Hurricane Claudette-Texas landfall

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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Hurricane Claudette-Texas landfall

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:23 pm

Image

Formed as a rare Eastern/Centeral Caribbean cyclone then lossed its LLC reforming northward. In then having to deal with shear for a few more days, followed with the system bombing as it made landfall.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: Hurricane Claudette-Texas landfall

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 19, 2023 11:56 pm

Image
WONT41 KNHC 061748
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD INLANDS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE.
THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM COULD GET
DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION AND WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO STRONG SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR ON THE EAST SIDE THAT COULD OFFSET THE DRY AIR AND
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT.
THIS DELICATE BALANCE COULD PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

ALL INTERESTS FROM ST. LUCIA SOUTHWARD SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ANY
STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE IN THE EVENT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM FORMS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER STEWART



000
WONT41 KNHC 071333
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

VISIBLE...WATER VAPOR...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE
THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD INLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. IN FACT...OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE STARTING TO LOSE SOME OF ITS ORGANIZATION DUE TO THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 MPH. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM IF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTER. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SHORT NOTICE. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP....LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO NEAR
35 MPH AT BARBADOS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WONT41 KNHC 081806
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

AT THE END OF A SEVEN-HOUR SEARCH...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCTRAFT FOUND A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM IS
THEREFORE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WITH 45 MPH WINDS
AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. A FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
BY 2100 UTC...5 PM EDT. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF
CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY. ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE
APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE
WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF
1006-1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25. CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE
STORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN U. S.. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING
A RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY
DECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE
WATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER
AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION.

CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
THE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER SOME WEAKENING
OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO.

WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM
CLAUDETTE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT


NNNN


Image
CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

CLAUDETTE HAS AN OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WELL DEFINED
BANDING FEATURES. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BARELY CLOSED OFF A
SMALL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1000
MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 72 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET SUGGESTING THAT
CLAUDETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED 55 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF CLAUDETTE...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME SHEAR...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN LEAVING
A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS HIGH. THEREFORE... CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENSISULA AS A
HURRICANE.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 22 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHING A
DEEP EASTERLY MEAN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM...24 TO 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE
RIDGE FORCING CLAUDETTE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHERN YUCATAN. AT LONGER RANGE...THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS IF THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR NOT. THIS VARIES WITH THE MODEL YOU PICK.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 15.2N 73.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 80.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 84.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.0N 90.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.0N 92.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 93.5W 55 KT


NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENCOUNTERED A SMALL BAND OF FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS NEAR 85 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 04Z...BUT MORE
RECENTLY COULD ONLY FIND 55 KNOT WINDS IN THE SAME AREA. THE 85
KNOT OBSERVATION COULD BE USED TO UPGRADE CLAUDETTE TO A HURRICANE.
BUT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASED TO 1004 MB AND THE HIGH
WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN TRANSITORY...THE OFFICIAL ONE-MINUTE
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS.

THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS CLAUDETTE TO 76 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CDO FEATURE DISTORTED...THE
OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FLATTENING OF THE WEST SIDE OUTFLOW BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE RISE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE SIGNS OF
INHIBITING THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
...BUT THEN STRENGTHENING MAY RESUME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO
70 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/22. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN
DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 4 WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 3 DAYS
BRINGING THE STORM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME BY DAY 5 WITH THE
GFS MODEL SHOWING A LOCATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
NOGAPS HAS THE CENTER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES.

I HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
MEXICO BY TELEPHONE TO COORDINATE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 75.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.7N 78.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.2N 82.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 85.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 88.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 92.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 93.0W 55 KT


NNNN
Image
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

CLAUDETTE HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE CENTER TO BECOME INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED ON THE
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...AND A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT.
BASED ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT...AND THIS MAY
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. CLAUDETTE REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHOSE WESTERN END IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR AS A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
CLAUDETTE WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...SO THE MOST LIKELY RESPONSE OF THE STORM IS A SLOW
MOTION WHILE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GRADUALLY DECELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HR
AS CLAUDETTE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BAMS AND NHC98 ARE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST...BUT COULD VERIFY IF CLAUDETTE WEAKENS FURTHER.

AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT THE CLAUDETTE VORTEX IS RATHER SMALL...SO
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT IF THE SHEAR PERSISTS THE
SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE. ASSUMING THAT DOES NOT
HAPPEN...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CLAUDETTE TO WEAKEN AFTER 12-24 HR AND THE SHEAR TO DECREASE. THE
LOW APPEARS STRONGER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN ANY OF THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR 12Z...SO IT WILL LIKELY HANG ON LONGER THAN THE
MODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HR IN A
MARGINAL AT BEST ENVIRONMENT...FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES YUCATAN. BY THE TIME CLAUDETTE REACHES THE GULF
OF MEXICO...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.


FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.5N 77.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.3N 80.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 17.6N 83.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.1N 86.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 20.5N 89.0W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 91.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 93.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 25.5N 94.0W 60 KT

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

CLAUDETTE IS PRODUCING BURSTING-TYPE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION DURING THE BURSTS AND
EXPOSED AT OTHER TIMES. THE LAST TWO CENTER PASSES OF THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 65 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 20
NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 1001
AND 1002 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
DESPITE THE SHEAR AND THE RAGGED CENTRAL CONVECTION... CLAUDETTE IS
MAINTAINING AN OVERALL HEALTHY APPEARANCE WITH A LARGE BAND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
CLAUDETTE REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHOSE
WESTERN END IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CLAUDETTE WILL
LIKELY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO THE STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY WESTWARD AS PRESSURES
INCREASE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUALLY
DECELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HR AS
CLAUDETTE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY THE
ABOVE MENTIONED MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

CLAUDETTE RETAINS A SMALL CORE...AND THE ONGOING SHEAR COULD STILL
CAUSE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS SHEARING PUNCH TO THE JAW
HAS NOT BEEN A FATAL BLOW. LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND REDUCED SHEAR...AND WHILE THEY
STILL APPEAR TO DO THIS TOO SOON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN CIRRUS
CLOUD MOTIONS THAT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BASED ON THIS...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
LANDFALL IN YUCATAN...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLAUDETTE COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE BY THEN. AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND...THE STORM SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO IN A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.0N 79.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.8N 82.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 18.3N 85.6W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 19.8N 88.1W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/1800Z 21.2N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 12/1800Z 23.0N 92.0W 40 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 13/1800Z 24.5N 93.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 25.5N 95.0W 60 KT

Image
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Sat May 20, 2023 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: Hurricane Claudette-Texas landfall

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 20, 2023 12:00 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

CLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS POSITION WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT FIXES
FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1002 AND 1004 MB AND MAX WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO 50 KNOTS. ONE PLUS FOR CLAUDETTE IS THAT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BUT IT HAS NOT HAPPENED SO FAR. THEREFORE..NO CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRENGTHENING JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN EARLY FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE GLOBAL MODELS
WILL BE CORRECT.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 TO 20 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE NORTH OF STORM RESULTING IS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. BY THE TIME CLAUDETTE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE WEAK AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION OF THE CONSENSUS OR
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...UK AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL 72-H
POSITION IS NOT FAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

ALL OF THE ABOVE ASSUMES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL SURVIVE THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 16.3N 81.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.2N 83.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 86.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 20.5N 88.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/0000Z 22.0N 90.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 13/0000Z 24.0N 93.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 14/0000Z 25.5N 94.5W 60 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.0W 70 KT...OVER WATER


NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWING
OF FORWARD SPEED AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
BREAKS DOWN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD BE DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS SHOW A
THREAT TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 57 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A
996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. A RATHER LARGE AND COLD BUT DISTORTED CDO
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FOR 5 DAYS AND THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THIS TIME. IN CONTRAST THE GFDL
MODEL AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 82 KNOTS BY DAY 4. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AGAIN MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON DAY 3 THROUGH
DAY 5.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.8N 82.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.8N 84.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 19.5N 87.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 21.5N 89.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 23.3N 91.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 24.5N 93.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 25.5N 94.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 26.5N 96.5W 60 KT
Image

