Alex Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

recon better report a slightly higher pressure or this needs an east wobble and yesterday or else this may get bad

[caneman]

Joe B. is going to have a field day with this as he did have it coming more West than NHC did.

[wx247]

Joe B. is going to have a field day with this as he did have it coming more West than NHC did.

Oh just what we need... to inflate his ego.

[Derek Ortt]

a brush means little impact, a hit means disaster. Only a few miles makes the difference

[caneman]

Yeah, I know but did see his post yesterday and he was livid at NHC,of course what is new with that. He was sure though that the track would be further West than NHc had it .

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 031210
A. HURRICANE ALEX (ONE)
B. 03/1131Z (50)
C. 33.9N/5
D. 76.8W/1
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HR -03/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/PBO TGHTLY CURVED BND/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.15 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. FT BASED ON DT, PT AND MET SUPPORTS.

AODT: NOT AVAILABLE

ARCHULETTA

[Brent]

a brush means little impact, a hit means disaster. Only a few miles makes the difference

I think it's going to be somewhere in the middle. Radar shows VERY intense rainbands moving onshore between Morehead City and Ocracoke Inlet and that will shift NE as the system moves. Any movement to the left will bring the eye onshore near Hatteras.

[ncbird]

Out Skirts of New Bern, NC raining lightly with occasional down pours.

My 9am weaterstation readings:
Wind: North 37 mph
Highest gust 8:54: 37 mph

[ncweatherwizard]

Either way, Hatteras is sparsely populated (separated from the northern Outer Banks by Pea Island N.W.R.);if you've never been down there, it's the middle of nowhere...with the exception of a few small villages...and these people definitely know how to handle this stuff.

[Derek Ortt]

I've been there. Hatteras and Buxton do have good sized populations

[Wnghs2007]

URNT12 KNHC 031258
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1258Z
B. 34 DEG 23 MIN N
76 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2856 M
D. 75 KT
E. 208 DEG 018 NM
F. 305 DEG 72 KT
G. 211 DEG 019 NM
H. 973 MB
I. 11 C/ 3126 M
J. 19 C/ 3121 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF966 0801A ALEX OB 12
MAX FL WIND 105 KT SE QUAD 1135Z


I KNOW I KNOW POST IT IN THAT THREAD. AND I WILL but I thought I would show that pressure has dropped another mb

[Carolina_survivor]

Thanks so much for that update.

A friend's daughter is in Ocracoke and was sleeping in at 8:30 a.m., barely aware that she even needed to be on alert. I passed on your update. Too late I'm sure for ferry service to be running but at least she can hunker down and prepare for more than just a windy rain event, as had been suggested by many of our local weather stations.

I live in Williamston, work in Greenville so hurricanes are not new to us (been through Isabel, Fran, Bertha, Bonnie... you know the names I'm sure, I'm forgetting a couple others). Yes, folks around here and in the Outer Banks are used to storms, but they're also used to having a week or so to prepare, stock up on food, and board up their homes.

Our local weather folks are so afraid of being alarmists that they may have underestimated this one. Here's hoping that's not the case.

[Wnghs2007]

Looking at latest Radar I am Concerned that the eye wall may pass thru the sound between mainland NC and Cape Hatterus. Or it might just pass over hatteras. I hope I am wrong but that is the way that it looks to me. And I am looping the radar.

[Derek Ortt]

ferry service is closed.

Latest recon showed a slightly lower pressure. Not sure if NHC will officially make this a cat 2, but recon winds indicate that this is a no brainer cat 2 (lower FL winds during Izzy and it was called a cat 2 with those winds not even reaching the surface)

[ncweatherwizard]

Any error could bring the west side of this eye onshore, with the forecast path this has, it will not--assuming the eye diameter remains constant. Worst conditions will be felt right around and north of the cape.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /alex.html

[Derek Ortt]

I've stated this is another thread, but should be repeated here.

The eye wall is just offshore. The slightest of wobbles will bring sustained cat 1 conditions inland. Any significant wobble brings the worst of the weather (greatest chance of that is on Hatteras, this portion will likely miss Ocracoke, though gusts over 90 m.p.h. may occur)

[GaryOBX]

Ferry service IS running between Ocracoke and Hatteras Island... FYI

Bulletin Number: 3
Date/Time: 8/3/04 7:36:13 AM

Bulletin Text: Ferry operations between Hatteras and Ocracoke are running on a regular schedule. Ferry operations have been suspended for Ocracoke/Cedar Island and Ocracoke/Swan Quarter.

[Stormchaser16]

Luckily for Hatteras though, the more likely wobble would be one more to the east instead of W.... Of course thats just given the steering pattern for the system, any growth in the eyewall and I am afraid Hatteras could be fubar'd..... (can i say fubard?)

[Derek Ortt]

That is some good news. I must have heard Ocracoke to the mianland 9which makes sense as thats a 2.5 hour ferry compared to the 40 minute ocracoke to hatteras ferry.

Now to the bad news, looking at the latest radar, it looks as it the eye wall will not clear Hatteras

[ncweatherwizard]

Short range loop out of Newport:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmhx.shtml

NW quadrant of this may be deepening...perhaps this is the one time that the "wrong" quadrant is the strongest, because it is certainly not the northeast quadrant--it's the one facing the shore.

But I believe that the strongest winds are tucked in there close to the eye.

And I'd like to think that maybe the radar is depicting some filling of the eye...but that's won't affect the eyewall immediately.