Tropical Storm 02W a Threat to Land

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Anonymous

Tropical Storm 02W a Threat to Land

#1 Postby Anonymous » Thu Apr 10, 2003 7:10 pm

Tropical storm 02W should slowly intensify as it continues to move WNW around the large sub-tropical high over the northern Pacific Ocean. The high is expected to weaken temporarily, as a trough near Japan moves eastward. Due to the weakness in the ridge, a more northwesterly track can't be ruled out. This is why Guam should closely monitor 02W. The island will experience some squally weather even if the center passes just south of them. The rest of SE Asia should also be monitoring the storm. The ridge will prevent any curve to the northeast for at least a week.


Image
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Anonymous

#2 Postby Anonymous » Thu Apr 10, 2003 7:14 pm

Image
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Kevin_Wx

#3 Postby Kevin_Wx » Thu Apr 10, 2003 7:29 pm

Hey, TWW! Did you make that first graphic yourself? It looks great...we should make stuff like that for the Atlatnic TC's this year.

Commenting on 02W...the ball of convection near the center is very tight and impressive but the western outflow of the storm looks somewhat poor at this point. The structure does seem like it could tighten up rather quickly, and I fully expect 95-110 knot winds out of this system at peak, even if doesn't affect SE Asia (if it does) as a strong typhoon.
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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Thu Apr 10, 2003 7:40 pm

Hey, TWW! Did you make that first graphic yourself? It looks great...we should make stuff like that for the Atlatnic TC's this year.


Sure did. Rob and I were already planning on making graphics like the one posted above. I guess we forgot to mention it.
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Anonymous

#5 Postby Anonymous » Thu Apr 10, 2003 10:27 pm

Tropical storm 02W has just been named Kujira.

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 140000Z5 APR 03.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTH OF POHNPEI ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER IT HAS BECOME LESS SO IN THE PAST 6
HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC HAS INCREASED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL.
B. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. AFTER 24 HOURS, TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TAKE A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
AFWA MM5 AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.
D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND A
QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/KLINZMANN/NUTONGLA//

NNNN
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Thu Apr 10, 2003 10:34 pm

Latest model guidance suggests that the sub-tropical ridge may be stronger than previously forecasted. This means that a more due west track is likely beginning in 48-72 hours. That is some good news for Guam. However, this places the Philippines in a higher risk of receiving a direct landfall from a stronger typhoon.
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Although Not Impossible

#7 Postby Aslkahuna » Thu Apr 10, 2003 10:51 pm

direct strikes on the Philippines by April Typhoons are quite uncommon-climatologically, the main threat period for the Philippines begins in mid May.

Steve
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Anonymous

#8 Postby Anonymous » Thu Apr 10, 2003 11:35 pm

direct strikes on the Philippines by April Typhoons are quite uncommon-climatologically, the main threat period for the Philippines begins in mid May.


I was surprised when I saw the strong ridge. I was expecting more of a deep trough off the coast.
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ColdFront77

#9 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Apr 11, 2003 12:44 am

Abnormal conditions occurring in the United States, temperatures and precipitation type in the southeast and an abnormal track for a typhoon in the western Pacific.
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Anonymous

#10 Postby Anonymous » Fri Apr 11, 2003 6:37 pm

Updated graphic...

Image
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Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Sat Apr 12, 2003 4:31 pm

If Kujira stays on track Guam would probably have 30 knot winds max. The main threat remains farther west imo.
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Anonymous

#12 Postby Anonymous » Sat Apr 12, 2003 5:37 pm

Updated graphic...

Image
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ColdFront77

#13 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Apr 12, 2003 7:04 pm

TropicalWxWatcher, sounds like a reasonable forecast track to me. :)

I haven't heard of many typhoons moving toward and/or into "extreme" southeast Asia in awhile, considering.
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Anonymous

#14 Postby Anonymous » Sat Apr 12, 2003 7:40 pm

TropicalWxWatcher, sounds like a reasonable forecast track to me.

I haven't heard of many typhoons moving toward and/or into "extreme" southeast Asia in awhile, considering.


The track is unusual for this time of the year. There hasn't been much in the way of WPAC activity over the last few months, which is normal. Kujira is a good (or bad) way to start the WPAC typhoon season.
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Anonymous

#15 Postby Anonymous » Sat Apr 12, 2003 8:49 pm

I plan on designing a small website containing updated advisories and sat imagery on typhoon Kujira. The site should be available tomorrow.
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Anonymous

#16 Postby Anonymous » Sat Apr 12, 2003 9:48 pm

Guam News:

Storm upgraded to typhoon

By: Pacific Daily News
Pacific Daily News
Updated: April 13, 9:25 AM

Gov. Felix Camacho declared Guam in Typhoon Condition 3 at 6 a.m. today, and the National Weather Service upgraded Tropical Storm Kujira to a typhoon two hours later.

Condition three means damaging winds can hit the island within 48 hours. Residents can expect the onset of damaging winds by tomorrow night, according to a press release from the Office of Civil Defense.

As of 7 a.m., the typhoon was located at 10.3 degrees north and 151.0 degrees east, or about 475 east-southeast of Guam, according to the weather service.

Kujira was moving west at 12 mph and carrying maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts. The storm is expected to stay on that path and intensify over the next 24 hours, the weather service said.
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Anonymous

#17 Postby Anonymous » Thu Apr 17, 2003 11:32 pm

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is changing their forecast somewhat. The JTWC has been forecasting a curve to the northwest over the last few days. However, the subtropical ridge over the north Pacific has been abnormally strong. The high extends all the way into the SCS (South China Sea). I am sticking with my original forecast with a track over the northern Philippines.

Kujira has been gradually weakening since the typhoon is moving into a slightly less favorable environment. The JTWC is forecasting tropical storm force winds in 72 hours. They believe Kujira will move more northwesterly towards an area of strong vertical wind shear. However, the JTWC has had a northerly bias so far with Kujira. I expect a slightly stronger typhoon and a more westerly track over the next three days. We will see...
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