Tropical storm Odette

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Sciencerocks
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Tropical storm Odette

#1 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 20, 2023 12:30 am

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000
WONT41 KNHC 041215
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
715 AM EST THU DEC 4 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA... HISPANIOLA... SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ALL INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER AVILA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU DEC 04 2003

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH BANDING FEATURES AND APPEARS TO HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE GENESIS OF THIS OFF-SEASON SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SUCCESSFULLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE A TROPICAL
STORM. HOWEVER...WE WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE CHECKS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED.

BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 025/09. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH NHC GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 13.3N 76.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.7N 75.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 73.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 25.0N 70.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 38.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL

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CZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003

DUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HEADING FOR THE
CYCLONE TURNED BACK TO BASE. THE NEXT FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR
FRIDAY AT 12Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
ODETTE...THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE YEAR AND THE FIRST NAMED STORM
TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN DECEMBER.

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER
DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...
ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE.

ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ODETTE
SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL. THE GFDL HAS
CONTINUED TO BE MOODY. ONE RUN MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE AND THE
NEXT ONE DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS.

ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS
ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 14.0N 75.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.4N 74.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 74.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 07/1800Z...ABSORBED

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Sciencerocks
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Re: Tropical storm Odette

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 20, 2023 12:31 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003

ODETTE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD
TOPS TO -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWED
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS UNDER THE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
WELL ENOUGH DEVELOPED TO CALL AN EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALL 35 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CURVATURE
UNDERNEATH...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ODETTE IS A BIT
STRONGER. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

THE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION...SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS A SMALL RELOCATION. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/7. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A DEEP-LAYER WINTER STORM IS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY
DRAWING ODETTE TO THE NORTHEAST. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
SPEED. THE BAMD...BAMM...AND LBAR ARE MUCH FASTER WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION....WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND
BAMS ARE MUCH SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION
FOR THE FIRST 24 HR FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION.

ODETTE IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW TO
THE NORTH SWEEPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED
SHEAR...MOVEMENT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
ODETTE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR AND ABSORBED INTO THE
ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HR.

ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS
ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 15.8N 74.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 17.9N 73.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 21.4N 71.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 26.5N 67.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW


NNNN

CZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
ODETTE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNDERGOING
PERIODIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS EVERY 3 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE
DATA EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
BAND WITH ABOUT A 75 PERCENT MID-LEVEL EYEWALL. THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE FEATURE AND A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...PLUS A
DATA T-NUMBER OF 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/07. ODETTE CONTINUES TO DEFY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS..BY
MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MDOEL TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL...GFS...
AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ODETTE SHARPLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...AND MOVE THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE OR BARELY ACROSS WESTERN HAITI IN 30-36 HOURS.
THIS SEEMS RATHER EXTREME GIVEN THAT THERE IS MODERATE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURROUNDING THE UPPER-AIR
OBSERVATIONS. IN CONTRAST...THE CANADIAN MODEL TAKES ODETTE
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA WHILE THE UKMET...THE
FARTHEST RIGHT OF ALL THE NHC MODELS...TAKES ODETTE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ODETTE MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITHIN A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI EAST OF THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE NHC MODELS AGREE ON A MUCH SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED...LESS THAN 10 KT...THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...WITH RAPID
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AFTER THAT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS
THE GUNA OR GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE
CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST TRACK.

ODETTE REMAINS UNDER LESS THAN 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHICH FAVORS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.
OF COURSE...THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW STRONG IS ODETTE
CURRENTLY. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF RECON FINDS A STRONGER STORM
THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT IN 24 HOURS GIVEN THE
CURRENT IMPRESIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE FACT THAT SSTS ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 29C BENEATH THE CYCLONE. AFTER ODETTE PASSES OVER THE CENTER
OF HISPANIOLA...THE 8000-10000 FT MOUNTAINS SHOULD REALLY DISRUPT
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT THAT
EMERGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO
CATCH UP WITH ODETTE BY 60-72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AND ABSORB
THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS
ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.5N 74.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.6N 73.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 72.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 20.5N 70.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.7N 65.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE


NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...FORECASTER NAME...

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHED ODETTE THIS MORNING AND FOUND A WELL-
ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN
ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO
3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE
CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND
WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER
FRONTAL LOW.

ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON A TURN MORE
TO NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS MODEL SOLUTION WAS OBSERVED DURING HURRICANE LENNY IN
1999 WHEN ALL MODELS INDICATED A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND THE
HURRICANE CONTINUED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXCELLENT
PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND TURNS ODETTE MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 14.2N 74.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 73.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 72.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 20.0N 71.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO
BANDING DURING THE DAY. LAST AIR FORCE FIX FOUND A VERY TIGHT
CENTER WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING AND THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT
CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN FACT...THE
GFDL MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A
MUCH LARGER FRONTAL LOW.

