Ivan Advisories

yoda · #41 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:47 pm

Interesting forecast... thanks man.

#42 Postby **abajan** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:52 pm

So you're saying that we're looking at a possible major hurricane (100 kts = 115 mph) passing through the Windward Islands in a few days time?

I doubt that very much but then again you could be right. These systems can be quite unpredictable.

#43 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:56 pm

It seems like if she takes the same route as Frances, maybe the stirred up water will not let Ivan get as strong as she possibly could. After having a Cat 4 storm over an area of water for so long, I'm sure the water temperature has to drop some!

Derek Ortt · #44 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:58 pm

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

and this hurricane season from hell just keeps on going

mf_dolphin · #45 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:00 pm

The official track i saw had it tracking a long way south of Frances's path. It looks like it will come through the n central islands. Right now it's forecast to be a CAT 1 at that point in time.

#46 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:02 pm

This one will be the big one for the islands in 2004 hopefully not another major.

AussieMark · #47 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:06 pm

the Islands last had a Major strike from the East in

1998 (Georges)

calidoug · #48 Postby **calidoug** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:07 pm

Let me guess-- in the extended, you have it going to the Carolinas...

yoda · #49 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:11 pm

Come on now.. be nice!

Website · #50 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:37 pm

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on September 02, 2004

...Tropical depression moving westward in the far eastern tropical
Atlantic...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Nine was re-located near latitude 9.8 north... longitude
29.4 west or about 560 miles... 905 km... southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph
...26 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm on
Friday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position... 9.8 N... 29.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 16 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 02, 2004

while I am not crazy about relocating a tropical cyclone at
night...an SSMI pass near 23z suggests that the center of the
depression is farther east than previously thought...near the
northeast edge of the deep convection. Analyses from CIMSS show
about 15 kt of northeasterly shear over the depression...consistent
with this positioning of the center. The depression has been
maintaining a Ball of very cold convection for the last several
hours...and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00z
were 30 kt. However...these estimates were based on positions more
embedded in the convection...and so I am inclined to keep the
initial intensity at 25 kt.

With the relocation of the center...the initial motion is now
estimated to be 270/12. The depression is embedded in a deep
easterly flow south of the subtropical ridge...which is forecast to
be maintained throughout the forecast period. There is good
agreement among the GFDL...UKMET...and GFS models on a brisk
westward motion which has been followed closely for this advisory.
The NOGAPS is considerably slower than the rest of the guidance...
but appears to be having trouble consolidating a circulation during
the first couple days of the integration...and has been discounted.
The official forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory
as a result of the relocation and change in the initial motion.

The GFDL has unbridled enthusiasm for this system...taking the
depression to category four status in about three days. Both the
GFS and UKMET suggest that the easterly shear will be slow to
diminish as the depression remains on the south side of an
upper-level anticyclone. Steady strengthening will be
forecast...but more in line with the SHIPS model guidance.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/0300z 9.8n 29.4w 25 kt
12hr VT 03/1200z 9.9n 31.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 04/0000z 10.1n 34.7w 45 kt
36hr VT 04/1200z 10.4n 38.0w 50 kt
48hr VT 05/0000z 10.8n 41.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 06/0000z 11.5n 47.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 07/0000z 12.5n 53.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 08/0000z 14.0n 59.5w 80 kt

#51 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:43 pm

abajan wrote:So you're saying that we're looking at a possible major hurricane (100 kts = 115 mph) passing through the Windward Islands in a few days time?

I doubt that very much but then again you could be right. These systems can be quite unpredictable.

I know what you're saying...to be honest it didn't even "feel" right to predict that much intensification--but for now, I'll let it sit there--and we'll see what happens I guess.

#52 Postby **WeatherNole** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:46 am

TD9 (TS Ivan?) is gonna be next in line??

It's almost comical at this point.
Take a look in the Gulf.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_276s.gif

Thankfully, this is day 11 in the GFS 0Z run. Odds are in my favor for it being a complete bust. If not, it still gives me plenty of time to recover in the mental ward.

Mike

--
(Edited because of wrong link. Sorry 'bout that.)

yoda · #53 Postby **yoda** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:49 am

WeatherNole wrote:TD9 (TS Ivan?) is gonna be next in line??

It's almost comical at this point.
Take a look in the Gulf.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_276s.gif

Thankfully, this is day 11 in the GFS 0Z run. Odds are in my favor for it being a complete bust. If not, it still gives me plenty of time to recover in the mental ward.

Mike

--
(Edited because of wrong link. Sorry 'bout that.)

LOL!!! Hey, what's up with the big changes in the 0z models? Is the trough coming out of the GOM, or is the ridge weakening?

bahamaswx · #54 Postby **bahamaswx** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:50 am

Looks like the panhandle is safe. Then again, if it does landfall near the panhandle by dumb-luck, I'll remember GFS called it 11 days out.

Matthew5 · #55 Postby **Matthew5** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:30 am

03/0600 UTC 9.6N 29.8W T2.5/2.5 09

Say hello to Mr.Ivan!

yoda · #56 Postby **yoda** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 am

Hello!

southerngale · #57 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:37 am

Ivan the Terrible?

chakalakasp · #58 Postby **chakalakasp** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:41 am

bahamaswx wrote:Looks like the panhandle is safe. Then again, if it does landfall near the panhandle by dumb-luck, I'll remember GFS called it 11 days out.

At which point it will be officially renamed "OMFGFS"

Derecho · #59 Postby **Derecho** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:01 am

One agency with a 2.5 doesn't guarantee "Ivan." It's one of three agencies that NHC looks at for Dvorak numbers.

Microwave data indicated the circ wasn't under the deep convection, as mentioned in the 11PM discussion; it looks a bit better on satellite than it actually is.

The real key to an upgrade will be the morning QS pass...if it doesn't miss TD9.

Matthew5 · #60 Postby **Matthew5** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:15 am

On the Nrl site right now!!!

Ivan Advisories

td 9 forecast... hurricane for the windwards

11pm TD 9

Aw, what the heck. Guess where Ivan's goin'?

Re: Aw, what the heck. Guess where Ivan's goin'?

2.5/2.5 say hello to Ivan!

Ivan forms!

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