_Water]

Sign Off?!? Jamaica radio MON!

[Greg]

Deana,
The city will be open. The gas stations have been alright. Its the panic causing the lines after work. Once everyone fills up the gas stations will be empty (void of crowds) because everyone will have gas.

It seems to me a hurricane is a cloud that wants to go where all the other clouds are going, but I'm not an expert at all.

[dennis1x1]

not really....its caused by the winds "pushing" the water...

the difference in pressure isnt really enough to lift the ocean..if so we would be shot like darts through the eye of the storm when the eye passed

[AL Chili Pepper]

I believe it might be going through an eye-wall replacement. In the last few frames of the visible loop above, you could notice the eye becoming less symmetric. Now...well, check out this shot.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[Stormsfury]

165 MPH, 910 MB ... sixth strongest storm in the ATL basin on record ...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[boca]

I know SE FL is not in the cone anymore but can we rest easy or do we still have to watch it.

[dennis1x1]

latest sat shows ivan beginning a reorg stage...much like yesterday morning when the pressure rose about 20mb before the major restrengthening begin....same signature now..

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[Sean in New Orleans]

Watch it and rest easier, not easy, IMO....I never totally rest easy until the system is over land (for good).

[dennis1x1]

rest easy.....this thing is in no way going to approach you from the ocean side....

[HurricaneJoe22]

we need to watch it in SE Florida until it goes a degree or two north of our latitude

[Hurrilurker]

That's hard to believe, based on what the last satellite frame looks like. Convection is asymmetrical and reduced, eye is a bit ragged on the south side (although still clear). The northwest of the storm in particular looks pretty bad: ragged, little convection, and greatly restricted outflow. Maybe they haven't gotten any recon in lately to change it? I'd be really surprised if the pressure isn't up at least 4 mb, if not a lot more. Anyone know when the next recon pass is?

[boca]

Thankyou,my car is already damaged from Frances. I just don't need any more.

[dennis1x1]

the nhc kind of operates like those who set the gas prices.....easy up, slow down.

[Stormsfury]

That's hard to believe, based on what the last satellite frame looks like. Convection is asymmetrical and reduced, eye is a bit ragged on the south side (although still clear). The northwest of the storm in particular looks pretty bad: ragged, little convection, and greatly restricted outflow. Maybe they haven't gotten any recon in lately to change it? I'd be really surprised if the pressure isn't up at least 4 mb, if not a lot more. Anyone know when the next recon pass is?

Should be pretty soon ... I was hoping a new RECON message would be in before I called it a night ...

Oh well, been up for 22 hours, gotta sleep sometime ...

SF

[Wnghs2007]

Also for all that are interested it has moved .1 N and .4 W since the last advisory according to this.