Ivan Advisories

[southerngale]

Come on people this system is still moving to the WNW. At the way its going it may past 20N and 85W. Now the NHC might be seeing something we not but they said the NW turn should happen in 12-24 hours. They said that at 11 this morning, now its 2 now the time has closed in to 9-21 hours we should see that turn. IF it occurs like they thing it will.

Just a little FYI...they also said it at 5am this morning.

[mobilebay]

That is the 12Z for today. You can get it by clicking on tropical models at he top of the storm 2k home page.

[Eyes2theSkies]

Here's some physics for you...what goes up, must come down. Has anyone ever let a baby in the swimming pool with a diaper on? When they get out, it weighs more than the baby and then this nasty gel starts oozing out in clumps. It's hell on the pool's pH and filter, can't imagine what something like that would do to something delicate like a coral reef...

[PurdueWx80]

Eric, the ridge is forecast to build slowly for the next couple of days. The actual wall you mention doesn't even fully show up in any model for another couple of days. It should/will build in response to rapidly falling heights in the western US, and the mini-trough in the MS valley will lift NE over it as the ridge strengthens. Ivan is pouring all sorts of heat into this area and points south. I think the models are right on w/ this feature. It's just a matter of how far west Ivan gets before the eastern ridge builds and the western GOM ridge weakens enough for a northward movement.

The highs and lows we see on a map or satellite image don't just move around - they strenghten and deepen in response to changes elsewhere. That's why you can't look at the Bermuda high now and say that exact feature has to move west to build this wall.

[Ivanova]

I wonder if the "New City" in Nostradamus X-49
could be New Orleans

I just discovered there is a Port Sulphur
in the New Orleans metro area

http://www.epodunk.com/cgi-bin/genInfo. ... Index=3538

*

[lookout]

i believe you all are jumping to conclusions to think this storm is going to new orleans. the tropical model suite would have to be off by hundreds of miles and that is not likely. upper low will be in place over ms the next few days that is progged to remain stationary until ivan comes into the picture. this low should open a considerable weakness in the ridge which wont allow ivan to move any further west than mobile. indeed latest satellite images indicate that ivan is starting the stair step process turn to the northwest. this morning it was moving more northwest then wnw now it is back to a more northerly motion. it will probably wobble back more to the west shortly but the trend to a more northwesterly motion is starting imho.

[Rainband]

It's a wait and see game. Like I said till it's past me and on land someplace I am watching. The way this is going the entire GOM needs to watch Ivan. He isn't playing by any rules

[BensonTCwatcher]

Keep in mind that the NHC follows an SOP on when to change tracks. The criteria is not there yet. To start saying NO witha trough wekening the ridge and a second trough digging in, it woudl be foolish to shift the track now. Unless Ivan speeds up to 60 mph there is enough time to effectively warn the western GOM. Ivan is not going anywhere fast fro another 120 hrs at least.

[KatDaddy]

I know this was earlier this morning but it hold a true statement regarding monster storms creating their own environment

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HISTORICAL TRACKS OF
CATEGORY 4 AND 5 HURRICANES IN SEPTEMBER IN THE NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN
SEA ARE MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS YUCATAN...THEN MAINLAND
MEXICO...LIKE GILBERT. LARGER STORMS TEND TO CREATE THEIR OWN
ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE LESS INFLUENCE FROM SURROUNDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER...AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS...THERE HAVE BEEN
NUMEROUS STORMS THAT HAVE GONE AGAINST CLIMATOLOGY...SO THERE WILL
BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND FUTURE STRENGTH OF IVAN.
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO TAKE IVAN A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH EACH
MODEL RUN...BUT MOST ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW AND SUGGESTING A U.S.
LANDFALL NEAR PANAMA CITY FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN THE
UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CAUSE IVAN TO TURN NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AS HE NEARS THE NORTH GULF COAST. IT IS
STRONGLY ADVISED THAT EVERYONE WATCH FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THIS
HURRICANE.

[LakeToho]

It will be very interesting to see if Ivan behaves once he is in the gulf. Many hurricanes do not and the NHC and models seem to have real difficulty in correctly forecasting track in the gulf. Let see if Ivan wants to play..

[PurdueWx80]

We have no idea if he means the historical meaning of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico or the eastern half of the GOM. In the latter case, that would be anywhere from Near Orleans to Naples.

[Rainband]

I agree. 100%

[Lindaloo]

IMO anyone along the gulf coast has a right to discuss possible landfall in their area and the outcome if it does happen. No one is jumping to conclusions.

[QueenBee]

Lookout that means that the storm is still going west. The last time I checked it was going wnw. Where did you get your info from?

[stormchazer]

The models maybe starting to show a worrisome swing back East after 24 hours of westward progression. Nothing solid, but if the trend continues then it could get interesting.

I am still wondering if Ivan will ever come North. On a posting earlier this week, there was laughter about Dr. Lyons saying that Ivan would hit the Yucatan. Now I am wondering if he was right.

Everyone on the Gulfcoast keep an eye on Ivan.

[cape_escape]

I think after our Charley adventure, many of us are more apprehensive then we might otherwise be. I'm not about to take me eyes off of Ivan until he's well past me!

[jlauderdal]

I took another window's worth of shutters down this am after seeing the 5 am forecast. Still have about 2/3 of windows shuttered, though, and will leave them that way until this thing is well north of me (Miami)... besides, who wants to spend a lot of time on a gorgeous Sunday taking shutters down?

in an effort to avoid a "discussion" i told my wife you tell me what 50% of the shutters you want down..she said what about the other 50%, i said novemebr 1 and i walked out of the room.

[Fodie77]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Check off forecast points, that tells the story.

[southerngale]

IMO anyone along the gulf coast has a right to discuss possible landfall in their area and the outcome if it does happen. No one is jumping to conclusions.

Exactly. I didn't see anyone say it WAS going to New Orleans. They're just talking about "what if"

[lilbump3000]

Its going to go south of that second point.