Ivan Advisories

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Lowpressure
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#561 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:38 pm

calidoug wrote:Lowpressure, say what? If the storm were to move due N, say, for 48 hours, that wouldn't mean much?

Current movement helps to define the strength of the ridge to the N, which matters a great deal.



Give some people on this board some credit. Of course north would change things, for one it would be a fish. I am saying that 280 or 285 really does not matter that much. Sure it has implications. My point was that lately many posters are too fixed on is it 280-or 285, or even, no it is a wobble. 5 degrees at this point still will not pin this down. Models will shift east if it continues. It is too early to tell. It does not increase or decrease the threat to Florida. It is the true direction change that matters.
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12 UTC UKMET has landfall Near Ft Myers !!

#562 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:39 pm

HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 65.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2004 12.4N 65.4W INTENSE

00UTC 09.09.2004 13.7N 68.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2004 14.6N 70.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.09.2004 16.0N 72.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2004 17.3N 74.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2004 18.6N 77.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2004 19.0N 78.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.09.2004 19.7N 80.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2004 20.6N 80.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.09.2004 22.3N 81.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.09.2004 24.4N 82.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.09.2004 26.9N 81.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.09.2004 30.0N 81.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Grafic below.

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

Oh my I hope that this is not going to happen.Almost same spot that Charley made landfall.
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#563 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:39 pm

either way...Jacksonville is in its path...as of now that is...
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#564 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:40 pm

I don't like either although the ukmet would be a tad better for me, we would be on the west side...if thats better :eek: Either way I hope Florida doesn't have to deal with Ivan the terrible :(
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#565 Postby rainstorm » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:40 pm

what a great path. nothing like a cat 5 destroying
the state of florida
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#566 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:41 pm

hurricanedude wrote:either way...Jacksonville is in its path...as of now that is...


KEY PHRASE: "AS OF NOW"
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#567 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:42 pm

good 4 u band...bad 4 me...
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#568 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:43 pm

Yes, I'm watching them as they come on. Here's the last one

URNT11 KNHC 081714
97779 17144 40143 68300 30500 07045 09068/ /3113 40535
RMK AF977 0809A IVAN OB 05

as 1:14 EDT there at 14.3N 68.3W
They are almost to the eye.
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#569 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:43 pm

scary thing is the NHC has been good on their tracks this year, until I am out of the cone...I will be a little worried :(
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#570 Postby rainstorm » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:43 pm

a florida hit is certain now
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#571 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:44 pm

:fishing:
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#572 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:44 pm

:talk to the hand: rainstorm!!! :talk to the hand: :lol:
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#573 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:45 pm

certain...no....increasing possibility yes.
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#574 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:45 pm

THey're scheduled to be on station at around 2pm or so.
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#575 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:45 pm

rainstorm wrote:a florida hit is certain now
Why?? Too early to say that :roll:
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#576 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:45 pm

rainstorm wrote:a florida hit is certain now


with all respect:

how can you say this with such certainty? NOBODY can possibly know this....i thought these were the sort of post that were suppose to be banned??
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#577 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:46 pm

Back that up with some kind of scientific obs or delete it helen.
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#578 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:46 pm

no..this is not flaming...she is just speculating.....she is not bashing anyone
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#579 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:46 pm

Nothing is certain. Yes, a Florida hit looks likely, but we know how that can change.
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#neversummer

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#580 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:47 pm

obviously someone dont know what the difference is in posting opinions and bashing members..her post is fine imo
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