EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#61 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri May 27, 2022 4:37 am


Ah, starting early with the ASCAT misses I see. Good to know that at least one thing is consistent. Wouldn't be surprised if the next pass that actually hits the invest finds a closed center, though. Development trends seem to be indicating that we should have a tropical depression within the next day or so.

Hurricane2021 wrote:Is it possible for the NHC to send a recon flight to 91E (future Agatha) during its peak intensity?

Given the threat to land that 91E proposes, they should send multiple recon flights into the storm. Fingers crossed one manages to catch it near landfall without technical issues, which is where the storm should be near max intensity. I'd be extremely surprised (and concerned for the future) if the NHC stopped sending recon planes into storms that posed threats to land, regardless of basin.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#62 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 27, 2022 5:46 am

Not looking too hot on IR tonight. GFS still drops this down to 950mb. Euro 980ish. Split the intensity and it's a solid Cat.2. It is on 31C waters so major isn't out the question yet.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#63 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri May 27, 2022 6:27 am

Models don’t know what they are talking about with intensity.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#64 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 6:55 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next day or so while it
moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Further development of
this system will be possible over the weekend while it turns
northward toward southern Mexico, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#65 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 7:16 am

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 27/1130Z

C. 13.5N

D. 96.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. PT IS ALSO 1.5. MET
IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#66 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 7:38 am

Convection looks so much worse compared to yesterday, would be kinda hilarious if this turns out to be another Pamela
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#67 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 8:26 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912022 05/27/22 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 40 52 60 70 75 66 60 57 57 57 59 60 59
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 40 52 60 70 75 66 47 34 29 27 27 31 29
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 42 45 45 37 30 28 27 27 33 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 8 6 5 1 2 5 2 7 10 8 8 2 6 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 0 2 5 5 5 6 -1 -2 -6 -1 2 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 193 193 192 204 191 208 230 317 106 169 230 285 306 211 213 95 104
SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.3 29.6 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.9 29.4 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 167 169 168 167 167 169 167 159 144 137 134 139 151 156 160
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 6 5 7 5 7 5 6 5 6 4
700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 75 77 77 76 72 73 70 72 75 78 79 79 75 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 8 10 13 15 16 18 19 11 8 7 8 9 13 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 12 8 17 32 34 46 58 98 101 120 109 110 100 83 61
200 MB DIV 34 41 75 81 107 202 173 146 128 104 110 129 86 104 148 154 100
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -3 -2 1 1 4 0 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 301 301 310 330 349 372 368 308 205 69 -53 -128 -142 -100 -7 81 126
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.3 16.9 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.1 97.6 98.1 98.5 99.0 99.2 99.0 98.4 97.6 96.9 96.4 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 4 6 6 5 3 1 3 5 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 38 38 42 51 60 66 66 58 36 19 8 6 6 6 13 15 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. 42. 44. 47. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 5. 1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 15. 27. 35. 45. 50. 41. 35. 32. 32. 32. 34. 35. 34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 96.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 05/27/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 7.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 5.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 1.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.2% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 37.2% 63.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.5% 42.4% 28.2% 16.3% 8.0% 51.1% 70.5% 47.9%
Bayesian: 0.4% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 3.1% 8.0% 14.5%
Consensus: 2.0% 24.3% 17.4% 5.5% 2.8% 30.5% 47.3% 20.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 13.0% 16.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 05/27/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#68 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 9:52 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912022 05/27/22 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 34 40 52 60 70 75 66 60 57 57 57 59 60 59
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 34 40 52 60 70 75 66 47 34 29 27 27 31 29
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 42 45 45 37 30 28 27 27 33 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 8 6 5 1 2 5 2 7 10 8 8 2 6 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 0 2 5 5 5 6 -1 -2 -6 -1 2 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 193 193 192 204 191 208 230 317 106 169 230 285 306 211 213 95 104
SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.3 29.6 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.9 29.4 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 167 169 168 167 167 169 167 159 144 137 134 139 151 156 160
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 6 5 7 5 7 5 6 5 6 4
700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 75 77 77 76 72 73 70 72 75 78 79 79 75 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 8 10 13 15 16 18 19 11 8 7 8 9 13 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 12 8 17 32 34 46 58 98 101 120 109 110 100 83 61
200 MB DIV 34 41 75 81 107 202 173 146 128 104 110 129 86 104 148 154 100
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -3 -2 1 1 4 0 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 301 301 310 330 349 372 368 308 205 69 -53 -128 -142 -100 -7 81 126
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.3 16.9 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.1 97.6 98.1 98.5 99.0 99.2 99.0 98.4 97.6 96.9 96.4 96.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 4 6 6 5 3 1 3 5 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 38 38 42 51 60 66 66 58 36 19 8 6 6 6 13 15 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. 42. 44. 47. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 5. 1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 15. 27. 35. 45. 50. 41. 35. 32. 32. 32. 34. 35. 34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 96.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 05/27/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 7.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 5.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.41 1.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.2% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 37.2% 63.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.5% 42.4% 28.2% 16.3% 8.0% 51.1% 70.5% 47.9%
Bayesian: 0.4% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 3.1% 8.0% 14.5%
Consensus: 2.0% 24.3% 17.4% 5.5% 2.8% 30.5% 47.3% 20.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 13.0% 16.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 05/27/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Very little shear.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#69 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 9:54 am

