Ivan Advisories

[JoanFlorida]

"Quit thinking so much"...and that reasoning, ladies and gentleman, is why we subject our students to the FCAT today...

Simply spitting out facts won't get anyone to the other side of anything. Thinking...hmmm...the thing we do with our brain, that appendage at the top of our head, is what separates us from, well, you know...those slimey- crawly creatures that roam the earth (and I didn't mean that in a political sense, although it does fit quite nicely.)

Anyway... I like that you think and acknowledge your thoughts about warning the Yucatan.

My instinct (a no-brainer; all heart) says its going west some more before it goes north...that is a big freakin' bowling ball!

[x-y-no]

Gotta say I'm once again quite impressed with your forecasting. You held firm with a more westward track, and so far that's verifying quite well.

Excellent job.

[Brent]

cat 2....cuba landfall irrelevant now that us landfall days after cuban.....very strong windshear will take ivan to near strong cat 2, per ships model and nhc forecast.

NHC has it a strong Cat 3 for landfall.

72HR VT 15/1200Z 28.3N 85.5W 110 KT(125 mph)
96HR VT 16/1200Z 32.5N 84.5W 55 KT...INLAND

[Stephanie]

So far Derek, your predictions about the wind velocity and the pressure have really been good. I remember yesterday you had posted those incredible forecasts that surprised even you. Last night, when I was watching the news and saw the winds up to 165 mph and the preseeure down to 910 millobars (I think), I couldn't help but think back to your posts and same "damn he's good"!

[Guest]

current trend.....that will never verify

[dennis1x1]

no..they have it as a strong cat 3 (and weakening) at 72 hours.....

[das8929]

I think a strong 3 to weak 4. Maybe 130-140, somewhere in that neighborhood. If it goes further west, thats a different story.

[Ixolib]

current trend.....that will never verify

If that will never verify, which way do you believe will be more verifiable?

[Derek Ortt]

that turn is a CYA thing

[birdwomn]

Interestingly, Steve Lyons never mentioned the Watches except for a "change in Cuba" in his 10:50 update?

TWC, Lyons in particular, hasn't been too good about going thru the watches and warnings lately. I noticed it with Frances, when I was waiting and waiting for the watches and warning to go up so I could close and let my employees go home and prepare. I don't know if it is a matter of air time, or that he thinks one of the others is going thru them so he can talk about other things. It is very frustrating, tho.

[rdcrds]

it's not more right, it's the same as before. NHC refuses to move it west because of the tampabay area. If they do, they are out of the cone, then if it makes the turn like it may... Oh boy do they have PR cleanup to do with a hurricane going outside of the cone..So they are just protecting themselves. Sadly it's kinda at the risk of the people to the west. But after what florida has been through they are protecting them, and themselves for the eventually " right hook "

[PTPatrick]

I agree about the CYA...they are making the track bend back east a little so as not to totally take the Western FL coast off gaurd yet. Noe reputable model is showing anything East of destin at this point.

[SwampDawg]

GGirl...everyone needs to be watching this thing right now. It's not just a little ole tropical storm, it's one of the big daddy's of all. Just keep an eye out. Most of the models haven't been right thus far, so there is nothing to lead me to believe that they will be. *May a high pressure build over Louisiana and protect us*

[Seele]

Thankfully, Grand Cayman does look like it's spared a direct hit from the most powerful winds this storm has produced. I still think they are in the very worst of this storm right now. The latest vortx msg reported a 70 mile diameter secondary eyewall with the most intense current winds around it. From the looks off of satalite, Grand cayman is on the edge of that eyewall now. Am I wrong to think that this EWRC happened at the worst time for them given Ivan's current track?

[Lindaloo]

Man oh man I didn't need this kind of confirmation of my concerns!!! Unfortuanately, I do have to agree with your reasoning so far. That is why I called my Mother near Destin last night and told he to get out and come see us here in Houston. Of course she is sure she will be ok at her church which is supposedly built to withstand such things. I don't need to bore you with the conversation, but "you can lead a horse to water, you can't make them drink."

Yep,,, In Elena, my mom wouldn't go until about 1 hour before landfall!!

I slept through Elena. lol.

[Brent]

it's not more right, it's the same as before. NHC refuses to move it west because of the tampabay area. If they do, they are out of the cone, then if it makes the turn like it may... Oh boy do they have PR cleanup to do with a hurricane going outside of the cone..So they are just protecting themselves. Sadly it's kinda at the risk of the people to the west. But after what florida has been through they are protecting them, and themselves for the eventually " right hook "

It's about 10 miles to the east. 5am track was closer to Cape San Blas and Panama City.

[das8929]

This is the most retarded thing I ever heard and if he does go in there trying to dump that junk in our oceans hopefully he'll get what he deserves...

[HurricaneQueen]

The just had the watch/warnings advisories again and still no mention of the Keys????? That is truly scary.

[Ixolib]

Man oh man I didn't need this kind of confirmation of my concerns!!! Unfortuanately, I do have to agree with your reasoning so far. That is why I called my Mother near Destin last night and told he to get out and come see us here in Houston. Of course she is sure she will be ok at her church which is supposedly built to withstand such things. I don't need to bore you with the conversation, but "you can lead a horse to water, you can't make them drink."

Yep,,, In Elena, my mom wouldn't go until about 1 hour before landfall!!

I slept through Elena. lol.

Yeah... I've been through worse, but was pretty cool watching the eye pass overhead just before daybreak!!

[PurdueWx80]

Code: Select all

     
      FLIGHT FIVE
      A. 12/1500,1800,2100Z
      B. AFXXX 2409A IVAN
      C. 12/1100Z
      D. 21.2N 80.6W
      E. 12/1400Z TO 12/2130Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



      FLIGHT THREE                   FLIGHT FOUR
      A. 13/0000,0300,0600Z      A. 13/0900,1200,1500Z
      B. AFXXX 2709A IVAN        B. AFXXX 2809A IVAN
      C. 12/2030Z                      C. 13/0530Z
      D. 21.3N 82.0W                  D. 22.5N 82.7W
      E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0630Z   E. 13/0800Z TO 13/1530Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Expect frequent Vortex messages now through landfall.