Ivan Advisories

[rtd2]

How much longer will it be before Fidel won't let us do recon?"






USAF flew Recon in Charley...guess Cubas getting a little wiser

[air360]

not north of tampa at all...wow...i really dont have my own forecast opinion to give...but not north of tampa? thats going against what EVERYONE is saying..lol
i know your just giving opinion..thanks! ...im just messing with ya:) good post

[canegrl04]

I have a feeling by the time Ivan makes landfall,he will have made millions of people along the Gulf coast evacuate

[Us 2 cajuns]

That's not quite how I heard it. The mayor said for everyone to be prepared....get bread, water, etc. An early comment made by the reporter was that it would take 72 hrs to evacuate. No one (at the present time) has said anything about evacuating the area starting tomorrow.

[gkrangers]

THAT would hurt lol.

Would do a number on the WC-130 too...

Now with one eyewall and those characteristics...it should contract and strengthen.

One thing to note, that wind reading is 3 hours old.

[mobilebay]

I just wonder will they use the correct UKMET this time? i"m sorry but Stewert goofed bigtime.

[rtd2]

Guess the hype shifts west too!

[goodlife]

they're not done with the forecast...tune in to fox8 right now...they are going to talk about the storm again...let's see what they have to say.
I can't imagine them calling for evacs yet.

[calidoug]

Pressures are likely to fall over the next several hours as the single eyewall contracts.

[lilbump3000]

Us 2 cajuns if you hear the major say that, then u just miss the jefferson parish man say the thing about the evacation, he said it about a 2 mins before they showed what the mayor had said.

[Anonymous]

A hurricane coming SE to NW would be the absolute worse,

2nd would be a storm coming from the SW to NE.

However, a major storm, would be catastrophic in any case, simply becuase of the loss of our wetlands (marsh), which use to give the rising waters some resistance.

As recent as ten years ago, there were 50 miles of wetlands between the northern edge of the marsh, to downtown New Orleans. Now, it is only 20 miles. Huge difference, thus the big concern.

In a nutshell. New Orleans now has very little protection, besides our levee protection system, which is designed for up to cat. 3 storms, with a max. height of 17 feet of levee protection. Even a cat. 3, moving at a slow speed (under 10 mph) would be devestating. Add whatever rain a storm may produce, and it's bad news.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

If I was in Montegut, I would have a plan to get as many of my possessions out of there if need be...Montegut will be way under water if this storm threatens our area. Just have a plan, IMO...but, don't get too worried just yet.

I'm packed & ready!

[Derek Ortt]

yes, the reduction should be lowered from 90% to about 85%

[KYAGoodbye]

We need 72 hours to get out of NO. Landfall is at Thurs am at the latest. If it goes elsewhere, great. The risk is too great to take a chance. A current forecast of Biloxi is too close for comfort, given the acknowleged difficulties in a perfect prediction. Just my opinion, but I am leaving tomorrow.

[Anonymous]

They also said, if Ivan comes out over the NE tip of the Yucatan, that is bad news for New Orleans. If it comes out over the western tip of Cuba, we still should be o.k.

By morning, it will all be coming together, one way or another.

[rtd2]

While the models are comming left and are all in my Original track of N.O. to P'coala This 5day talk is badf cause it gets people stressed out...local mets 2 days ago saying IVANS no problem now this! 5 day forecast are junk!

[HurryKane]

they're not done with the forecast...tune in to fox8 right now...they are going to talk about the storm again...let's see what they have to say.
I can't imagine them calling for evacs yet.

If we watched the same thing, then that Jeff guy called out the NHC on their track-west-ness. Flat out said he didn't put a lot of faith in the NHC forecast and then showed how it compared with model runs.

That seemed a little irresponsible to me, maybe not though.

[Us 2 cajuns]

Jefferson Parish and Orleans Parish are two very different parishes. Although they touch...remember that Jefferson includes Grand Isle and many places outside the hurricane protection levees with roads that will flood from the high tides. It's yet to be seen. As per Jeff Basken - "What to do"- Evlauate plan, accumulate basic suppies. Lower Plaquemines / Grand Isle - be prepared to evaucate if it is ordered... may be tomorrow night or early Tuesday."

[dixiebreeze]

'Official' Unofficial Storm Path Projections: Overnight runs on Saturday of NHC's experimental computer forecast models -- known colloquially as "spaghetti models" -- show little change from Saturday night. They are close to agreeing on landfall somewhere in the central Florida panhandle. Other experimental models shift the landfall point somewhat nearer Pensacola. Derek Ortt of the Northwest Hemisphere Hurricane Center has long predicted in news interviews a landfall squarely at Pensacola and late Saturday night he reaffirmed that guidance. By Sunday morning, Dr. William Gray twice again upped his probability calculations that Ivan will hit near Pensacola. Also Sunday, the Navy Meteorological Research experts moved farther westward their projections of likely landfall to the Panama City area. The Florida State University experimental animated storm path projection was not yet updated early Sunday at this writing, but it continues to show Ivan heading further west in the Gulf, almost due south of Mobile or even New Orleans. All predictions are subject to wide error, of course. They are, after all, only predictions. Check the graphics and links below for official updates throughout Sunday.

[skysummit]

So many people left for Georges and the storm turned at the last minute. I just hope people do no take Ivan for granted and listen to the evacuations this time around if they are needed. We are looking at possible 400 miles of land being effected.