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

CLAUDETTE HAS RE-ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 10 NM WIDE EYE AND A 988 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1201Z SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 69 KT AT 700 MB AND A
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT 78 KT AT 850 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. THAT BEING SAID...THIS STRENGTHENING
MAY HAVE BEEN A SHORT TERM BURST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE SECOND PASS OF
THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE PRESSURE RISING TO 993 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LIKELY REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 300/14. OTHER THAN THAT...THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A BROKEN RECORD...THE SAME AS FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW
AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...
AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY...CLAUDETTE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...ALTHOUGH
AGAIN THEY ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK IN DOING SO. CLAUDETTE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY DO SO IN A RATHER UNSTEADY FASHION. CLAUDETTE SHOULD WEAKEN
WHILE OVER LAND...THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO.
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED FOR THE 3-5 DAY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST...AS THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST THE LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE MAY WEAKEN BY THAT TIME. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT
TIME.


FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 17.8N 83.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 85.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 20.7N 87.6W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 12/0000Z 22.3N 89.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 12/1200Z 23.5N 91.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 93.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 25.5N 95.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W 70 KT...INLAND

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE AT 1530Z. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT...AND AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE INDICATED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
TWO HOURS LATER...THE PLANE FOUND A FRAGMENTED WINDFIELD NEAR THE
DECAYED EYEWALL...WITH WINDS LOWER AND PRESSURES HIGHER THAN
MEASURED ON THE PREVIOUS PASS. WHILE THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE
OF 1005 MB...IT DID NOT GET A GOOD CENTER FIX AND THE INITIAL WIND
AND PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 60 KT AND 993 MB UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THESE ARE LIKELY GENEROUS ESTIMATES. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT... SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT
AN EXPOSED CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBLE
RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/12. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD...THE
SAME AS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...AND SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR
BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT 120
HR THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BETWEEN THE GFDL
LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AND THE UKMET LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.

WHILE CLAUDETTE HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THERE IS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THEOUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE STORM.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 96 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING...ALBEIT LESS THAN FORECAST EARLIER. THIS
STRENGTHENING MAY VERY WELL COME IN BURSTS AS SEEN THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 18.6N 84.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 19.9N 85.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 21.6N 87.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 23.1N 89.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 24.2N 91.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 25.5N 93.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 95.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 70 KT...INLAND

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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECON. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER THE CENTER BRIEFLY MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED OR REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. CLAUDETTE NOW
CONSISTS OF A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN CONVECTIVE BANDS. IN
FACT...THE RECON HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A TRUE CENTER AND THE
POSITION USED HERE IS BASED ON SATELLITE AND A FEW WIND SHIFTS
REPORTED BY THE RECON.

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45 KNOTS AND THAT IS
PROBABLY OVERESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE SUDDEN AND UNEXPECTED WEAKENING
OF CLAUDETTE...AND THE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
LANDFALL IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
YUCATAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

ONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT
HAS A CHANGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE GLOBAL
MODELS WHICH INSIST ON FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WIND ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE ALL THE UPS AND DOWN IN THE STRUCTURE OF
CLAUDETTE...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
WELL-ORGANIZED.

CLAUDETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14
KNOTS. THIS MOTION PROBABLY INCLUDES THE ALLEDGED REFORMATION. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MISS
THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ONCE IT
REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS..NOGAPS AND
UK GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 20.0N 85.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 87.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 24.5N 91.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 25.5N 93.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 26.0N 94.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 26.0N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THE RECON HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CENTER BUT DID REPORT
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE MID 40 KT RANGE. HOWEVER...SHIP
ELWX5...AUTOMATICALLY REPORTING AROUND EVERY 15 MINUTES...PAINTED A
SURFACE WIND SPEED PROFILE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A MAXIMUM
VALUE OF 50 KTS. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE CENTER FOR 0600 Z SUGGESTED THAT THE
CENTER WAS TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL AND THE FACT THAT CANCUN WAS
REPORTING 20 KTS FROM THE EAST I DECIDED TO PUT A CENTER JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL. MY 0900 Z POSITION IS AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE 0600 Z AND PUTS THE CENTER RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF COZUMEL.

ONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT
SHOULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND RE-STRENGTHEN. ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 48
HOURS.

SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE STALLED
BRIEFLY...BUT IT SHOULD RESUME MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. LATER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND MISS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST ONCE IT REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS..NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 21.0N 86.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 22.4N 88.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 23.9N 90.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 25.2N 92.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 25.8N 93.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 26.2N 95.2W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 26.2N 97.2W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 26.2N 99.1W 20 KT...INLAND
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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BROADLY
CURVED DEEP CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT REPORTS FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1008 MB.
BASED ON THIS AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT
MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOWER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CLAUDETTE...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BETWEEN LARGE ANTICYCLONES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ENOUGH RIDGING REMAINS
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF CLAUDETTE TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE TROUGH. AFTER 36
HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD AND STEER
CLAUDETTE MORE WESTWARD. MOST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH BAMD...NHC98...AND LBAR MOVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
GO WITH THE WESTWARD TURN...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE IN ABOUT 96 HR.

CLAUDETTE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND IN SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR.
THIS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY PREVENT STRENGTHENING FOR
12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DEVELOP THE ANTICYCLONE OVER
CLAUDETTE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND CANADIAN DEVELOP THE
ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH WOULD EXPOSE THE
STORM TO 15-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS FEATURE TO PUT FULL FAITH IN THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY...
STRENGTHENING COULD BE EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.6N 87.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 22.9N 88.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 24.3N 90.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 25.2N 91.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 25.8N 92.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 26.0N 95.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 100.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING


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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

CLAUDETTE IS QUITE DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND
THERE ARE 3 OR 4 CLOUD SWIRLS/VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE
MEAN CENTER. THE STRONGEST REMAINING CONVECTION IS WELL EAST OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON THE 50-55 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED
EARLIER BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE
APPEARENCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/12. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WEST OF CLAUDETTE...WITH A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 32N92W. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. SURFACE AND
RAWINSONDE DATA INDICATES LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE TROUGH WILL REACH ITS
MAXIMUM SOUTHERN EXTENT NEAR 85W OR EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF
CLAUDETTE...AND THAT THE TROUGH IS UNLIKELY TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE.
MOST DYNAMIC GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY MOVING CLAUDETTE
NORTHWEST FOR 24-48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN.
THE LBAR AND THE MM5 TAKE THE STORM TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHICH LOOKS
STRANGE IN LIGHT OF THE NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW THAT ALL MODELS
FORECAST IN THAT AREA. THE UKMET HAS ALSO JUMPED FURTHER NORTH...
BUT IS INCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS THUS DISCOUNTED
FOR THE MOMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE WESTWARD MODEL SUITE.

CLAUDETTE REMAINS IN SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS AND THE
CURRENT DISORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PREVENT STRENGTHENING FOR
12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS. THE NOGAPS IS NOW THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE. THE UKMET...GFS...AND CANADIAN DEVELOP
THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH WOULD EXPOSE
THE CYCLONE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLAUDETTE
STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...THE STORM COULD
MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
THE CHANCES OF THIS APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV JET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION...WITH THE DATA TO BE USED IN THE 00Z MODELS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 22.4N 88.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 23.5N 89.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 24.6N 91.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 25.3N 92.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 25.8N 93.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 95.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 98.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CLAUDETTE HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION
BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...THERE ARE
SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER ONE. THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN CHOSEN TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGER
ROTATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND...1500 FEET...OF 60 KNOTS AND SEVERAL OTHER
PEAKS OF 45 AND 50 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. THESE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO THE POOR
ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS.

