Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on July 26, 2004
Visible satellite images show that the tropical disturbance well to the south of Cabo San Lucas has a reasonably well-defined low-level circulation...and deep convective banding is also becoming more evident over the western portion of the system. Thus advisories are being initiated at this time. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters and both water vapor imagery and global model guidance indicate that the vertical shear will remain low.
Strengthening is forecast in close agreement with ships.
Because the center is not yet well defined...there is a fair amount of scatter in location estimates. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/11...which is close to the climatological mean for The Basin. The track forecast assumes that a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone will dominate the steering. The NHC track is fairly close to that shown by the NCEP GFS model.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/2100z 12.5n 114.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 12.9n 116.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 13.5n 118.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 14.0n 120.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 14.5n 122.6w 50 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 15.0n 126.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 15.5n 130.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 31/1800z 16.0n 133.5w 60 kt
