Earl Advisories
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Earl looks HORRIBLE tonight. Chance of recovery...5.7%.
Not much left out there in the Caribbean. Glad to see it...redevelopment would have wrecked my right of track verification stats.
The score...GFS 1, MW 0.
MW
Not much left out there in the Caribbean. Glad to see it...redevelopment would have wrecked my right of track verification stats.
The score...GFS 1, MW 0.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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Nimbus wrote:This morning the high over Florida is still there and the ULL that was over Central America has rolled west not south so there is very little steering to send a piece of Earls remnants north.
I disagree. There is a subtle upper low over the western Caribbean, just east of Belize and just west of "Earl". Look at the NHC's water vapor loop and it's pretty easy to see the counterclockwise flow that is responsible for slowing the storm. It should steer it far enough to the northwest to keep most of the convection away from Central America. Although the 6 am discussion says Earl's remnants are still moving quickly, it seems that they have slowed tremendously in the past couple of hours as they approach the upper low. I'm still not saying my above scenario will happen, I'm just saying that is the only way it would affect the US and I think it remains a viable option by the weekend.
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- GrimReaper
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GrimReaper wrote::grr: DIE EARL!!! I want Earl to die, no wishcasting can resurrect him, now. We in Florida are sick of hurricanes. Thanks for all the great forecasting, and continue to advise on potential threats.
Even if Earl is redevelops, it's not coming to Florida. So you have nothing to worry about.
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Earl will be in China by Friday, don't see him influencing anything for anybody. Looks like the tropics are going quiet for a few days.
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I guess...
Dean4Storms wrote:Earl will be in China by Friday, don't see him influencing anything for anybody. Looks like the tropics are going quiet for a few days.
I guess you haven't looked at the BOC this morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Re: I guess...
Stormcenter wrote:I guess you haven't looked at the BOC this morning.
Given that a TC forms in the BOC approximately once every 4 years, one of these days I'll have to use the search function to figure out the actual ratio of "Oooh, look, a cloud in the BOC, let's watch it develop!" posts to the actual number of BOC developments
![Smile :-)](./images/smilies/icon_smile.gif)
Surface pressures there are high, and there's no west wind at Campeche.
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Re: I guess...
Derecho wrote:Given that a TC forms in the BOC approximately once every 4 years, one of these days I'll have to use the search function to figure out the actual ratio of "Oooh, look, a cloud in the BOC, let's watch it develop!" posts to the actual number of BOC developments
Surface pressures there are high, and there's no west wind at Campeche.
I haven't looked at long term statistics, but storms have formed in the BOC 6 of the last 9 years (95, 96, 98, 99, 00, 03), so that is hardly 1 every 4 years. Surface pressures in Mexico are high, but there is hint of cyclonic rotation based on 4 reports on each side of the bay/gulf.
There is also plenty of sustained convection along the old front, which is basically all you need given warm water and light shear.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_mex.html
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Re: I guess...
Derecho wrote:Stormcenter wrote:I guess you haven't looked at the BOC this morning.
Given that a TC forms in the BOC approximately once every 4 years, one of these days I'll have to use the search function to figure out the actual ratio of "Oooh, look, a cloud in the BOC, let's watch it develop!" posts to the actual number of BOC developments
Surface pressures there are high, and there's no west wind at Campeche.
Derecho one day I will be right and something will form.
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_smile.gif)
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upper flow clearly seen in water vapor is west then goes sw to ne like it has practically the last month, and its there again today, only diff. is its moved from over the weekend to the western gulf as the bermuda ridge axis has poked in over s. fla again. So regardless whether t-showers are there now, or remanants from earl happen to get up in that area, I don't see flow from there going anywhere from there except north and then ne.
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