EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

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skyline385
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EPAC: INVEST 91E

#81 Postby skyline385 » Fri May 27, 2022 1:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:I thought that the big city of Acapulco was going to be out of it but it looks more and more that it may be close to the landfall if it continues more west on the movement.

Both HMON and GFS have it turning NE and ramming straight into Salina Cruz which looks like a big city as well. It also gives it additional time to develop because of the longer route.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#82 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 1:54 pm

No TD yet on 18z best track:

EP, 91, 2022052718, , BEST, 0, 130N, 975W, 25, 1008, LO


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 2:00 pm

Does the NHC think this doesn't meet the organization criteria somehow? NHC recognizes that this is closed off based off the "LO" designation.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#84 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 2:01 pm

20220527 1730 12.8 97.6 T1.5/1.5 91E 91E
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#85 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri May 27, 2022 2:16 pm

Yeah I would say this is a TC at this point...
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 2:24 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 2:30 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#88 Postby galaxy401 » Fri May 27, 2022 2:52 pm

Looks like a TD now. That microwave proves it to me.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#89 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 27, 2022 3:30 pm

Probably a tropical cyclone. IMO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#90 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 3:40 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#91 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 4:37 pm

This area Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca.may be bulls eye for landfall of future Agatha. Raining now with the northern bands.

 https://twitter.com/CNPC_MX/status/1530300589397229568


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#92 Postby tolakram » Fri May 27, 2022 4:51 pm

Hi all,

it's early in the season but since I had to do some cleanup I think an important reminder is needed.

Rule #12: Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

We take this very seriously. Sometimes people get frustrated and slip up, it happens, but it's always worth a reminder. Thanks!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#93 Postby Grifforzer » Fri May 27, 2022 4:57 pm

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first gale warning from NHC Miami on 91E.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#94 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 5:14 pm

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
area of 1008 mb low pressure located roughly 250 nm S-SW of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, near 13N97W, continue to show signs of
gradually improved organization today. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring in clusters and short bands within
210 nm E and 180 nm W of the broad low. Environmental conditions
are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or
so. Further development of this system will be possible over the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5
to 10 kt, and interests in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and
southern Mexico during the next few days. In addition, the low is
expected to produce gale force winds across the eastern
semicircle of the low by around 1200 UTC Sun. Increasing winds
and seas are being seen across the offshore waters of southern
Mexico today and will continue through the weekend. This system
has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#95 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 5:51 pm

Let's see if the next ASCAT does not miss the low center later tonight to see if a tropical cyclone has formed or not.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#96 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri May 27, 2022 6:06 pm

Wide view! Very good outflow structure and shear appears to be quite low. I wouldn't be shocked to see a healthy strengthening once it gets going.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2022 6:09 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#98 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 27, 2022 6:18 pm

1.5 is enough for a TD classification. :uarrow:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#99 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2022 6:23 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 27 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 200 miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico,
have increased in organization today. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form later tonight or on Saturday while it moves
westward at 5 to 10 mph. This system is expected to turn northward
and strengthen while it moves toward southern Mexico this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force or hurricane-force winds are becoming
increasingly likely along the coast of southern Mexico early next
week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible along
coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next
few days, which could cause flash flooding and mudslides.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#100 Postby aspen » Fri May 27, 2022 7:13 pm

The HWRF has become a little more bearish with 91E now, only showing a peak in the 970s.
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