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONG WINDS
WERE MEASURED. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR SSW
WINDS OVER CLAUDETTE INDICATING THAT THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAXED AS
ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND THE GFS IS
LEAVING THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT KEEPS A
RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT NOT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...ONLY AN UNEXPECTED SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD
BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED ON THE MOTION
OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/11. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY
DROPSONDES RELEASED FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. THEREFORE...
CLAUDETTE SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN THE CENTRAL GULF. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A
RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF CLAUDETTE...WILL FORCE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND EVEN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE LASTEST TRACK MODEL
RUN.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 22.9N 89.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 24.2N 91.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 25.0N 92.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 25.5N 93.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 26.0N 94.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 26.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 101.5W 20 KT...INLAND


NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN CLAUDETTE. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE MEASURED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES HAVE BEEN SHOWING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER CLAUDETTES CENTER AND DATA FROM THE
NOAA GULFSTREAM IV RECON...MEASURED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ...CONFIRMED
THAT THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 300 TO 250 MB LEVEL. JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL...AT 200 MB...THE DATA SHOWED GOOD ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST TWO MORE DAYS AND THEN CHANGE BEFORE LANDFALL ON DAY 3. IF
THIS CHANGE DOES OCCUR THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. SO I AM
STILL CALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL.

RECENTLY...THE RECON MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 51 KTS
AND A 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. ALSO...SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE AT
45 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS IS A
GRADUAL SLOWING DOWN AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 23.6N 90.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 24.5N 91.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 25.2N 92.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 25.7N 93.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 26.0N 95.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 65 KT...LANDFALL
96HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 99.4W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 17/0600Z 26.0N 102.6W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATED


NNNN
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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

WITH SEVERAL LITTLE CLOUD SWIRLS PRANCING ABOUT...IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER FROM EITHER RECON OR SATELLITE
DATA...BUT THE CYCLONE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE BASICALLY ON TRACK.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS BEGINNING TO
SLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10. CONVECTION
REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS SOME HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AIRCRAFT REPORTS OF 55 KT WINDS AT 1000 FT
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 45
KT.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC
REASONING. CLAUDETTE IS ALREADY WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM LOUISIANA WESTWARD...THE CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND TO THE WEST WITHIN 36
HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE
OVERALL STEERING CURRENT. THUS A SLOWER MOTION IS EXPECTED AFTER
THE STORM TURNS TO THE WEST.

THE UPPER-LEVER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN CLAUDETTE IN A
SHEARING FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS
TIME. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. ONE REMAINING CONCERN IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD RELAX SOME AFTER 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

SPECIAL NOTE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPEARS TO NO LONGER
CALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THIS IS BECAUSE THE 72
HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND. CLAUDETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 24.1N 91.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 24.8N 92.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 25.5N 93.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 25.8N 94.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 26.0N 95.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 26.0N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 17/1200Z 25.5N 102.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

ITS JUST A STEP TO THE RIGHT...I THINK. CLAUDETTE HAS TAKEN A LITTLE
JOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 340/7.
RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS OF 1008 CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 55 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. CLAUDETTE
IS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
WITH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
LOUISIANA WESTWARD...THE CURRENT TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO JUMP TO THE
LEFT SHORTLY. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN WESTERLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE OVERALL STEERING CURRENT...AND THEREFORE A
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE VORTEX CAN MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE.

THE UPPER-LEVER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN CLAUDETTE IN A
SHEARING FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION...
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS
TIME. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. ONE REMAINING CONCERN IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD RELAX SOME AFTER 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

SPECIAL NOTE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPEARS TO NO LONGER
CALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THIS IS BECAUSE THE 72
HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND. CLAUDETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 24.7N 91.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 25.3N 92.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 25.8N 93.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 26.0N 94.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 95.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 17/1800Z 25.5N 102.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
Image

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

DESPITE THE PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...TENACIOUS CLAUDETTE HAS
BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT HAS CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE INTERMETTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY A PLANE IN
TWO DAYS. HOWEVER... IT WENT BACK UP TO 1005 MB...AS WE SPEAK. THIS
SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS AT ALL THAT SHEAR IS RELAXING AT THIS TIME...AND IN FACT...
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME. GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER CLAUDETTE. HOWEVER...THEY DO FORECAST WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLIES
OVER THE STORM IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OUTPUT OF THE SHIPS MODEL THAT DECREASES THE SHEAR FROM 20 DOWN
TO 12 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS. IF CLAUDETTE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE AT
OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

