TROPICAL STORM PETER

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Sciencerocks
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TROPICAL STORM PETER

#1 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat May 20, 2023 1:11 am

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2003

GLOBAL MODELS DID IT AGAIN...THEY SUCCESFULLY FORECAST THE GENESIS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PETER AS THEY DID WITH ODETTE.

THE GALE CENTER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE PETER...THE 16TH NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2003
SEASON. OFFICIAL RECORDS INDICATE THAT THE LAST TIME THERE WERE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN DECEMBER
WAS 1887.

PETER ORIGINATED WITHIN A LARGER NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARD WARMER WATERS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS...MOSTLY BASED ON QUICKSCAT DATA AND
SATELLITE PRESENTATION. CURRENTLY...PETER IS MOVING LITTLE BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10
KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. PETER WILL
PROBABLY BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOST LIKELY WILL
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 24
HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 20.0N 37.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 36.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 34.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 25.5N 32.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON EST TUE DEC 09 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PETER IS DEVELOPING AN EYE FEATURE
AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATES. IN FACT..IF
THE EYE FEATURE PERSISTS...PETER COULD BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICALE
LATER TODAY. NO CHANGES IN TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ARE
INDICATED IN THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1700Z 20.3N 37.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 36.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 34.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 25.5N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003

PETER CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND SEVERAL CYCLONIC CURVED BANDS. IN
FACT...PETER MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
EARLIER TODAY WHEN A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT BUT THE CURRENT
CLOUD PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS.

PETER IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PETER SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 21.4N 36.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 36.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 35.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 29.3N 32.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

Image

CZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PETER HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
LEFT. SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS FAST AS
THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. PETER FELL THROUGH THE CRACKS OF THE
LAST TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES...SO THE INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE 45 KT ASSIGNED INTENSITY MAY BE GENEROUS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE
CYCLONE...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH...MAKES IT QUITE LIKELY THAT THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE. PETER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DODGE THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE...THE SAME ONE THAT ABSORBED ODETTE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND
PETER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THIS ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS.
ALTERNATIVELY...PETER COULD DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW IF THERE IS NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/13. PETER IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ODETTE AND PETER...THE 2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE
SEASON IS NOW THE LONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SINCE 1952...A
YEAR IN WHICH THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM FORMED ON FEBRUARY 2ND AND
THE LAST ONE DISSIPATED ON OCTOBER 28TH. ANA BECAME THE FIRST
TROPICAL STORM OF 2003 BACK ON APRIL 21ST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 22.9N 37.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 24.9N 36.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 28.1N 36.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003

THE CYCLONE IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS KEEP THE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS...BUT PETER HAS LIKELY
FALLEN BELOW STORM STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS REACHED THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF PETER AND STRONG SHEAR IS EVIDENT. THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SHOWS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN 24
HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
DISSIPATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT
A MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS THE
CYCLONE GETS SWEPT AWAY BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.4N 37.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 25.9N 36.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 11/0600Z 29.4N 33.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003

PETER HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BUT THE
LASTEST QUICKCAT STILL SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS
OF ABOUT 30 KNOTS. BECAUSE PETER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ABOUT 12 KNOTS TOWARD INCREASING COOLER WATERS...DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY. IN FACT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 24.2N 37.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 26.5N 36.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 11/1200Z 30.0N 34.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED DEC 10 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PETER HAS REFUSED TO DISSIPATE SINCE
NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. HOWEVER...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 025/15. PETER SHOULD INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY
A FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE REMNANTS OF PETER...WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER THE AZORES WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 25.7N 36.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 35.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 11/1800Z 32.2N 31.8W 25 KT...ABSORBED BY FRONT
36HR VT 12/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL

Image

CZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED DEC 10 2003

QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY VECTORS FROM THE MOST RECENT PASS AT 21Z INDICATE
THAT PETER HAS...AT BEST...ONLY A VERY SMALL CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PETER HAS BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE ONLY
INTERMITTENT AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION...NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO
QUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE... THIS WILL
BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...AND WITH ANY LUCK...THE LAST
ADVISORY FOR THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON.

THE QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 30
KT TO THE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
025/12. THE REMNANTS OF PETER SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST
TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE UNTIL THEY ARE ABSORBED INTO
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF PETER CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.5N 36.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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