Charley Advisories

[WXBUFFJIM]

I've been looking at numerous model runs this morning and we could get absolutely soaked Thursday night into Friday from DC and Baltimore north and west. But that's just part 1 and I'm looking at 2-4 inches of rain with that event with locally higher amounts to our west where orographic lift enhances the rainfall from Bonnie. That's just part 1.

Part 2 comes in Saturday night into Sunday according to the latest guidance with Charley, which could be just as bad as it's predecessor Bonnie with amounts of 2-5" possible. That means we could potentially see rain totals between now and Sunday of 4-9 inches with locally higher amounts. This does not include the storms of this afternoon by the way. A very interesting forecast and we need to monitor this potentially dangerous situation, especially over the mountains just west of DC and Baltimore where significant flash flooding is a possibility.

Jim Schuyler

[rainstorm]

very true. just west of I95 could see flooding, only alleviated by fast movement

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

Okay, so what's that mean for us folks in the Hampton Roads/Tidewater area (SE VA)?? The tracks are to our west but Charley could be right on top of us then.

And ideas gang?

[rainstorm]

depends. gusty south winds, but WITH THE FRONT STALLED the heavy rain and wind will be to the west of the front, like floyd.

[Blown Away]

If Charlie slows could it make the turn and skirt east of
Florida peninsula. Local meteorologist suggested it
may be a possibility??

[Derek Ortt]

not sure what met that was (or if it was even a met, maybe someone playing a met on TV siad it. No guidance has this missing to the east

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

which means to the west of SE VA is what you're saying then. So, rain might not be that big of a deal in, let's say, Norfolk or Virginia Beach?

[The Dark Knight]

I agree.... All odles and forecasts have Charley hitting East Florida then going up the east coast....

[Patrick99]

Yet Florida, being the skinny peninsula that it is, it really wouldn't take much of a jog at all for it to change the angle and come in further east. Remember Irene? Everyone was screaming Tampa until they became hoarse.

[Three Blind Mice]

I thought last nights UKmet had it a near miss to the east,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 8a


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on August 11, 2004



...Charley approaching Jamaica...hurricane hunter plane should be in
the center shortly...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. Additional watches will likely be required for
portions of the Florida peninsula later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwest
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward
including Port-au-Prince.

Tropical storm and/or hurricane warnings will be required for
portions of Cuba later today.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
located near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 75.4 west or about
115 miles... 185 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph
...39 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours...followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Charley could become a hurricane during the next day or
so.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica today...and the
Cayman Islands tonight.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...16.9 N... 75.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 24 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 999 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch


Later today hurricane watches will be required for the Floridas west coast.All those who live in the west coast of Florida begin preparations today and dont leave them to the last minute.

[Derek Ortt]

There have been unconfirmed rumors from a local TV station that watches may also be issued for parts of the ECof Florida

[jlauderdal]

If Charlie slows could it make the turn and skirt east of
Florida peninsula. Local meteorologist suggested it
may be a possibility??

Here we go again with local media. Who said it could miss to the east? Name and station please?

[Brent]

There have been unconfirmed rumors from a local TV station that watches may also be issued for parts of the ECof Florida

That's certainly possible. I was surprised to see watches already up, then I saw the projected path. Sheesh, slow down Charley.

[BonesXL]

I heard through the local TV stations in Miami that some watches maybe issued later today for some south areas of Miami-Dade. There waiting for recon reports to come in.

[Three Blind Mice]

Heres the UKmet...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

[chadtm80]

There have been unconfirmed rumors from a local TV station that watches may also be issued for parts of the ECof Florida

Isnt that normal? If a cat 2 hits Tampa, The east coast would at least need Tropical storm warnings no?

[weatherlover427]

Wouldn't it depend on how fast the storm crosses the peninsula?

[Derek Ortt]

prehaps.

Remember everyone, there has been nothing official yet. The idea of a watch for mainland Florida should be treated as merely a rumor at the present time

[Brent]

The NHC DOES say at 8am that additional watches may be required later today:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

It doesn't say west or east though, my guess is both.