Ivan Advisories

[Sean in New Orleans]

That means that they don't know where it will make landfall, but, they guess the highest chance of the eye making landfall of any place along the coast would be Buras, Louisiana....this is crazy!!! This storm is too hard to predict!!

[STORMSURGE]

IVAN knows!

[dennis1x1]

not speaking of outflow...speaking of the core....on sat it does not look like a cat 5, plain and simple!!

-50 in the eye? wow.....again..would never believe a cat 5 lurks under there


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-828W.jpg

[Anonymous]

Within 72hrs., and Buras being the closest. That is correct Sean.

[calidoug]

That's just because the inner eyewall collapsed. It takes a little while for the larger eye to clear out.

[dennis1x1]

yes...i know..but again...typically a cat 5 storm has that cleared out already.....this isnt a typical storm obviously.....as even at its non-ideal stage, cat 5 is maintained.


as for the black spots.....cold cloudtops.....colors get darker as tops get colder....black area nearing -80C

[zoeyann]

Really what he said for Grand Isle was that they should finalize their plans because tommorrow night or Tuesday would be decision time. Very prudent considering there is only one way one and it floods very easily. I'm in a first stage evacuation area and I will prepare tommorrow.

[recmod]

Interesting that no part of the FLorida peninsula is even listed in the poll. I guess the person who created the poll gives a 0% possibility to a NE turn toward FL????????

[Guest]

What are those black areas in the hurricane ??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Intense thuderstorms

[Ixolib]

As recent as ten years ago, there were 50 miles of wetlands between the northern edge of the marsh, to downtown New Orleans. Now, it is only 20 miles. Huge difference, thus the big concern.

You nailed it EZ. The loss of the marsh is the single most important factor you face in a major hurricane. Unreal that 30 miles has been lost forever in only ten years. What if a Betsy would have come in now, instead of 1965??????

[STORMSURGE]

Ivan is the biggest boy in the tub right now and is gonna splash the water any which way he wants.

[Ivanova]

as for the black spots.....cold cloudtops.....
colors get darker as tops get colder....black area nearing -80C

Thanks for the info... how does this affect the hurricane ??

[LSU2001]

Guaniguanico, Cordillera de
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Cordillera de Guaniguanico

low range of hills in Pinar del Río province, western Cuba. It extends about 40 mi (64 km) northeast from Mantua and comprises the Sierra de los Órganos and the Sierra del Rosario, which rises 2,293 ft (699 m) at El Pan de Guajaibón. The Sierra del Rosario exhibits a multitude of knolls formed of different rock materials, whereas steep limestone cones tower in the Sierra de los Órganos. Extensive…

[hesperhys]

if what he said about the models were true i guess id agree with him...but its not...the nhc track is tightly clustered around both the ukmet and gfdl...the 2 most respected tropical models that are used. ONE run of the NOGAPS has shifted to new orleans.....until the other 2 show a shift...or at least multiple runs of the NOGAPS keeps the shift..it would be irresponsible to move the NHC track much from where it is...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Actually, the CMC has been pointing towards New Orleans since yesterday... and this model has been ahead of the other major global models for the last several days in the BIG trend westward that the others have followed (e.g. NOGAPS, which you mention above, has been trending westward since at least Wednesday)...

[chakalakasp]

All I can say is: whoever it was in here that predicted that this year's Big Storm would be Ivan...

GOOD CALL!

[logybogy]

[BigO]

Either way...W, E or direct hit to NOLA and I am losing my camp house.

http:www.neworleanscamps.com

My website...shows the house and its position relative to the Pontchartrain shoreline.

It has been a wonderful place of peace, repose and a place to teach my kids how to fish and swim. If the forecast is to be believed, its days may well be numbered.

[chakalakasp]

The next VORTEX should be spectacular. We'll let Yoda make the announcement

[MGC]

If Ivan hits NO as a Cat 4 it really won't matter which direction the hit is from. Most likely track would be one simular to Isadore in 2002. Recall the flooding Isadore caused? Isadore was only a TS so perhaps double or triple the flood potential.....NOT GOOD......MGC

[dhweather]

Ivan - I think there's no doubt this name will be retired.