Ivan Advisories

Cuzam · #6061 Postby **Cuzam** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Dont worrie about technnical things only go ahead .

Pheeww!! Muchas gracias, Luis

nolastorm · #6062 Postby **nolastorm** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:40 pm

Hi - first time posting though have been reading weather boards for years. Will sure be glad when I see what Ivan is going to do once he enters the GOM. Hope he stays well east of us but I want to be prepared just in case. Looking forward to everyone's guidance and opinions should Ivan get too close for comfort. Guess all we can do is wait and keep our eyes and ears open.

#6063 Postby **dhweather** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:41 pm

Welcome aboard, and yep, watch and wait on Ivan.

Cape Verde · #6064 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:42 pm

The NHC is warning Cuba, so Mexico had better look out.

#6065 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:42 pm

Frances in size:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

#6066 Postby **ericinmia** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:42 pm

lol, i agree.

they have had the general track pinned at least so they deserve some credit, however, they have followed the models to closely which have underestimated the ridge for far too long.
-Eric

canegrl04 · #6067 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:43 pm

Hes in a strengthening phase again :eek:

Sean in New Orleans · #6068 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:43 pm

...the system may make a landfall on the Yucatan. The system seems to be speeding up just a tad and is on more of a W/NW path than NW according to satellite...Any thoughts? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

canegrl04 · #6069 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:44 pm

CRAP

BigO · #6070 Postby **BigO** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:44 pm

I'm gnawing on my bottom lip too. All this cold medicine isn't making me any less paranoid either, I suspect. :wink:

bahamaswx · #6071 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:45 pm

You can clearly see the outer-eyewall contracting now. ERC should be complete in another 6 hours.

Derek Ortt · #6072 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:45 pm

we're starting to get to the point where a Hurricane WARNING may be necessary for the Yucatan

mobilebay · #6073 Postby **mobilebay** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:45 pm

ericinmia wrote:lol, i agree.

they have had the general track pinned at least so they deserve some credit, however, they have followed the models to closely which have underestimated the ridge for far too long.
-Eric

very good ob. eric. I agree 100%

#6074 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:45 pm

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

In the grafic the BAMM is the more pronnounced green line.Note that all the tropical suite after they go thru the Yucatan Channel they bend toward the NE more eat than other global models.

Code: Select all


  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  HURRICANE IVAN       (AL092004) ON 20040912  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040912  1800   040913  0600   040913  1800   040914  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    19.1N  82.1W   20.1N  83.7W   21.2N  85.2W   22.2N  86.4W
  BAMM    19.1N  82.1W   20.2N  84.1W   21.1N  85.8W   21.9N  86.9W
  A98E    19.1N  82.1W   19.8N  83.8W   20.7N  85.3W   21.9N  86.3W
  LBAR    19.1N  82.1W   20.2N  83.7W   21.5N  85.3W   23.3N  86.6W
  SHIP       130KTS         129KTS         129KTS         131KTS
  DSHP       130KTS         129KTS         108KTS         113KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040914  1800   040915  1800   040916  1800   040917  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    23.1N  87.4W   25.7N  88.1W   30.3N  85.0W   35.4N  83.0W
  BAMM    22.7N  87.7W   25.5N  87.5W   30.3N  85.3W   34.2N  83.3W
  A98E    23.4N  87.0W   25.8N  86.8W   29.7N  84.6W   37.8N  79.5W
  LBAR    25.1N  87.5W   28.9N  87.8W   31.6N  86.3W   33.5N  83.8W
  SHIP       128KTS         115KTS          97KTS          77KTS
  DSHP       110KTS          97KTS          36KTS          28KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  19.1N LONCUR =  82.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  18.4N LONM12 =  80.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
  LATM24 =  18.0N LONM24 =  79.0W
  WNDCUR =  130KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =  135KT
  CENPRS =  920MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  120NM RD34SW =  100NM RD34NW = 150NM

#6075 Postby **dhweather** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:46 pm

Ivan: Cat 4 by day, Cat 5 by night.

#6076 Postby **patsmsg** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:46 pm

Can you please expand on what information in the above post indicates he is in a strengthening phase? Other than a drop in pressure, I do know what to look for. Thanks.

HardCard · #6077 Postby **HardCard** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:46 pm

hmmm.. Then the landfall zone gets pelted by globs of pelleted raindrop... wonderful.

Sean in New Orleans · #6078 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:46 pm

Welcome to the board....we're not out of the woods, for sure. I'm a bit more concerned today than yesterday as the trend west is getting a little to close for comfort. Ivan is still a long ways away, so, all we can do is watch....Hopefully, we'll be in the clear before long.

#6079 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:47 pm

Couldn't have said it more succinctly myself, Canegrl04. :wink:

Anonymous · #6080 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:47 pm

But that guy das is going to have a heart attack.

Ivan Advisories

Staying Alert in NO

Ivan's trying to match.....

Ivan Better Turn Soon Or...

18:00 Tropical models=BAMM to Panama City

Who is online