Ivan Advisories

[HurricaneBill]

According to the latest:

Grenada: 34

Barbados: 1

Tobago: 1

Dominican Republic: 4

Venezuela: 5

Jamaica: 16

[PurdueWx80]

Also notice...the ridge (darker colors on WV image I posted above) to the W/NW/N of the storm is still holding strong. As of 0645Z the 'cane is a bit south of the NHC track. That ridge is going nowhere...and Ivan is going to the W-WNW. The ridge actually appears to have gotten stronger since 0345Z.

[PurdueWx80]

[dennis1x1]

just animate the last 2....6:45 and 7:02 i think...you can get a sense at how quickly the bright whites are getting ready to explode again...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 98W.INVEST,

[calidoug]

Up 5mb not 20mb...

Dennis is always trying to weaken these storms down to TDs with "shear"...

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah...and a convective band is also exploding to the west of the storm...this hasn't happened in a while. It looks (as of now) that Grand Cayman will not be going through the eye. The eyewall may just brush the southern course, but the ridge will keep Ivan from making a direct hit.

[dennis1x1]

and again doug has a hard time reading......still have a cat 6 going into miami doug...is that dramatic enough for ya?

[dennis1x1]

id say its 50-50 that the eyewall makes a direct hit.....one more big bobble north at any time would probably do it......


the resorts are all on the very west side...

[calidoug]

It's an EWRC, and a little dry air is being pulled in from the NW.

[LSU2001]

crew boats at fourchon/grand isle were loaded helos too. I guess they are getting ready

[ericinmia]

i agree, very good chance of a eyewall viewing oportunity.
-Eric

[Chilly_Water]

UPDATE: just got home awhile ago and checked my email to find one from my Caymanian friend's brother in Texas. As of 10:15pm(EDT), my friends are NOT holed up at the bank as was previously thought. They are/were now sleeping(imagine that) in the L'Ambiance subdivision in Georgetown on the SW side of the island. My friend's brother has contact as of 10:15pmEDT via cell phone with them and is passing on information. If I hear anything, I'll pass it on.

[Praxus]

Elipse seems to be over

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[dennis1x1]

well thats still a 3:45 shot.....but yes its over.....

[southerngale]

It's the 6:45 shot now.

[Hurrilurker]

Now that's weird, between 6:45 and 7:15 it appears to be nearly stationary, but if anything looks like a touch due west. It's hard to get a good sense of the overall motion because of the missing elipse frames, but it looks to me like the eye will probably pass south at this point. The eye is also not looking very healthy, it's rather ragged and has lost all those pretty concentric gradient rings.

[dennis1x1]

IF Ivan moves at a mean 300 degrees until he reaches Grand Cayman the eyewall will make landfall.....

i say its 50-50 at this point......

[Viper54r]

Is it safe to say its been just a hair north of due west the last three hours(during eclipse)?

[NateFLA]

Looks to me like its following NHC track, if not just a smidge of a pinch of a hair of north of it ...

[Chilly_Water]

I did not mean to insinuate that I was sure of a Caymanian landfall. I was only updating forum readers to the conditions of the Cayman Islands and my friends mentioned earlier in this thread. I apologize for leading people to believe that the eyewall will hit the Cayman Islands...but I do PREDICT it will be a direct hit.