EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#261 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:09 am

I think PTC2 is building a LLC where that MLC is in all that convection. It clearly doesn’t have one yet, but PTC2 might change that with the convective boom. Also, this is straight up deep convection occurring because it’s producing hot towers as we approach diurnal minimum.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#262 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:12 am

Convectively, this is the best PTC2 has ever looked. The consistent blob of convection today might finally be enough to close off an LLC in the next 24 hours. If the center forms there, it could shift the track slightly north, perhaps closer to the HWRF/HMON.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#263 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:14 am

I agree 15 knots isn't horrible considering it's late-June. Remember all the storms we've tracked in this region/time of year that went like 25-30 knots?
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#264 Postby Teban54 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:44 am

I know looks can be deceiving, but this is by far the closest to a TD/TS that PTC2 has ever been.

Last edited by Teban54 on Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#265 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:56 am

Looks more impressive on visible loops, but the plane is finding no LLC near the convection with easterly winds only 25-30 kts. Just a wave axis on this recon mission.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#266 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:02 am

Teban54 wrote:I know looks can be deceiving, but this is by far the closest to a TD/TS that PTC2 has ever been.

https://i.ibb.co/Jnbs0w1/goes16-truecolor-02-L-202206280835.gif


55W SSTs working its magic as usual.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#267 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:23 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks more impressive on visible loops, but the plane is finding no LLC near the convection with easterly winds only 25-30 kts. Just a wave axis on this recon mission.

Yeah. And no low level clouds are entraining into the convection from the south west, indicating that no LLC has formed .
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ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#268 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:45 am

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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#269 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:12 am

PTC2 is producing 50 knot flight lvl winds. The system continues to improve on visible. Land interaction may disrupt this organization soon though.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#270 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:23 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#271 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:34 pm

I know there's some doubt about 02L's peak intensity, but we're talking the same region of the Caribbean that spawned Eta & Iota.. in November. I can see this making a run for hurricane status right before landfall.
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ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#272 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:50 pm

Once it clears SA, It has almost 48 hours over warm 28C with very light shear. I am not sure why there is so much doubt about NHC’s intensity forecast.

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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#273 Postby zzh » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:58 pm

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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#274 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:36 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I know there's some doubt about 02L's peak intensity, but we're talking the same region of the Caribbean that spawned Eta & Iota.. in November. I can see this making a run for hurricane status right before landfall.


And Iris...and Joan...and Janet...and Felix...

The point is, I agree, this is a notorious region of the Western Atlantic that typically can support rapidly intensifying systems under the right circumstances, despite such storms seemingly having limited distance until an inevitable CA landfall. It's June, so I'm most certainly not expecting PTC2 to become a major system. However, what does concern me is how even a Cat 1 hurricane or a TS can do a lot of damage in this region (especially with regards to human lives), much like what we saw with Nate in 2017 or Cesar in 1996.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#275 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:51 pm

skyline385 wrote:Once it clears SA, It has almost 48 hours over warm 28C with very light shear. I am not sure why there is so much doubt about NHC’s intensity forecast.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220628/7a7dc50afb158b0c8662dc33eb72e414.jpg

The doubt is probably due to the possibility that PTC2 might not have a good structure to take advantage of those SSTs. If it fails to develop until it pulls away from South America, then those 36-48 hours will be it starting from the ground up. If it has developed before then and doesn’t get too tangled in SA, then there’s a good shot of it becoming a hurricane.

As of right now, I think its most likely landfall intensity will be comparable to Cesar ‘96 and Nana ‘20.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#276 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:29 pm

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Once it clears SA, It has almost 48 hours over warm 28C with very light shear. I am not sure why there is so much doubt about NHC’s intensity forecast.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220628/7a7dc50afb158b0c8662dc33eb72e414.jpg

The doubt is probably due to the possibility that PTC2 might not have a good structure to take advantage of those SSTs. If it fails to develop until it pulls away from South America, then those 36-48 hours will be it starting from the ground up. If it has developed before then and doesn’t get too tangled in SA, then there’s a good shot of it becoming a hurricane.

As of right now, I think its most likely landfall intensity will be comparable to Cesar ‘96 and Nana ‘20.

Both hurricane models show development only after it clears SA as a mess and they still support a Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#277 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:08 pm

It looks even better on Satellite than it did a couple of hours ago.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#278 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:11 pm

I would had sweared it had a closed circulation just by looking at the satellite loop before looking at the recon.
I am sure land interaction will help it close a surface circulation with that healthy MLC it now has.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#279 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:16 pm

NDG wrote:I would had sweared it had a closed circulation just by looking at the satellite loop before looking at the recon.
I am sure land interaction will help it close a surface circulation with that healthy MLC it now has.


Yeah South America might actually help it more than hurt it. PTC 2 resembles a tropical cyclone much more today than yesterday. My bet is tomorrow morning or afternoon on classification.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#280 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:04 pm

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