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All models pulling back on intensity
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#70 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri May 27, 2022 10:00 am

skyline385 wrote:Convection looks so much worse compared to yesterday, would be kinda hilarious if this turns out to be another Pamela

What do you mean? Its way more organized.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#71 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 27, 2022 10:07 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#72 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri May 27, 2022 10:18 am

skyline385 wrote:Convection looks so much worse compared to yesterday, would be kinda hilarious if this turns out to be another Pamela

On the contrary, I'd say this has made significant progress regarding its organization this morning. This may very well be classifiable by 18z but we'll see.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E: Breaking News=Recon for Sunday afternoon

#73 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 10:25 am

There will be recon for Sunday afternoon resources permitting.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1110 AM EDT FRI 27 MAY 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z MAY 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-001

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION ON
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 13.5N 99.0W FOR 29/1730Z,
RESOURCES PERMITTING.
3. REMARK: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E: Breaking News=Recon for Sunday afternoon

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 10:27 am

I’m not a fan of the lack of banding but this is probably closed based on satellite imagery so I’d classify.
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EPAC: INVEST 91E: Recon for Sunday afternoon

#75 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 11:18 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Convection looks so much worse compared to yesterday, would be kinda hilarious if this turns out to be another Pamela

What do you mean? Its way more organized.

It's getting better now. There was not much going on in the morning and late last night compared to this from yesterday

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E: Recon for Sunday afternoon

#76 Postby aspen » Fri May 27, 2022 11:28 am

skyline385 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Convection looks so much worse compared to yesterday, would be kinda hilarious if this turns out to be another Pamela

What do you mean? Its way more organized.

It's getting better now. There was not much going on in the morning and late last night compared to this from yesterday

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220527/4477520014f33ae19192d49b30faa23f.jpg

That’s from around this time yesterday.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E: Recon for Sunday afternoon

#77 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 12:02 pm

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PHNC 271700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E) ***REISSUED***//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261651Z MAY 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 261700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 94.4W TO 13.5N 99.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 96.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.0N 96.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1640NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A 271227Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET
TO THE NORTH WITH IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, NEUTRAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.


Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E: Recon for Sunday afternoon

#78 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 12:24 pm

I thought that the big city of Acapulco was going to be out of it but it looks more and more that it may be close to the landfall if it continues more west on the movement.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E: Recon for Sunday afternoon

#79 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 12:32 pm

TD later today or on Saturday.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 250 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form later today or Saturday while it moves westward
at 5 to 10 mph. This system is expected to turn northward and
strengthen while it moves toward southern Mexico over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force winds are becoming
increasingly likely along the coast of southern Mexico early next
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall,
which could cause flash flooding, is possible along coastal sections
of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Berg
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#80 Postby MGC » Fri May 27, 2022 1:06 pm

Starting to spin up at a good rate...should be a TC within the next 24 hours IMO.......MGC
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