Ivan Advisories

[KWT]

I personally think it's just a EWR,Ivan will be back to full power soon!!!!

[Coastal-GA]

Forecast Discussion Out of Charleston, SC:

Charleston, SC MET a couple of hours ago:
ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT THE STRONG MID AND UPPER LOW IN THE ATLC AROUND 30 N AND 65 W COULD TURN OUT TO BE THE FRIEND TO OUR CWA /SO TO SPEAK/ REGARDING THE THE FUTURE TRACK OF IVAN. IF IT HOLDS FIRM IT WOULD SET UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS IT WOULD PREVENT THE ATLC RIDGE FROM SHIFTING E. THAT IN TURN WOULD KEEP IVAN W OF THE CWA. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

[abajan]

,,,Hurricane damage is based on an exponential scale. 10 mph difference doesn't equate to a 10% increase in damage, it's more like a 30-40% increase.

That's what some of us don't seem to understand. Yes, I agree it's a godsend for the Caymans that the winds have gone down that much.

[Lockhart]

It really is amazing the flack Calidoug takes for stating the obvious. Give it a rest people. He's merely making an observation.

[Lockhart]

Sure, we won't be getting 140+ mph winds. That doesn't mean we shouldn't keep an eye out.

[redfisher]

what is CWA?

[Ratchet]

I`m only doing this for one reason, That is some that I as a "newbie" found a reason as of why not to ask...

The dance will held, to that there no dought, it is now in the the hands of all of us as to the out come...

But if then at times, what we ourselfs wish so hard to control, become`s far from our grasp, and we as mankind, so wish we could, but for someome else, if the surrender, is to held in faith of the outcome, for our, and your own sacrifice is to become questioned, then You my friend, have just questioned your own Reasoning as to why.

I apologise for the "run-on" of the "kings-english", with a total heart of remorse,

Ratchet

[southerngale]

county warning area

[Innotech]

It will obviously affect the islands, but it looks like Ivan has dodged them! The eye will not pass over Grand Cayman..

[abajan]

Seems like they've been downplaying that trend since Ivan formed! I mean, remember when it was forcasted to slam into Barbados?

[mobilebay]

It will obviously affect the islands, but it looks like Ivan has dodged them! The eye will not pass over Grand Cayman..

Yes, another "short term west wobble"

[mobilebay]

Seems like they've been downplaying that trend since Ivan formed! I mean, remember when it was forcasted to slam into Barbados?

THANK YOU!!! That's what I was trying to say earlier.

[Air Force Met]

It will obviously affect the islands, but it looks like Ivan has dodged them! The eye will not pass over Grand Cayman..

It's only going to pass 30 miles south of them. That will put them in the outer fringes of the eyewall. They'll get cat 3 winds on the souther coasts. They are getting the worst side...and the worst part of the eyewall.

[HollynLA]

I sure hope it does miss them, atleast the eye. My neighbors family live in the Grand Caymen and I hope the best for them. I'll be curious to see the pictures coming in after Ivan has passed (hopefully on his trip to Mexico)

[CFL]

I think perhaps what they are doing is erring on the side of caution until they know just how far west Ivan will be from the Florida peninsula. While it looks likely that the Florida peninsula won't take a direct hit, it is possible they could feel the effects of the east side of the storm as it heads north. If things continue to trend west today and tonight I think we may notice a change.

[Ixolib]

Seems like they've been downplaying that trend since Ivan formed! I mean, remember when it was forcasted to slam into Barbados?

THANK YOU!!! That's what I was trying to say earlier.

Good morning, Mobile... I've come to rely on your extensive research and posting on the models - and I've also see you get bashed several times for your persistence (that's ashame ). But I'd like to thank you for the updates!! This AM, what's your read on things for us in the central gulf?

[mobilebay]

I think perhaps what they are doing is erring on the side of caution until they know just how far west Ivan will be from the Florida peninsula. While it looks likely that the Florida peninsula won't take a direct hit, it is possible they could feel the effects of the east side of the storm as it heads north. If things continue to trend west today and tonight I think we may notice a change.

aslo... just in the new GFDL is west into Pensacola/baldwin County on the 06Z run.

[caneman]

I think perhaps what they are doing is erring on the side of caution until they know just how far west Ivan will be from the Florida peninsula. While it looks likely that the Florida peninsula won't take a direct hit, it is possible they could feel the effects of the east side of the storm as it heads north. If things continue to trend west today and tonight I think we may notice a change.

aslo... just in the new GFDL is west into Pensacola/baldwin County on the 06Z run.

NEw UKMET is in and into Appalachacola

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... /MIATCPAT4

The same thing happened to the Gran Cayman islands as it happened to Jamaica as the eye has not crossed over them but they are getting very strong winds anyway but the worse will miss them.Will Ivan avoid Cuba too?

[dwinpcola]

looking at the models and I am uncertain why NHC moved the path further east since last night when the models have shifted more west.


guess time will tell