ODETTE HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT...AS ANTICIPATED...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST A LITTLE BIT
FASTER. THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY A
MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGING
ODETTE OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 15.0N 73.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 72.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 21.0N 69.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 65.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

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Re: Tropical storm Odette

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 20, 2023 12:33 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A 43
KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM BOTH THIS AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH
FLIGHT INDICATE ODETTE IS TILTED TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 050/9. SURFACE DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM
SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS STORM SHOULD STEER ODETTE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AS THE GFS AND AND UKMET ARE FASTER
WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS
AND GUNA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

WHILE ODETTE CURRENTLY HAS OUTFLOW EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM REACHES HISPANIOLA. PASSAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CAUSE ODETTE TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION...THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS
WHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ODETTE TO CAUSE SOME GALES AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE INTENSITY AND WIND
RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN CHANGED AT 48 HR TO REFLECT THIS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 15.3N 72.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 16.7N 71.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 70.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 67.9W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.5N 62.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

ODETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON RECON AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST FLIGHT
INTO ODETTE HAD TO BE TRUNCATED DUE TO INTENSE LIGHTNING AND SEVERE
TURBULENCE. THEREFORE...THE MAX WINDS NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY WERE
NOT SAMPLED...BUT RECON STILL FOUND 60 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT
0433Z WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS MORE THAN 40 NMI
FROM THE RADAR CENTER. A 06/0310Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED AN 80
PERCENT CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND AN ELONGATED BUT CLOSED
MID-LEVEL EYE. IN ADDITION...A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMS THAT ODETTE
HAS STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.
UNLIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS
SPREAD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...THERE IS MUCH
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THIS MORNING ON A
TRACK ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ABOUT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
ONCE ODETTE EMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY 24 HOURS
...WITH RAPID ACCELERATION BEGINNING BY 36 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...
COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO OR ABSORPTION BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND THEN BASICALLY BACK ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL.

NOW THAT ODETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
HAS DECREASED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT ANOTHER 5
KT INCREASE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ODETTE...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BE
WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE ODETTE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THE
GFDL MAKES ODETTE A 74 KT HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT
THE GFDL ALSO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS HISPANIOLA.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE POTENTIALLY DEADLY
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.5N 72.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 71.3W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/0600Z 20.7N 69.3W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 65.8W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 60.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND TO
THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 995 MB. HOWEVER
THE DROP REPORTED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS SUGGESTING THAT IT DID NOT HIT
THE CENTER AND THE PRESSURE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ODETTE HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT
IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE TO REACH
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 TO 12
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER OUTBREAK OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...IN FACT... THEY ARE ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE VERY RELIABLE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.2N 71.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 71.0W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 68.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 08/0000Z 25.5N 64.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 58.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE LOW.


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

CORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE

THE LAST FIX FROM THE RECON WAS AROUND 17Z AND INDICATED THAT THE
CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT WINDS AND PRESSURE REMAIN
AT 55 KNOTS AND 994 MB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO
THE EAST. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE BARAHONA PENINSULA AND THE ISLA BEATA WITH
VERY HEAVY SQUALLS. THE WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT AS ODETTE MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL
AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE
TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OR TO PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

ODETTE NOT ONLY HAS REFUSED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS
ANTICIPATED BUT IN FACT...IT HAS SLOWED DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL WAS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATEST RUN.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.5N 71.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 68.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 08/0600Z 24.5N 64.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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Sciencerocks
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Re: Tropical storm Odette

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 20, 2023 12:36 am

CZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

THE CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AIR FORCE RECON AND QUIKSCAT INDICATE TROPICAL FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS OF THE STORM AND WARNINGS WILL BE LEFT UP OVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE STORM ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND QUIKSCAT WINDS..THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO
45 KNOTS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RECENT INFRARED IMAGES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHOWING A
LARGE COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE PERSISTING OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING AS ODETTE MOVES BACK OVER
WATER AND MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST BASED ON THE 18Z GFS RUN NOW ON THE FSU WEBSITE SHOWS
ODETTE QUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.3N 71.1W 45 KT...OVER LAND
12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.9N 70.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 08/0000Z 23.0N 66.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 08/1200Z 25.8N 62.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/0000Z 29.0N 57.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0000Z 37.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTIME IMAGERY BUT IS LIKELY
NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH ODETTE LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE
CENTER. WINDS OF 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM NEAR SANTO DOMINGO
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT HIGHER WINDS
STILL EXIST ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AROUND 1200 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/12...AND ODETTE APPEARS TO BE
ACCELERATING AS EXPECTED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE ALOFT ODETTE IS EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE ACCELERATES ODETTE NORTHEASTWARD BUT AT VARYING SPEEDS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER GFS/GFDL AND THE
SLOWER UKMET/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. ODETTE WILL BE COMING UNDER STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY HOW WELL THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERTICALLY
COUPLED.

ODETTE IS LIKELY TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MOST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH DURING THIS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.4N 70.2W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.4W 40 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 08/0600Z 24.0N 65.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 08/1800Z 26.7N 60.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/0600Z 29.0N 55.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

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CZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
ODETTE IS RAPIDLY MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT. THE PLANE DID NOT FIND
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT THERE WAS STILL AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP TROUGH AND 35 TO 40-KNOT WINDS. BECAUSE
GLOBAL MODELS KEEP CARRY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ODETTE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.3N 68.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 08/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 08/1200Z 26.0N 62.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/0000Z 29.5N 56.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/1200Z 33.0N 50.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/1200Z...ABSORBED

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