Ivan Advisories
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current synoptic bad for New Orleans...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
Notice the gap between the two highs...
That is the "shortwave trough" breaking down the ridge between the texan and bermuda high. Watch this pattern, if that trough digs deaper, or those highs weaken, we could see an accelerated turn northward. If that trough does not dig deep enough, or it backs out, and the ridge rebuilds... then there is no worry about this becoming a north gom event. It will be pushed west into mexico.
-Eric
Notice the gap between the two highs...
That is the "shortwave trough" breaking down the ridge between the texan and bermuda high. Watch this pattern, if that trough digs deaper, or those highs weaken, we could see an accelerated turn northward. If that trough does not dig deep enough, or it backs out, and the ridge rebuilds... then there is no worry about this becoming a north gom event. It will be pushed west into mexico.
-Eric
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Ivanova wrote:Looks like Ivan is being fed from the Pacific*
I've been watching this too. Check out this thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44499
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Possum Trot wrote:Ivanova wrote:Looks like Ivan is being fed from the Pacific*
I've been watching this too. Check out this thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44499
Possum... you remember our old friend, Forecaster Gomez ??
Here was his prediction [but alas, as you pointed out... his
original topic has been deleted ]
posted 9-8-04
"HURRICANE ALERT (HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 7-DAYS):
GULF COAST FROM GALVESTON, TEXAS TO KEY WEST, FLORIDA;
ATLANTIC COAST FROM KEY WEST, FLORIDA TO MELBOURNE, FLORIDA."
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Question: How in the world can he be a Cat. 5 when he just did an EWRC, and is just now forming a rather ragged visible eye? He looks like a weak Cat. 4 to me. So, if he is this strong now, when his eye clears out and we can once again see the ocean through his eye, is he gonna be like Gilbert's strength?
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On it's current track wouldn't landfall be around...
Port Aransas,TX... i am just a lowly amatuer...but my husband and I have both agreed that so far none of the experts have been able to predict this monster. I do not by no means want to underestimate the pros at this but i have been watching on here for several days now and have not seen this turn north as of yet.... if someone with more knowledge can tell me what I'm not seeing then please do.
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WinterStormLover18 wrote:Question: How in the world can he be a Cat. 5 when he just did an EWRC, and is just now forming a rather ragged visible eye? He looks like a weak Cat. 4 to me. So, if he is this strong now, when his eye clears out and we can once again see the ocean through his eye, is he gonna be like Gilbert's strength?
I've been wondering the same thing. Does anyone know when we get another Recon Vortex. I'm wondering just how powerful he is at the moment.
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Well as all will see here pretty much what i have expected has happend. My thinking still hasnt changed because i see no reason to. Which more or less those in MS, se LA, AL and the western FL Panhandle better start really paying attention to what this Major Hurricane is doing because she is destined for someone in the areas i mentioned. I am more ceoncerned now though (narrowing it down some) for those in MS, AL and western FL panhandle (towards AL line) and even as far west as extreme se LA. I will have a more detailed update later this evening!
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- Tropical Storm
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- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 187
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:33 pm
- Location: Ozarks Bioregion, Missouri, USA
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- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 187
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:33 pm
- Location: Ozarks Bioregion, Missouri, USA
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- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 187
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 3:33 pm
- Location: Ozarks Bioregion, Missouri, USA
5AM Discussion: Ivan currently experiencing 20kt shear
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html
The SHIPS model shows
close to 20 kt of westerly shear affecting Ivan but relaxes this
shear a bit at 24 and 36 hours before increasing it significantly.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual weakening after 12
hours but Ivan could still be a formidable hurricane when it
reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.
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