Charley Advisories

[rtd2]

That forecast is reasonable in chance.... It might get you in trouble with the doomsday post made for sfla up to tampa earlier

[Derek Ortt]

the graphics are available on the home page.

It should be noted that the direct landfall is in CENTRAL Florida, and not South Florida

[goodlife]

ok......I hope this line of that forecast doesn't happen!!

A scenario that is not reflected in this forecast is for the trough to miss Charley and follow a track indicated by the BAM models, keeping the system in the Gulf of Mexico for a long time.

[Derek Ortt]

those models do have the correct position

[Guest]

suing the 48 hr ETA Model at 500 MB... for a view of the OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND NOT HURICANE TRACK FORECASTING...

we see the ridge off the SE coast with a 594 DM CORE value well east of JAX near 30 N and 70 west... see that 594 black line contuor?

then we see the trough AXIS running along N to S from Chicago to New Orelans... or aling 90 W LONG....

This tells me that Charley cannot make it any further west of 90 Long.

Thus the key is the PERIPHERY of the SE RIDGE... and how Charley passes along this feature. Right now I cannot see anything more than a Glancing pass over FAR western Cuba

[The Dark Knight]

Oh boy.... That's not good...... The GOM waters are very warm... If Charley does miss the trough then, well it won't be good......

[tracyswfla]

This is getting confusing.

[Guest]

That is simply outstanding post Derecho.... This 12 hr model faliure has HUGE implication for the ARC of the turn coming up later...

The recon position is quite a bit south of what the center was thought to be.

Causes BAMD to DRASTICALLY shift westwards, with a track heading towards the Central FL Panhandle........

[robag]

If I were you I would start to make some preparation for securing your property at MM98. My family has a house on the bay at MM 98 and we need to make sure the boat is secure on the davits. I live at MM104 oceanside about one block from the ocean. The local statements are beginning to sound more ominous for the lower Keys as of now. However, I realize that any little jog could bring the storm over Key Largo especially since we would be in the right front quadrant. I will keep you posted.

[goodlife]

I just posted this in another thread...but I read this line in that latest forecast that someone posted..

A scenario that is not reflected in this forecast is for the trough to miss Charley and follow a track indicated by the BAM models, keeping the system in the Gulf of Mexico for a long time.

[The Dark Knight]

LOL..... That's weather forecasting for ya...!!!

[Stormchaser16]

Good post DT, and great continued analysis as usual....

I totally agree that with the trough axis running to New Orleans, Charley cant make it any further wst then that, although what should happen is Charley gets close to that then slowly turns back towards the northern Fl peninsula OR north/west of there......correct?

Because like you said it will take longer to turn the system because of its forward accelearation

[CaptinCrunch]

1500 UTC 8/11/2004 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST #6

This is an independent product

Recon has just reported some important information. The first piece is that the cloud covered eye is south of the 8 A.M. update position. The second is that the storm is almost a hurricane and may be called one at the 11 A.M. update. However, at 1200 UTC, the available data suggests that Charley remains a tropical storm with 60KT winds, based upon 76KT at 850mb from recon.

The track guidance is starting to come into good agreement now with an ultimate landfall on the west coast of Florida somewhere between Ft Myers and Tampa. The reason for this is that the trough that is currently capturing Tropical Storm Bonnie in the Gulf of Mexico is also expected to capture Charley. WV imagery shows weak SW flow in the GOM. Therefore, this forecast needs to be adjusted slightly to the right of the previous one. Also, guidance now indicates that the storm will accelerate as it moves into the Gulf and remain offshore and make another landfall in the Carolinas. This is now reflected in the forecast. The initial time periods are slower due to the fact that Charley has slowed its forward speed, as has been long expected.

Charley should become a hurricane at anytime. Guidance is in good agreement now for at least a category 2 hurricane at landfall. There is still some shear due to that upper low to the west, which should prevent any rapid intensification. However, with the center being farther south, the interaction with Jamaica will be reduced, allowing for the storm to continue intensifying. For now, I will stick to a 95KT landfall, but increase the landfall intensity at Cuba. The reason I have not went with a major hurricane at landfall in Florida is because of the potential of some increasing shear over the system once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

A scenario that is not reflected in this forecast is for the trough to miss Charley and follow a track indicated by the BAM models, keeping the system in the Gulf of Mexico for a long time

[Derek Ortt]

its confusing thanks to the 12Z tropical mdoel runs. Still believe that this will hit the WC of Florida though

[Stormchaser16]

Derek.... at 72 hours I think you mena over land???? As you say over water, but weakened it about 30 kts

[Josephine96]

I am a concerned and getting hyped Central Floridian here.

They say hurricane force winds are a real possibility here even though I'm well inland.. This is exciting but kinda scary also

[Derek Ortt]

No,

the 72 hour position is once again over water. It crosses Florida during that time. if it were inland, it would be at 25KT.

See the graphic on the home page. This track has another landfall near Cape Fear, North Carolina

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmm.... Interesting topic....

[goodlife]

DT, your scaring me. A Cat 3 hurricane moving at 15-20 mph will bring me hurricane force winds. It did in 1995 with Opal. I can do without that. Mobile/Pensacola/Destin landfall with the system moving NE would take it very close to me.

at least you'll be on the dry side of the storm...

[Stormchaser16]

The track guidance is doing anything BUT coming into agreement now on the forecast landfall area