Frances Advisories

[cycloneye]

and closer to 285 than 295 I think.

Luis...this could come closer than advertised...what are the mets in Pr saying tonight?

MW

Here in PR the mets are not hyping too much as of yet but a little more concerned because of the uncertainty of when it will bend west after it goes WNW.

[ericinmia]

This is not good news...
I know this is not definte however the NHC usually keeps their mouths shut until they are much more sure of somthing, thus the mentioning of this west-ward trend is proof they believe it has a great possibility of occuring!

This is a quote of the second paragraph of the discussion linked below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2031.shtml?

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. FRANCES HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A SHARP
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. IN FACT...THE LATEST UKMET RUN HAS SHIFTED
MUCH FARTHER WEST WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.
THOSE TWO MODELS...PLUS THE GFDL...HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON TOP OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN ONLY DIVERGE
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE 12Z TRACK AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT
AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...SO ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED IN THE 36-72H
TIME PERIOD. AFTERWARDS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN NOGAPS...
IS FORECASTING THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND
THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO BECOME STRONGLY ZONAL. WITH SUCH STRONG
WESTERLY HIGH-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED...A CORRESPONDING
RESPONSE SHOULD BE A STRENGTHENING OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
WESTWARD TO PERHAPS THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 120 HOURS. THAT PATTERN
SHOULD HELP TO TURN FRANCES MORE WESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS. AS SUCH
...THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

I have been wanting to purchase a Davis Pro weather station for many years now, and i have the funds currently available. With this storm possibly going to effect my region that would be an nice addition. IF a system did effect me, i could link you all to my website with the updated weather conditions on it, and i have enough battery backup to last through the average hurricane for a laptop... lets hope the internet stays connected!

-Eric

[Brent]

It's only moved .1 degree north since 5pm and .4 degress west, how is that anything more than a little north of west?

[Guest]

let me put that on my map........... and will let you know how it goes.....


hey easy way to see if wobbles or movement...

[cape_escape]

Well, I think I'm going water and battery shopping first thing in the morning! Just in case! I'm on the west side, but after seeng Charleys adventure across Florida, I want to be ready for anything!

[SouthernWx]

It's too early to know for sure exactly where or even if Frances will impact the U.S. coastline...but IMO it has the potential to become a very large and intense hurricane..

If I lived in southern Florida...or anywhere along the southeast U.S. coast, I'd closely monitor the progress of this potentially very dangerous hurricane. Frances is taking a track that many historic U.S. hurricanes of the past have taken (i.e.- Donna, Floyd, Andrew, Sept 1947, etc).

With much of the model guidance I've seen forecasting strong high pressure building over and just offshore the northeast U.S. coast in the 6 to 10 day time frame, that makes my concern even greater (of a turn westward into FL/ GA/ SC).

[Thunder44]

TPC is likely to be more conservative, unless something drastic changes with the storm between now and the next advisory. I don't think it will be raised to a Cat 2 at 11pm. I think 85 to 90mph.

[cinlfla]

Make sure you buy D batterys I live on the
East cost and when Charley was coming in the west side we ran out of D batterys over here on the East coast

[cape_escape]

Make sure you buy D batterys I live on the
East cost and when Charley was coming in the west side we ran out of D batterys over here on the East coast

Thanks for the heads up! I couldn't find a D battery anywhere three days before Charley hit!

[Nimbus]

You are probably seeing a wobble, its still a little early for a westward turn. If you look at a 24 hour IR loop you will see Frances is slowly gaining latitude.

Interesting feature in the longer loops almost looks like a ridge north of the islands starting to build east past 60W? This could mean an earlier turn towards the west if the trend continues. Does anyone else see this?

[HurricaneBill]

I'm thinking Frances, is mad because it is being retired for no reason. So its going to find a reason!

That's what I was afraid of before the season started. I was concerned that Frances would think "If I'm gonna get retired, might as well go out with a bang".

[obxhurricane]

If anything I see a slight northward bend over the last few frames.

[ncweatherwizard]

I'm sticking to my northerly track which has been farther right than basically everything. That 125kt figure at 120 hours is really dependent on where the vertical shear ends up positioned, so to speak. So 125kt is a rough median of the possible intensity at 120 hours.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[ericinmia]

Here is the NWS Outlook/long range forcast for miami, Fl...

It states much of the same about the high's movement over south fla. However its in more detail.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS AN WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
WESTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION...AND ALLOW FOR THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO
REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE THE
NIGHT TIME AND MORNING ACTIVITY EAST COAST...AND AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTERIOR AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK DOWN TO AROUND THE KEYS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAN STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW
TO A SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT BACK INTO THE CWA. SO PLAN ON
INCREASING POPS A LITTLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE CWA...BUT
KEEPING THEM IN THE HIGH SCATTERED CAT.

THE FRONT AND THE THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN BY MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK INTO A SUMMER TIME PATTERN
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK..AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES EAST
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING.

-Eric

[dixiebreeze]

75:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Derek Ortt]

may use some new models with tomorrow morning's forecast as well

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

[Wnghs2007]

Ok Stupid Question but I wanted to see what yalls opion would be.

[btsgmdad]

My first post

While I am new to the board I have been following these mighty storms from afar for 15 years. I remember watching Hugo and Andrew and this storm appears to be on similar course. Let's just pray that it doesn't equal their strength.

[Brent]

YIKES!!!!!!

[Guest]

definitly yes.