Ivan Advisories

[weatherFrEaK]

Not from the radio, but firsthand cell phone Grand Cayman account on another forum...

SUV washed away.
Water coming in to second story in condo.
Boats coming in and smashing everywhere.
Cars floating everywhere.
Everything is water now.
People next door screaming as water comes in to second floor.
Roofs off everywhere.
Cell phone communications now lost.

[Scott_inVA]

SwampDawg,

Given the amount of water vapor in a hurricane and the limited amount of absorbent material available--assuming no environmental harm from the dumping of such material--I doubt that this experiment would have a significant impact on the hurricane. It might be more akin to dumping a few hundred rolls of paper towel into an Olympic-sized swimming pool.

Points are on the mark, Don.

My issue with this is physics. These cowboys offer no scientific data to explain what happens to the heat generated and transported by a tropical cyclone. These wx systems aren't flukes; they serve a purpose.
Curiously, the Dyn-o-mat hype has been on mitigating damage produced by a TC (noble enough one supposes) but devoid of modeling or published research indicating where that energy goes. *poof*, I guess.

Scott

[x-y-no]

Dewpoint is way up. Is he about to go through another ERC?

[weatherFrEaK]

no, the worst is still around the primary eyewall..and its well offshore...the secondary wind maxima may be close to the coast....

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44285

[Juno Beach]

...I really, REALLY want to take down the boards over my sliding glass doors, but I certainly don't want to get caught with my pants down.

Is there ANY chance this thing gets out in the GOM and just stalls, and different steering mechanisms take over - possibly sending it east?

[wabbitoid]

Where does a 500lb gorilla -- er, Category 5 storm wander?

Wherever it wants to!

[LadyStorm]

What you are seeing is the eye recycling itself, not a westward jog.

and it has trended to the WEST! I'm inclined to ignore this shift for now, but it has even higher implications for LA (and TX?). Here is the fcst at 72 hrs.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_50.gif

[Derek Ortt]

That thing on WV appears somewhat weak according to the 500mb observations and it would have to drop much farther south to bring Ivan north. This was the thing that origionally was supposed to bring Ivan toward Florida

[gkrangers]

Dewpoint is way up. Is he about to go through another ERC?

NHC says he is going through one right now.

[mobilebay]

That thing on WV appears somewhat weak according to the 500mb observations and it would have to drop much farther south to bring Ivan north. This was the thing that origionally was supposed to bring Ivan toward Florida

Derek check out the 12Z GFS. Much further west. At least through 84H.

[cloud_galaxy]

from stormcarib board:

"Talked to brother at 10:50am. Said the state of the art (cat 5 ) (Cable and Wireless) building (on Grand Cayman) is fine and everyone in there is safe. Said everything that was standing outside the building when they got there (about 12:00 midnight) is no longer standing."

[hesperhys]

I took another window's worth of shutters down this am after seeing the 5 am forecast. Still have about 2/3 of windows shuttered, though, and will leave them that way until this thing is well north of me (Miami)... besides, who wants to spend a lot of time on a gorgeous Sunday taking shutters down?

[PurdueWx80]

What you are seeing is the eye recycling itself, not a westward jog.

and it has trended to the WEST! I'm inclined to ignore this shift for now, but it has even higher implications for LA (and TX?). Here is the fcst at 72 hrs.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_50.gif

Noooo..lol...I was referring to what the model is doing since it's last run (it is further west at 72 hours than last night's run). In other news, the NOGAPS has New Orleans written all over it. The 12Z GFS is further west too, but still remains the easternmost global model.

[Aquawind]

I tend to think the strength and size of the system is enhancing the ridging affect to the north and thus pushing the system further westward..Seems like the models are responding to that versus forecasting it..

[Derek Ortt]

Avila is not as slow as it appears. From what I have heard, he gets more excited about a hurricane than does any of the other forecasters.

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldnt be surprised if I have to shift to western Louisiana by tomorrow mornign with these latest trends.

I am starting to get a feeling that this is Gilbert all over again

[Chilly_Water]

Like weatherFrEak, NOT radio but CELL PHONE contact-
I too just got an e-mail from the brother of a friend living on in Georgetown who was in contact via cell phone. He reported that my friends think their roof is damaged and they have taken shelter in an interior closet. Bad flooding everywhere and white caps can be seen on the roads. Other friends who they are in contact with have reported that the first floor of their 2-story condo has flooded badly

[drezee]

364
URNT12 KNHC 121602
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/15:05:00Z
B. 18 deg 56 min N
081 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2429 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 059 deg 130 kt
G. 329 deg 028 nm
H. 922 mb
I. 6 C/ 3356 m
J. 17 C/ 3346 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-40
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040912IVAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 14:55:10 Z
INNER EYE RAGGED

[Opal storm]

I think everybody in the FL peninsula can take their shutters down now,Ivan will be too far west for any wind damage or flooding.

[chakalakasp]

First of all, I think folks need to realize that this person is very new to the board and qualified his/her statement with: "any thoughts". They're asking for input and clarification as to why Ivan wont be visiting Texas. Please take the time to explain why it most likely wont go there versus rolling the eyes and exhaling with exasperation.

THANK YOU, Alicia!! And I'll second that motion. Ma'ma always taught - "If 'ya can't say something nice, don't say anything at all". The same should hold for adults as well. We can have good discussion without the eyes, exhaling, exasperation, and sarcasm.

To play devil's advocate for a moment, you can't just look at the impact to the poster, you have to think of the impact on potential readers. When someone -- anyone -- starts an entire new thread in all caps declaring a landfall in an area that no forecaster or model believes will receive landfall, it creates confusion in the minds of people not very familiar with forecasting. It makes people worry who don't need to worry, and it comforts people in the real storm path who want to live in (temporarily) blissful ignorance.

The rule applies to anyone, old or new -- if you are going to make a bold assertion that goes against conventional wisdom, you must support it with facts and reasoning, or at the very least lay out your thought process. Otherwise people will discount, mock, and generally get frustrated with you. This applies in real life, not just the internet.

Who knows, maybe the original poster was a 13 year old -- but on the net, since nobody knows age or education, all we have to go on is perception.