AFTER THE LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...CLAUDETTE IS BACK ON
TRACK. 500 MB DATA AT 00Z INDICATE THAT A TROUGH PASSED TO THE
NORTH EARLIER TODAY AND A RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE CLAUDETTE TO MOVE ON A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK. IN FACT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALREADY 280
DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. ONCE CLAUDETTE BECOMES TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST...VERY SLOWLY. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 48 TO 60
HOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 25.1N 91.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.7N 93.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 26.0N 94.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 26.0N 95.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 26.0N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND

CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

AS YOGI BERRA SAID...ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN. CLAUDETTE LOOKS
THE SAME AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. IT IS STILL BEING SHEARED AND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED. FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS
FROM THE RECON ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...51 KTS VERSUS 52 KTS. THE
INITIAL SURFACE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS. THE PRESSURE
REMAINS AT 1005 MB.

GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE STORM IN
ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OUTPUT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL THAT DECREASES THE SHEAR FROM 18 TO 12 KNOTS BY 36
HOURS. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE
CYCLONE COULD BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF
LANDFALL.

AFTER THE LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...CLAUDETTE HAS
JOGGED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ADDITIONAL JOGS OR WOBBLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ON A GENERALLY WESTERLY COURSE. THIS WESTERLY
COURSE IS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 25.0N 92.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 25.4N 93.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 25.7N 94.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 25.9N 95.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 97.2W 60 KT...LANDFALL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 26.1N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/0600Z 26.2N 101.5W 20 KT...INLAND
Image
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

ONCE AGAIN THE WIND CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN PULLED INTO THE
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THIS TIME THERE WAS A RESPONSE IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD. THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS 996
MB...DOWN ABOUT 11 MB SINCE YESTERDAY. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR
60 KT AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 50 KT. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS IS A TRANSITORY PRESSURE FALL.
ALTHOUGH THE RECON CENTER FIX WAS A SOLID ONE...THE FEATURE THEY
ARE TRACKING STILL APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND WITHIN A BROADER
CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...FIX TO FIX MOTIONS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE
MISLEADING. THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/6.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE OVER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THAT MAY CAUSE CLAUDETTE TO LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE GULF...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND A SHADE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EACH INTERACTION OF
THE CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST ALSO SLOWS THE
WESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE BASIC FORECAST
THINKING IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.

MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SHEAR LESSENS SLIGHTLY...
AND CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 25.4N 92.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 25.7N 93.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 26.1N 94.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 26.4N 95.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 26.5N 97.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/1200Z 26.5N 101.5W 25 KT...DISSPATING INLAND
120HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS MORNINGS INTENSIFICATION IS OVER...FOR NOW...AS THE CONVECTION
IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS MUCH BETTER DEFINED NOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.THE
PRESSURE FELL TO AS LOW AS 994 MB EARLIER BUT IS NOW BACK UP TO 997
MB. THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT...BUT WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING AWAY
FROM THE CENTER I AM NOT GOING TO BUMP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY UP AT
THIS TIME.

CLAUDETTE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN THE
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN BUILDING
THE LATTER RIDGE EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PULLS
OUT. ONCE THIS OCCURS...A MORE DEFINITIVE WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
BEGIN. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS PROCESS IS GOING TO TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS WILL DELAY
THE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERNS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL HAVE
MUCH TO SAY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. THE GFS AND
THE CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CLAUDETTE...HELPING TO
REINFORCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. AN OPPOSING
POINT OF VIEW IS OFFERED BY THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH
BRING A PIECE OF THE HIGH NORTHWARD TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. I AM HARD PRESSED AT THIS
TIME TO FIND A REASON TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. OUR
EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS AND THAT WILL REMAIN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 25.5N 92.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 94.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 26.3N 95.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 26.5N 97.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 26.5N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 17/1800Z 26.5N 102.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Image
CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 991 MB AND
THEN BACK TO 992 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND IN THIS FLIGHT CONTINUES TO
BE THE 69 KNOTS RECORDED EARLIER TODAY. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS HAS
JUST BEEN MEASURED. DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND PRESSURE
DROP...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.

THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAX...SO THE CURRENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
MAY BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY. CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN FIGHTING THE SHEAR AND A SMALL
RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE BURSTS OF CONVECTION.

CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
CENTER MOVING IN AND OUT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.
GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED AND CONTINUES TO BRING CLAUDETTE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COASTS.

CLAUDETTE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THEREFORE THE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS
HAS BEEN DELAYED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 25.7N 92.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 26.0N 92.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 26.5N 94.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 95.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 26.7N 97.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 26.7N 99.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/0000Z 26.7N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

NNNN
CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL AT 992 MB. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS ARE 65 KTS...VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER VALUES...SO THE MAXIMUM
WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KTS.

BECAUSE THE STORM REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. ANY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION.

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS THAT CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AND MAY BE STARTING
TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
TRACK WITH LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND REQUIRES AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE
ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 26.3N 92.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 26.8N 93.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 27.2N 94.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 27.5N 95.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 27.7N 97.3W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 17/0600Z 28.2N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/0600Z 29.0N 102.4W 15 KT...INLAND


Image
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

CLAUDETTE IS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS MOVED INTO THE CONVECTION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE LAST
TWO FIXES FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NOTED AN
OPEN EYEWALL WAS PRESENT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 991 MB AND
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 65-70 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. MORNING RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD
SOON BE BLOCKED...AS CLAUDETTE IS ABOUT TO MEET A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE
AT 400 MB AND BELOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING
ABOUT THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST
BY TRACK GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL
THE TURN OCCUR? THE MODELS SUGGEST IT SHOULD OCCUR ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY...BUT THIS IS NOT YET SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE OR THE
OCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF THE CENTER ON THE HOUSTON WSR-88D. THE
TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
6-12 HR...FOLLWED BY THE TURN. THE TRACK IS THEREFORE NUDGED NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS. THIS TRACK
REQUIRES WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY BE FORMING
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE. THIS MAY HELP BRING ABOUT THE
TURN...AND MAY ALSO HELP SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE PERSISTENT
SHEAR. INDEED...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY
IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS WOULD ALLOW GREATER
DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE MOMENT AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE... WHICH
WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE ON DEVELOPMENT. SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE
STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 90 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL. BASED ON THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL
IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER LANDFALL...
CLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 26.9N 92.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 27.4N 93.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 27.8N 94.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 28.3N 96.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 28.6N 98.2W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 17/1200Z 29.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

CLAUDETTE IS STRUGGLING WITH SHEAR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM
HAS HAD AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO
AIRCRAFT DATA. HOWEVER...RECENT HOUSTON WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE
EYEWALL IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
CENTER IS CLOSE TO BECOMING EXPOSED. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE
WINDS INDICATING THE INTENSITY IS STILL 55 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SEVERAL OIL RIGS NEAR THE CENTER ARE REPORTING HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
LONGER TERM MOTION OF 340/7 AND A SHORTER TERM MOTION SINCE 15Z
THAT IS SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS
THE START OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN...BUT ALL AVAILABLE DATA
SUGGEST SUCH A TURN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6-18 HR. THUS...
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE
FORECAST TRACK NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON
THE INITIAL POSITION...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST IN 24-36 HR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY
BE PRESENT SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE...IT IS SO FAR NOT DOING MUCH TO
SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE SHEAR. IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS LESS
IMPREESIVE THAN 6 HR AGO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
DEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE...WHICH WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE.
SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO 82 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SUCH AS HAS OCCURRED FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. AFTER LANDFALL...CLAUDETTE
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 27.5N 93.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 27.9N 94.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 28.3N 95.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 28.7N 97.3W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1800Z 29.0N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 17/1800Z 29.0N 102.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Image
CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

CLAUDETTE IS ALMOST A HURRICANE. ITS ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE WITH AN EYE NOW VISIBLE ON RADAR. LAST RECON REPORTED 77 KT
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTBOUND FROM THEIR LAST FIX...WHICH
ADJUSTS TO ROUGHLY 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE HAS NOT
FALLEN YET BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO SHORTLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS OUTFLOW EXPANDING TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND DATA FROM
THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET CONFIRM THAT THE SHEAR OVER CLAUDETTE IS
STILL PRESENT BUT DECREASING. CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF
TIME FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO DO SO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ANOTHER FACTOR
INHIBITING STRENGTHENING WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT.

THE LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE WEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 280/7. NOW THAT CLAUDETTE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE IN THE U.S. SOUTHWEST...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE
LESSENING...THE FORWARD SPEED COULD INCREASE A LITTLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 27.8N 94.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 28.0N 95.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 28.2N 97.0W 60 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1200Z 28.5N 99.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0000Z 28.5N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0000Z 28.5N 104.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

CZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

CLAUDETTE IS NOW A HURRICANE. THE FIRST OF THE 2003 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 84 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THIS IS
THE REASON FOR UP-GRADING TO A HURRICANE. ON THE MOST RECENT
PASS...AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 982 MB WAS REPORTED...A DROPSONDE
MISSED THE EYE AND THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST SUGGESTED THIS WAS THE
VALUE IF IT HAD HIT THE CENTER OF THE EYE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
VISIBLE ON COASTAL RADARS AND EARLIER SHOWED AN APPROXIMATELY 25
MILE DIAMETER EYE. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR
ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE EYE DIAMETER MAY BE GETTING SMALLER AND
SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12
TO 18 HOURS.

CLAUDETTE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS INCREASED IT
FORWARD SPEED...270/10. THIS WILL PUT THE STORM NEAR THE COAST IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS AND ALL MAINTAIN A SPEED OF ABOUT 10 KTS AFTER
LANDFALL...WHICH WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL INLAND AND WEAKEN IT
VERY QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 28.0N 95.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 28.0N 96.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 28.3N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1800Z 28.9N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0600Z 29.6N 104.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATED


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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

CLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES
THE TEXAS COAST. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOSED AND CONTRACTED TO 25 NM
DIAMETER....WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB. THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING THE HURRICANE REPORTED 80-85
KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL....WHILE WSR-88D
DATA FROM HOUSTON HAS INDICATED WINDS NEAR 90 KT. BASED ON THIS...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. PART OF THE EYE AND
EYEWALL ARE ALREADY OVER LAND...SO ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...
CLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR.

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TRACKWISE. CLAUDETTE IS MOVING 285/9 ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.

NOTE: AN EYE DROPSONDE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX RECEIVED AFTER THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS TRANSMITTED REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 979 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY REACH
75-80 KT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE CLAUDETTE WEAKENS OVER
LAND.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 28.5N 96.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 28.7N 97.6W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1200Z 29.0N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0000Z 29.5N 102.3W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 30.0N 104.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL. THE EYE HAS FILLED IN
ON SATELLITE...AND TO SOME EXTENT ON RADAR. DOPPLER WINDS ON THE
WSR-88D IN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI HAVE ALSO DECREASED SOMEWHAT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT BASED ON WINDS OF 75-80 KT
ALOFT SEEN IN WSR-88D DATA IN THE EYEWALL.

CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MOVING 280-285 AT 12 KT...ALTHOUGH THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN CLOSER TO 270. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN 24-36 HR.

NOTE: THERE WERE TWO REPORTS OF INTEREST RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AFTER THE 15Z PACKAGE WAS RELEASED.
FIRST...THERE WERE WINDS OF 85 KT AT 700 MB NORTHEAST OF THE EYE
JUST BEFORE THE EYE CROSSED THE COAST. SECOND...AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE IN THE SAME AREA INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 70
KT. BASED ON THESE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CLAUDETTE MADE
LANDFALL WITH 75 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 28.7N 97.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 28.9N 99.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1800Z 29.6N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0600Z 30.3N 104.7W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
48HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003

CLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS WINDS ALOFT OF AT LEAST 55 KT AT ABOUT 5000 FT ALTITUDE.
THERE ARE VERY FEW OBSERVATIONS ON WHICH TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT
INTENSITY...BUT MY BEST GUESS IS ABOUT 45 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INLAND. THE PRIMARY THREATS NOW
ARE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CLAUDETTE IS NOW MOVING AT
270/12. A CONTINUED WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

WITH COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
CLAUDETTE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 28.5N 98.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 28.8N 101.0W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/0000Z 29.5N 103.5W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1200Z 30.5N 106.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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